Sponsor: For The Blogy’s 2021 coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Winter is coming. So whether you’re battling the late-seas0n cold inside Beaver Stadium or huddling up at home, gear up with our collection of Penn State sweatshirts, hoodies, jackets and more right HERE.

*Each FANATICS purchase you make helps support For The Blogy.

Introduction

Oh man, what a terrible loss. After winning nine straight games following the home loss to Iowa in 2020, the Nittany Lions’ streak is over. The team jumped on top of the Hawkeyes 17-3 and then the bottom dropped out when Sean Clifford left the contest with an apparent upper body injury. After he departed, Iowa outscored Penn State 20-3. The difference in offensive performance before Clifford’s injury and after was stunning. It’s borderline masochistic to evaluate the team before and after Cliff left the game but that’s what I’m going to do. I hate that Penn State lost the game but I also firmly believe they were the better team and it makes me feel better to show it.

Continue reading

Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!

Introduction

Raise your hand if you predicted back in August that this Saturday’s Penn State-Iowa tilt shoehorned inside Kinnick Stadium would feature a pair of Top 5 teams.

Put your hand down, liar.

Sure, Blue-and-White/Black-and-Gold LASIK patients might have envisioned early season success for their OWN team, but given the September gauntlet the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes both faced it’s a minor miracle neither squad has a blemish in 2021. And so here we are, just a few days away from the biggest Big Ten game that didn’t include Ohio State since…since…man, IDK. The 2015 Big Ten Championship between Top 5 Iowa and Top 5 Michigan State?

Continue reading

Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!

Introduction

Another Monday morning, another tolerable trip into the office as we all ride the high of another Penn State victory – the Nittany Lions fifth this season and ninth in a row dating back to last season’s fake season. Against the Hoosiers, Penn State’s defense was its normal dominant self. Nuff said there. The offense, for really the first time in 2021, showed a pulse in the run game while the normally in-tune passing attack sputtered along as if a few hazard lights popped up on the dashboard. We’ll explore those trends and much more as we patiently wait for one of the biggest football weekends in many a year.

Continue reading

Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!

Introduction

To be honest, I’m writing this during the halftime of the Villanova game because the stats that we’re going to get out of this game don’t matter. Penn State is going to win. The defense has been awesome and will continue being awesome, Sean Clifford and Ta’Quan Roberson will throw for a couple more TDs (probably), and in all likelihood, the run game will keep spinning its tires. That’s where I want to focus today – the run game. In the first half of the Villanova game, the Nittany Lions averaged 1.1 YPC running the ball – well below their already-lackluster 3.8 YPC for the season. In the three games prior to Saturday, Penn State’s offense generated 68% of its total yards in the air. Against Villanova, 84% of Penn State’s 509 total yards came via the passing game. How does this bode for the team going forward? Has an FBS team had this uneven of pass/run ratio and been #elite?

Continue reading

Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!

Introduction

Penn State is 3-0 with two wins over ranked opponents! James Franklin’s squad is off to a great start to the year and the Whiteout victory over Auburn keeps the 2021 snowball building. It’s early, but doesn’t this team and this season already feel special? This edition of Penn State football is resilient as evidenced by the fact that the Nittany Lions seemingly had to beat two opponents on Saturday – Auburn and the SEC refs. A team of a lesser caliber would’ve folded after some of the calls (or non-calls), but not this group. They are a team of immense character and are really starting to get rolling. I love that I get to do this every week!

Continue reading

Sponsor: Looking for the perfect Whiteout shirt for Saturday!?!?! Well, you’re SOL because there’s no way FANATICS is gonna get it to you by then. Show you’ve learned your lesson, procrastinator, by ordering Penn State gear for the remaining 5 home games using our Fanatics link HERE.

*Each FANATICS purchase helps support For The Blogy.

Introduction

Ah, Whiteout week. What a time to be on social media. Since Sunday the trash talk has flowed like stock footage of a mountain stream in a 1980s Busch beer commercial (speaking of trash talk, note to Auburn fans: James Franklin has been spouting his 1-0 mantra for years. Get over it). Crowd noise. Stadium size. Speed of athletes. Those trivial topics, and many more, have littered the Twitterverse for days now. One topic, however, that we’ve found to be not only interesting but decently researched has been the Jekyll/Hyde home and away statistical splits of Auburn QB Bo Nix.

