FTB Goes Bowling For Dollars, Part 3
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Introduction
Considering we’re above .500 in Over/Under selections and ‘Against The Spread’ picks thus far, hopefully you’re happy to see us again for what will be the final installment of our ‘Bowling For Dollars’ series.
Specifically, our Over/Under picks are 17-10 through the end of action Thursday and our ATS picks are at 14-13. Had you put $100 on ALL of our projected O/U and ATS selections (factoring in the standard casino -110 vig) you’d be up $518.21. Not bad.
Methodology
For the bowl predictions, I took the lines from CBS Sports. These lines are from December 8th, so there’s likely to be some shifting. Finally, I didn’t use the WAR model exactly as described in the article above. I adjusted the ratings for a strength-of-schedule (SOS) by conference using a combination of my own data and realtimerpi.com data.
In the tables for each game we have the teams, gambling data, and other general info for the bowl. Then, the table features my offensive, defensive, and overall efficiency ratings and rankings. For offense and overall efficiency, higher is better. For defense, lower is better. Then, in the bottom-center are the predicted score and winner (outright and ATS) and along with projected total points versus O/U number.
Bowl Preview
The Game: Because apparently there’s nothing else to do in New Jersey, Rutgers stayed ‘football-ready’ for the entire month of December…and wouldn’t you know, it paid off! Schiano’s squad steps in for COVID-ravaged Texas A&M. The Scarlet Knights will face 10-win Wake Forest. Despite operating a bizarre looking RPO attack (we call it RPSlo because the mesh point between the QB and RB takes forever) the Demon Deacons bring an explosive offense (15th in point-per-drive; 43rd in yards-per-drive).
The Music: Ya know, until researching this, I would’ve bet my @ForTheBlogy salary that Lynyrd Skynyrd was from Alabama, and I would’ve been wrong as they hail from Jacksonville, Florida. Along with the Allman Brothers, Skynyrd is one of the original Southern Rock bands to emerge following the British Invasion of the 60’s. More than 50 years since their debut, Skynyrd still has plenty of shelf-life. Go to any piano bar across this great nation and you’re guaranteed to hear “Sweet Home Alabama” sung by a drunken bachelorette party member. Or go to any rock show and some stoned douche in the crowd will yell for “Freebird!” Ironically, neither song reached higher than 8th on the US charts but their legacy lives on forever. Top Spotify Hit: Sweet Home Alabama (850 million)
The Game: Central Michigan coach/Shark “enthusiast”Jim McElwain, moved bowl operations 317 miles east to El Paso when the Chips’ Arizona Bowl opponent opted out due to COVID and the Sun Bowl extended a mid-week invitation to replace Miami. Speaking of COVID, the Cougars are going through another coaching transition because of the state’s vaccine mandate and haven’t quite figured out their identity after the departure of Mike Leach. They do hold victories over Oregon State and ASU as well as the Apple Cup trophy.
The Music: At the Drive-In was an American rock band from El Paso formed in 1994. I’ve given a few of their songs a listen and they’re interesting. They have a broad mix of songs from fast, hard rock to slower emo songs. Their last album In-ter a-li-a reached #39 of the Billboard top 200. Top Spotify Hit: One Armed Scissor (24 million).
The Game: And here we go – the playoffs! In the first game, we have Alabama (12-1, SEC Champions) facing off against the last undefeated team in FBS – the Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0, AAC Champions). Finally, we have something that people have been wanting for years – new blood and a G5 team in the playoff. Even on an adjusted basis, where the AAC takes a hit versus the SEC, Cincy looks the playoff-worthy part with the 12th offense, 9th defense, and 6th overall profile. Unadjusted, they’re 7th, 5th, and 3rd. Bama is 3rd overall with the 2nd best adjusted offense (3rd unadjusted). I would never bet against a motivated Nick Saban led team and the SEC Championship game (41-24 win over UGA) proved the Tide are motivated. But the Bearcats have experience and have proven they can win big games (24-13 @ Notre Dame) this season. I like the Tide to win but take Cincy and the points.
The Music: As we head back to the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex for what seems like the 20th time, we’ll shine a light on a contemporary star – Post Malone. Out of all the artists we’ve featured in our 3-part bowl preview, Mr. Malone is the only one with songs that have 2+ billion Spotify streams. Several others have exceeded 1 billion. Born in Syracuse but reared in Grapevine, Post started playing music in his teen years and from 2017-2021 has had more commercial success than nearly every other artist with his blend of pop, rap, rock, and other genres. Flipping through his hits like “Rockstar”, “Circles”, and “Sunflower” you see a wide breadth of styles that he and his collaborators adapt to make their own and turn into songs with wide appeal, which seems a difficult task…but they make it work. Top Spotify Hit: “rockstar” (feat. 21 Savage) (2.3 billion)
The Game: It’s Khaki vs. Kirby. Here, we have the Michigan Wolverines (12-1, Big Ten Champs) facing the Georgia Bulldogs (12-1). Michigan, coached by every Penn State fan’s favorite coach not named James Franklin in Jim Harbaugh, finally broke through in 2021 to beat the rival Buckeyes and win the conference. Their recipe? Bring a suffocating defense featuring the two best pass rushers in America and couple that with an elite old-school run attack. Georgia has the best FBS defense in a decade in points allowed. Over that time, only the 2011 Alabama defense has allowed fewer than 10 PPG to FBS opponents. This year, UGA held FBS teams to 9.8 PPG (117 points total), and nearly half of them were in their last game. Figure this game will finish within a TD either way.
