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Introduction

Considering we’re above .500 in Over/Under selections and ‘Against The Spread’ picks thus far, hopefully you’re happy to see us again for what will be the final installment of our ‘Bowling For Dollars’ series.

Specifically, our Over/Under picks are 17-10  through the end of action Thursday and our ATS picks are at 14-13. Had you put $100 on ALL of our projected O/U and ATS selections (factoring in the standard casino -110 vig) you’d be up $518.21. Not bad.

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Introduction

For the newbies that missed our  initial bowl prognostication/Get Rich Quick scheme published on December 17th, shame on you…

…and welcome!

And to the loyal, never miss an ‘ABC’s of Penn State Football’ blog post crew (what we like to call our faithful ‘Read Or Dies’) here’s hoping you’ve been hammering the Over-Unders based off our WAR model’s projected point totals. Why? Well, our Over-Under selections are an insanely good 11-4 (73.3% winners). ATS…not so much. We’re 7-8…but hey, lots of bowl games left — at least there were at the time this was published (note: the Military Bowl and Fenway Bowl both bit the dust in the 15-20 minutes we took editing this piece.)

Additionally, just like in Part 1, we’re going to include some local flavor to these bowl picks by also selecting the best musician/band associated with the region. It’s fun. And we’re pro-fun.

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Introduction

Ah, bowl season…

…that magical time of year when we’re once again reminded that Montgomery, Alabama has a tourism bureau (for some reason), Tropical Smoothie Café exists (somewhere), and that middle-aged men shouldn’t wear bright blazers (ever).

It’s the unrivaled pageantry of your body congealing to the contours of your crumb-crusted barcalounger — brain numb, eyeballs dry and red from the lost, hollow hours spent watching mediocre football, sparse crowds, and soulless corporate mascots – wondering why you’ve never taken the wife and kids to Shreveport for a weekend? The guilt of depriving loved ones from experiencing a town with “So Much to Explore!” weighs on your conscience like a lead vest. Sips of warm, domestic beer briefly chase away the pain while Kent State’s walk-on right guard holds four fingers aloft as the third quarter expires. Inexplicably, you hold four fingers up, too.

(Stares into nothingness)

Anyway, like I said, it’s Bowl Season! 42 games! 42 excuses to put off all our adult responsibilities! 42 excuses to gamble!

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Introduction

In what might be the understatement of all understatements, Penn State’s rushing attack really struggled throughout 2021.

Like, really struggled.

Didn’t matter who carried the ball – Noah Cain, Keyvone Lee, John Lovett, Devyn Ford – or when they carried the ball for that matter – 1^st down, 3^rd down, garbage time, high-leverage situations – the Nittany Lions lack of consistency on the ground diluted the potency of Mike Yurcich’s offense as promising drive after promising drive suddenly stalled thanks to a barrage of bottlenecks at the LOS.

But, we wondered, just HOW bad was the Blue and White’s 2021 run production with respect to the rest of the FBS and Penn State’s historical averages? The masochist in us wants to know…so that’s where we’ll begin our after-season analytics investigation of the 2021 Penn State Nittany Lions.

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Introduction

For you Glass-Half-Fullers out there, the Penn State Nittany Lions finished the 2021 regular season with a winning record, which is something we couldn’t say at the end of last year. That’s the good. But for you Glass-Half-Empty Sky Screamers, the fact that the Nittany Lions slipped on several banana peels (starting roughly around the 10-minute mark of the 2^nd Quarter vs. Iowa) while stumbling across the finish line was hard to swallow and will leave an unpleasant aftertaste for the next 9 months. From 5-0 and No. 4 in the country to 2-5 in the last 7 and a non-New Year’s Day bowl participant. That’s the bad. Issues abound on both sides of the ball – issues we’ll have plenty of time to talk about in February and March as we wait for the snow to melt.

Today, though, let’s focus on the debacle in East Lansing. After gifting Michigan State a quick 14-point lead, the Lions fought back to take the lead before literally fumbling it away. Toss in an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance, missed kicks, and a complete lack of a running game and you have a recipe for disaster. Post-Pick-6 until about 2-minutes left in the 4^th, the wheels fell off and a season that blossomed with so much promise and hope cruelly wilted in the arms of Spartans WR Jayden Reed during a rather nonthreatening onside kick attempt.