The hyperlinked article (above) concludes with the following sentence: Penn State’s pass defense has given up 411 yards in 2 games and ranks no better than 68th nationally against the pass. Let’s see if Nix can take advantage. Fact check: OK that’s technically true. But the context of this stat is lacking. Against FBS competition, the Penn State defense has faced 41 pass attempts per game, which puts them tied for 15^th most in the country. The Nittany Lions have allowed 5.0 yards per pass attempt — which is tied for 16^th-best nationally — and opposing QBs have posted a collective 95.8 Passer Rating (15^th).

So, sure, they’ve given up some yards but – who cares? If Bo Nix throws for 205 yards at 5 YPA, Penn State will win Saturday. That being said, let’s take a real look at the differences between the home and away splits of both QBs spotlighted on college football’s grandest stage – Nix and Sean Clifford. How have Nix and Clifford been in a real context against their opposition? You’re about to find out!

Continue reading

Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!

Introduction

Two weeks. Two quality wins.

Throughout the off-season plenty of Penn State pundits circled the Ball State sandwich date between Wisconsin and Auburn as a potential #TrapGame™. On paper, it was a valid concern. In 2020, the Cardinals went 7-1, won the MAC championship, and capped the season with a convincing bowl victory over shorthanded San Jose State. On top of that, Ball State returned 20 starters this season, 14 of which were “super seasons” as the FS1 announcers mentioned at least 10 times on Saturday. So, they had success and experience. But they didn’t have the talent, strength, speed, or coaching that Penn State had, which might explain why the Lions breezed by the Cardinals for their 300^th win in Beaver Stadium. It wasn’t a complete performance, but James Franklin’s bunch showed improvements in certain areas (run game) compared to last week and, most importantly, escaped without any major injuries. The Whiteout awaits Auburn next week but before we get into that, let’s dive into some B10/MACtion crossover excitement!

Quick Hitters

1. Jordan Stout update: On Saturday our do-everything kicker converted 8 of 9 PAT/FGs, punted 3 times for an average of 51.3 yards, which actually LOWERED his total for the season, and forced a touchback on every kickoff. I will accept NO more Jordan Stout hate.
2. For only the third time in his career, Sean Clifford completed at least 70 percent of his passes – the other two coming early in 2019 against Buffalo and Maryland. In fact, Clifford’s more-accurate-the-usual afternoon – 21 of 29, 72% completion — marks the 11^th time in the James Franklin Era that Penn State’s starting QB hit the 70 percent threshold. Lions are 11-0 in those games
3.  In our Mike Yurcich: QB Whisperer blog post back in August, I predicted the PSU QB stats for the year (all PSU QBs). I wrote they’d average 61% completions (currently 63%); 34 passes per game (currently 32); and 8.5 YPA (currently: 7.8). So, thus far, we’re in the ballpark! We also tabbed Penn State QBs to throw 0.6 INT/game (currently 0!!) and 2.25 TD/game (currently 1.5). It’d be nice to see the TD’s click up a bit but, overall, we are right on pace.
4. Sure, Eastern Michigan – those guardians of the gray turf – isn’t a powerhouse, but even against a weaker opponent Wisconsin’s defense once again proved they’re the real deal. The Badgers allowed a total of 92 yards and 7 points against the EMU Eagles (they should totally be the EMU Emus). Penn State’s struggled last week (especially in the first half) but I would bet a considerable sum of money that Wisconsin finishes with a top 10 defense nationally.

Continue reading

Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!

Introduction

Welcome back! The 2021 Penn State football season started out with a nerve-racking but overall successful road game against a tough Wisconsin team. Through 30 paint-drying minutes, Penn State’s offense ran 22 plays and racked up a whopping 43 yards. Then, for whatever reason, the script flipped after halftime. Penn State got in a rhythm, went up-tempo on the first drive, hit Dotson deep for six, and teased us with what could be in Mike Yurcich’s offensive system. Truly it was a tale of two halves. – the best of times, the worst of times, an age of foolishness, an age of wisdom…all in four quarters.

