Welcome to For The Blogy’s Bankroll Challenge presented by PlayAction Pools.

It’s completely FREE to join and, at the end of the college football season, one lucky winner is going to win a signed 16×20 picture  of Saquon Barkley (below) courtesy of our partners at Fanatics.

The contest will operate as a virtual sportsbook throughout the College Football Season.

Players will start with a fantasy bankroll of 10,000 shares and have the opportunity to build their bankroll with correct picks throughout the season. Players will be able to make picks on the Point Spread, Over/Under and Moneyline.

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Introduction

Since 2004, Penn State’s annual Whiteout has grown into one of the biggest spectacles in college football and college sports overall. Two-page Sports Illustrated photo spreads, ESPN spots like this video from 2012, and viral moments like Michigan being forced to call a timeout on the first play from scrimmage in 2019, have all elevated this one-time promotional gimmick and made it the greatest college football tradition of the 21^st century. But, while the hype of the Whiteout is nearly unmatched, does it give Penn State an actual advantage on the field? Are there some quantifiable, statistical signs that emerge because of the Whiteout crowd?

The Opponents & Tidbits

Before we get into the specifics, let’s take a look at the teams who’ve been schedule as Penn State’s Whiteout opponent over the years, starting with Purdue in 2004. Because of the Whiteout’s ‘circle the date’ stature, it’s no surprise that historical Big Ten heavyweights Michigan (6 Whiteout appearances) and Ohio State (5 Whiteout appearances) dominate the table below.

Tidbits:

• Penn State is 8-8 (50%) in Whiteout games but 90-22 (80%) at home since 2004.
• Penn State is 4-2 against Michigan in Whiteouts and 2-3 against Ohio State.
• Only 2 games (2007 Notre Dame and 2011 Alabama) have been out-of-conference games. Penn State is 1-1 in these situations. The 2021 Whiteout is against Auburn.
• Penn State’s Whiteout opponents’ final records were 154-56 combined (73%) and included 9 teams that won 10+ games; only 2 teams (2007 ND and 2008 Illinois) finished with losing records.
• Whiteout Kick-off Times:
  • Noon: 1 (2015 Michigan-Loss)
  • Late Afternoon (3:30-6:00 PM): 5 (2-3; wins 2005 Ohio State and 2013 Michigan)
  • Night (7:30 or 8:00): 10 (record: 6-4)
• Both Alabama (2011) and OSU (2014) won national championships in the years that they were the Whiteout opponents. 2012 OSU was also undefeated but ineligible for postseason play.

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How to view a Penn State football program firmly ensconced among the nation’s top title contenders, yet also a leader among that frustrating tier of perpetual playoff bridesmaids; a team widely regarded as the surest threat to Ohio State’s Big Ten dominance, yet coming off a historically-horrendous five-game losing streak to open 2020?

Let’s consider our Dear Old State through fresh eyes, and see it both ways….

MAYBE IT’S ACTUALLY BAD

We can start with the obvious. The team started 0-5, something that had previously occurred exactly ZERO times in Happy Valley, despite two World Wars, a pre-Zoom pandemic, social upheaval, 9/11, lousy recruiting with awful teams, and then an emotionally-devastating scandal resulting in ludicrous sanctions meant to devastate the program’s ability to compete. Zero. So cry me a river about some new coaches and missed practice time.

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It’s often said – usually by football people – that football is the ultimate team sport, that the success or failure of any given play is determined not by performance of the two or three players who actually touched the pigskin but by the performances of all 11 players working in unison, and how well they did against the 11 players working in unison to stop them.

So while the importance of the quarterback position has never been more prominent at all levels of the game, and while college teams typically need at least a few explosive plays from the quote-unquote skill guys each week, the teams who enjoy the most consistent success at the highest levels are the teams who get the most consistently productive performances from the most anonymous players on the field – the offensive and defensive linemen.

As far as Penn State is concerned as the 2021 season rapidly approaches, all eyes are on and all opinions are about No. 14. And yes, Sean Clifford must be more consistent and take better care of the football if the Nittany Lions are to have any kind of season to write home about. But Clifford has plenty of weapons to throw to and just as many behind him to carry the rock, plus a new offensive coordinator and system that promises to take some pressure off him and put it on the opposing defense.

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 Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift! 

Introduction

Do you hate math? Do you also hate crude attempts to over-quantify something with tremendous uncertainty? Well, you’re in the wrong place then. But, since you’re already here, might as well stick around and see what my computer says is going to happen in each Penn State game during the 2021 season.

Last year, I developed a system (WAR) that allows us to estimate a team’s offensive, defensive, and overall efficiencies based on previous game-by-game performances. For the most part, it’s a useful retrospective tool that can also effectively predict the outcome of future games. In some unpublished work, I used this method to predict the entire 2019-2020 bowl calendar. Out of 39 games, my system correctly picked 31 straight-up winners (79%), 25 winners against-the-spread (64%), and 20 O/U (51%). Yes, it was a really small sample size, but that trial run showed there’s some potential in this system as a prognosticating tool.