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Introduction

Yes, I know it was Rutgers. And, yes, I know that Rutgers is Rutgers. But don’t rain on my parade, man. During a season that started out sweet, devolved into sour, and no matter what happens next Saturday will be tough to swallow in the end, Penn State’s 28-0 blanking of the Scarlet Knights in the home finale was oddly satisfying. The Nittany Lions defense totally dominated the overmatched Rutgers offense while, on the other side of the ball, a true freshman QB provided a much needed shot in the arm (pun intended) against a not-so-bad Rutgers defense. The team — not just one particular unit –played well in a performance that had us thinking back to the better days of September and early October.

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Introduction

There’s no sugarcoating it: As a fan, that absolutely sucked.

After a quarter of play it looked like Penn State would play the role of spoiler against the Wolverines. The Nittany Lions dominated total yards in the initial stanza to the tune of 145 to 15, drove deep in Michigan territory in each of their first two possessions while the defense ushered the winged helmets off the field with two 3-and-outs. But, despite that yardage discrepancy, Penn State could only muster 3 points, which allowed Michigan to keep doing Michigan things and not panic. The emotional rollercoaster that ensued proved far more stressful than entertaining as we watched Erick All effectively seal the deal with a 47-yard touchdown reception.

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Introduction

Penn State is back in the win column, which makes pounding out this piece way more fun than the previous three. So, hey, we’re off to a sunny start!

Now for the dark cloud…

Despite registering the 6^th W of the season, there remains concern about this instillation of Penn State ever becoming a complete team. The run game looked better, especially with respect to the performances of Noah Cain and Keyvone Lee. Jahan Dotson gave his usual superstar performance. The defense limited Maryland to a very low point total and the game was sealed with an interception by a former Lackawanna Falcons safety, Ji’Ayir Brown. With that established, the offense only gained 2.8 yards-per-rush; the defense surrendered more than 400 yards, which is too many, and though it felt like the Nittany Lions had complete control, and the game was still technically in doubt with under 10 minutes remaining. So, a win’s a win but there are still things to explore and issues to fix.

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Introduction

Welp, another postgame analytics write-up following a Penn State loss, although this one is a little less demoralizing than the previous two. The Nittany Lions hung with the heavily favored Buckeyes from first whistle to last whistle but just couldn’t finish the job. Offensively, two big turnovers directly led to 10 Buckeye points, which was ultimately the difference in the game. The defense played very well and held the best offense in the conference, if not the nation, in check except for a few backbreaking chunk plays. Once again, this game reaffirmed a couple of things: 1. Penn State remains Ohio State’s toughest competition within the Big Ten year in and year out. And 2., the gap between Ohio State and everyone else in the conference is really, really wide.

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Introduction

“Oh man, what a terrible loss.” – Me, Oct. 9, 2021.

“Oh man, what a terrible loss.” – Me, Oct. 23, 2021.

Hope – the most dangerous of four-letter words – rested on the figurative shoulders and literal “right torso” (as ABC’s sideline reporter kept calling it, as if humans have two) of QB1 Sean Clifford following a disappointing, but excusable, setback at Iowa. And then Saturday happened. What began as a foregone conclusion on Tuesday – no way Clifford plays vs. Illinois, but no way Penn State loses to Illinois, either – turned into the most unpleasant surprise in recent memory – Oh wow, Clifford’s starting, and Oh Wow, Penn State lost to a bunch players the opposing coach doesn’t want on the roster. In the most ‘Big Ten’ of Big Ten games, Illinois posted 10 times more rushing yards than passing yards but couldn’t really score, as Penn State’s ‘Bend but Don’t Break’ defense once again showed off its Stretch Armstrong pliability. The Nittany Lions offense, with a clearly hobbled quarterback, couldn’t muster enough production to score more than 10 points in 60 minutes of play against an Illini defense that was allowing 28.7 points per game prior to Saturday.

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