Quick Hitters

Before we get into the numbers and nerdy stuff, we’re adding this section featuring 3 stats from offense, defense, or special teams that dictated the outcome of the game. Here we go…

1. For all of the criticism that Jordan Stout will get this week for missing an extra point and a FG from extra-point distance, don’t overlook that he averaged 53.9 yards-per-punt on 7 punts against Wisconsin. Those hidden yards on special teams often times are the difference between victory and defeat, especially in a low-scoring donnybrook like what we saw on Saturday.
2. Penn State finished +3 in turnover margin on Saturday. Out of 89 games with James Franklin as the head coach, the Nittany Lions have been +3 or better in 9 games – all wins.
3. Two weeks ago, we wrote about Penn State’s Defensive Scoring Efficiency (points allowed per-drive. PPD for short) being far worse in 2020 than previous years. In 2020, the Lions allowed 2.3 Points Per Drive. Against Wisconsin, the defense allowed an incredible 0.78 PPD. The best Defensive Scoring Efficiency mark since 2009 belongs to the 2011 Alabama defense that allowed 0.62 PPP for the entire season. This Nittany Lion team (probably) won’t sustain this rate but, man, did they need every bit of that performance on Saturday.

Continue reading

Introduction

Since 2004, Penn State’s annual Whiteout has grown into one of the biggest spectacles in college football and college sports overall. Two-page Sports Illustrated photo spreads, ESPN spots like this video from 2012, and viral moments like Michigan being forced to call a timeout on the first play from scrimmage in 2019, have all elevated this one-time promotional gimmick and made it the greatest college football tradition of the 21^st century. But, while the hype of the Whiteout is nearly unmatched, does it give Penn State an actual advantage on the field? Are there some quantifiable, statistical signs that emerge because of the Whiteout crowd?

The Opponents & Tidbits

Before we get into the specifics, let’s take a look at the teams who’ve been schedule as Penn State’s Whiteout opponent over the years, starting with Purdue in 2004. Because of the Whiteout’s ‘circle the date’ stature, it’s no surprise that historical Big Ten heavyweights Michigan (6 Whiteout appearances) and Ohio State (5 Whiteout appearances) dominate the table below.

Tidbits:

• Penn State is 8-8 (50%) in Whiteout games but 90-22 (80%) at home since 2004.
• Penn State is 4-2 against Michigan in Whiteouts and 2-3 against Ohio State.
• Only 2 games (2007 Notre Dame and 2011 Alabama) have been out-of-conference games. Penn State is 1-1 in these situations. The 2021 Whiteout is against Auburn.
• Penn State’s Whiteout opponents’ final records were 154-56 combined (73%) and included 9 teams that won 10+ games; only 2 teams (2007 ND and 2008 Illinois) finished with losing records.
• Whiteout Kick-off Times:
  • Noon: 1 (2015 Michigan-Loss)
  • Late Afternoon (3:30-6:00 PM): 5 (2-3; wins 2005 Ohio State and 2013 Michigan)
  • Night (7:30 or 8:00): 10 (record: 6-4)
• Both Alabama (2011) and OSU (2014) won national championships in the years that they were the Whiteout opponents. 2012 OSU was also undefeated but ineligible for postseason play.

Continue reading

 Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift! 

Introduction

Do you hate math? Do you also hate crude attempts to over-quantify something with tremendous uncertainty? Well, you’re in the wrong place then. But, since you’re already here, might as well stick around and see what my computer says is going to happen in each Penn State game during the 2021 season.

Last year, I developed a system (WAR) that allows us to estimate a team’s offensive, defensive, and overall efficiencies based on previous game-by-game performances. For the most part, it’s a useful retrospective tool that can also effectively predict the outcome of future games. In some unpublished work, I used this method to predict the entire 2019-2020 bowl calendar. Out of 39 games, my system correctly picked 31 straight-up winners (79%), 25 winners against-the-spread (64%), and 20 O/U (51%). Yes, it was a really small sample size, but that trial run showed there’s some potential in this system as a prognosticating tool.

Now, the obvious benefit of using this system during bowl season is that you have at least 12 games worth of recent data. In this exercise – forecasting each 2021 Penn State game – all our data is pretty dusty. Except for injuries, opt-outs, or suspensions, the bowl team is THE team. In August, the team is some amount of last year’s squad and coaching staff blended with new recruits, new transfers, and new schemes. Throw in COVID-related schedule and roster variances throughout college football from 2020, and this exercise gets even more difficult.

So, before we start, an ask of you dear reader – don’t nitpick this. Teams go up and down every year and some meet expectations, some exceed expectations, and some are Michigan (i.e. constantly underperforming). The dog days of August aren’t the best time to try and predict what will happen in November or December, but we’re doing it anyway. So don’t bust open your piggybanks just yet. This is nothing more than some fodder as we sweat through summer and await the fall.

Continue reading