Now, the obvious benefit of using this system during bowl season is that you have at least 12 games worth of recent data. In this exercise – forecasting each 2021 Penn State game – all our data is pretty dusty. Except for injuries, opt-outs, or suspensions, the bowl team is THE team. In August, the team is some amount of last year’s squad and coaching staff blended with new recruits, new transfers, and new schemes. Throw in COVID-related schedule and roster variances throughout college football from 2020, and this exercise gets even more difficult.

So, before we start, an ask of you dear reader – don’t nitpick this. Teams go up and down every year and some meet expectations, some exceed expectations, and some are Michigan (i.e. constantly underperforming). The dog days of August aren’t the best time to try and predict what will happen in November or December, but we’re doing it anyway. So don’t bust open your piggybanks just yet. This is nothing more than some fodder as we sweat through summer and await the fall.

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In What’s Becoming an Annual Tradition, Fox 8 New Orleans Sports Reporter/AP Poll Voter/Friend of the Blog Garland Gillen Spoke With FTB About His Preseason Rankings on the Eve of Monday’s Release

Sponsor: For The Blogy’s preseason coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Gear up for College Football season with Nike’s 2021 Penn State sideline collection of polos, t-shirts, hats, pullovers and more right HERE.

*Each FANATICS purchase helps support For The Blogy.

FTB: No need to beat around the bush here…did you rank Penn State?

GG: I actually don’t have them ranked, and it’s largely due to their quarterback play. Not that impressed with a lot of the quarterback play in the Big Ten, to be honest. I know Penn State rebounded from an 0-5 start and finished the second half of the season blazing, but that doesn’t erase a preseason Top 10 team starting 0-5. I think a lot of this season falls on Sean Clifford – when he protected the ball, Penn State won; when he turned the ball over, they lost. So you have a guy who was up-and-down last season, and now the backups aren’t experienced after Will Levis transferred to Kentucky, so that security blanket is gone. I know (James) Franklin is killing it in recruiting, so that bodes well for the future, but obviously those guys are a year away from being on the roster.

Now, with all that said, I have Wisconsin ranked No. 13 in my preseason poll. If Penn State goes to Madison and beats Wisconsin, then yeah they’re in the next week. Firmly in. Nothing is written in stone. After Week 1, my preseason poll could be flipped upside-down. We won’t have to wait long to see where Penn State stands.

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One of the big storylines you’ll hear from TV talking heads or national media concerning Penn State in the coming weeks will be how the Nittany Lions will look to “bounce back” from a 4-5 season or are determined to “take the bad taste out of their mouths” after a 4-5 season, or … insert your well-worn cliché of choice here after a 4-5 season.

Though there is some truth to that – Penn State’s players and coaches are prideful guys, and much of the short-but-sour 2020 season was embarrassing, even if there weren’t many fans around to see it live – you have to wonder how much bouncing back this team will actually have to do this season.

Which is to say, Penn State had a bad record last season, but it wasn’t really a bad team. More like a decent-to-good team that just could not get out of its own way.

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 Thanks to the NCAA Granting Student-Athletes an Eligibility Mulligan in 2020, a Handful of Nittany Lions ‘Super’ Seniors Could Potentially Stick Around for Year 6

 Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift! 

For those unfamiliar with the reference, Van Wilder was the protagonist in a forgettable, low-budget National Lampoon movie about a Peter Pan college undergrad with no ambition to ever leave the ivy-laced utopia of campus life.

As you probably guessed, the film cast an uptight Dad threatening to cut-off Van Wilder’s tuition money, a curmudgeonly Dean searching for excuses to expel this campus king, and included a lot of life lessons learned through copious alcohol consumption at various themed-parties.

If you’re considering spending $3.99 to rent it…don’t.

The point we’re trying to make is that the NCAA’s decision not to count the 2020 football season against players’ collegiate eligibility has given – and will continue to give – prospects on the fringe of getting drafted the option of temporarily curbing life in the Real World for another year of fall football Saturdays.

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Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift! 

Introduction

Shortly after Mike Yurcich’s surprise hire as Penn State’s new offensive coordinator back in January, we used a wide array of basic and advanced stats to examine how well his previous offenses performed and why Nittany Lions fans’ initial excitement for what could be in 2021 was totally justified. Then, a couple of weeks ago, we crunched various numbers to figure out, at this this point in his career, whether Sean Clifford is more Trace McSorley or Christian Hackenberg. 

Today, we’ll sort of morph those two concepts together.

That is, since 2013, how have Yurcich’s quarterbacks performed and what might that portend for Sean Clifford in 2021? Statistically, we’re going to keep it simple, but I think (hope!) there are some nuggets in here that make us optimistic for the season.

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