The Music: Sometimes you’ve just got to give the people what they want. And if you’ve been a Penn State fan since at least 2016, you know that Kodak Black was a team favorite in the glory years (2016-18) of the James Franklin Era. And now, Kodak is one of my favorite rappers, as well. He’s sometimes described as a “mumble rapper” which doesn’t do him justice. His first commercial hit, “Tunnel Vision”, is a very thoughtful story about some of the challenges he’s faced in his youth and legally and the struggles to be successful in a tough world. He’s collaborated with the likes of Travis Scott and Lil Wayne and other big players in the current rap scene. The dude is just good. Top Spotify Hit: ZEZE (feat. Travis Scott & Offset) (814 million)
The Game: What a way to kickoff the new year! What’s left of the Nittany Lions (7-5…sigh) face Arkansas (8-4), a team making its first postseason trip since 2016 and its first New Year’s Day bowl since 2011. After beating Texas and Texas A&M (along with Rice and Georgia Southern) to start the year it looked like the Razorbacks were going to cruise to the Southwest Conference title… if this was 1991, that is. For real, though, for a moment it looked like they could be the Cinderella of the SEC West. Well, clock struck midnight, and the Woo Pigs lost their next three games to UGA, Ole Miss, and Auburn by 37, 1, and 15 points. They finished strong, winning 4 of 5, and bring the 20th ranked offense and solid defense to the Outback Bowl against the remnants of Penn State’s top-5 defense.
The Music: …Jason Derulo… is from Miami and Miami isn’t Tampa, but I don’t care, he’s got a song with Tampa in the title. I like Jason Derulo and my favorite thing about him is that you always know you’re about to hear a Jason Derulo song when the song starts. His first real hit “Whatcha Say” sampled Imogen Heap’s “Hide and Seek” which was the song played on The O.C. when Marissa killed Trey – both of which are facts that I shouldn’t know… Jokes aside, he’s got some fun listens on every one of his albums. He just makes hits. Top Spotify Hit: Savage Love (Laxed – Siren Beat) (874 million)
The Game: I am going to root very hard for Will Levis and the Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) to defeat Iowa (10-3?!?) in the Citrus Bowl. I should want the Hawkeyes to win but I can still picture that fan who became Twitter famous after mocking our injured players in October. You know him — the guy who looks like Mac’s Mom from It’s Always Sunny. I imagine he sells used cars somewhere in rural Iowa and constantly talks about the time when his high school team won districts in the 80s even though he never saw the field. So, Go Cats! Run it up.
The Music: Back in Orlando for the 40th time and rather than go with another boy band (sorry Backstreet Boys) we’re going to promote the Disney Princesses. As someone who spends a disproportionate amount of time in the theatre, I find that Disney has some of the best songs. Go watch some of the movies: Beauty and the Beast, The Little Mermaid, The Princess and the Frog, Moana, Frozen, etc. They all have very catchy songs — a fact all Girl Dads know all too well.
The Game: Oklahoma State fans got to be sick knowing they were a failed 4th and goal from the 1 away from making the playoffs. The Cowboys, normally known for offense, bring one of the country’s best defenses (3rd adjusted) to the desert to face a very well-balanced Notre Dame team with top-20 units on both sides of the ball. Our model has ND winning by a fraction of a point. Assuming Oklahoma State doesn’t bring the Big 12 Championship Game hangover with them, this should be a fantastic game.
The Music: Back to Arizona where we find one of the most accomplished singer-songwriters in American history – Stevie Nicks. Her arrival to Fleetwood Mac in 1972 was the catalyst that pushed the band to global success. As a soloist, she found success with “Stop Draggin’ My Heart Around” (with Tom Petty) and “Leather and Lace” (with Don Henley). Starting with Rumours, she helped propel Fleetwood Mac to four #1 albums. Likely their most culturally impactful song is “Landslide” which has been covered by everybody. Top Spotify Hit: Dreams (858 million)
The Game: In Houston we have LSU (6-6) against Kansas State (7-5) in the Texas Bowl. We live in Houston and my family and I were walking through the ball a few days back and saw an ad for the game. I asked my son if he wanted to go, to which he responded: “Why the hell would we want to go to see that?”. Fair enough. LSU is still in rebuilding mode and had a very up and down season but sent Coach O off with a huge win over Texas A&M before hiring Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame. Kansas State remains as they always are – disciplined with a good defense and a sound offense. The Wildcats should win.
The Music: In the rap game, the battle of coasts usually comes down to East and West. But the Third Coast (the Gulf Coast – primarily Houston) has a rich history of strong rappers as well headlined by the likes of Slim Thug, Geto Boys, Mike Jones, Paul Wall, and Travis Scott and regionally, stand up to the East and West crews (go listen to “Welcome 2 Houston” with most of those guys above to get a feeling for H-Town rap). But no matter how good any of those guys are, the list of most impactful artist to come from Houston starts and ends with the Queen Bee – Beyonce. Hitting mainstream success with Destiny’s Child in 1997, Beyonce eventually went solo in 2003. Since then, she’s become (probably) the most influential and biggest selling female artist of the 2000’s. Each of her studio albums reached #1. She’s had six solo singles that topped the charts and countless collaborations that were hits. Top Spotify Hit: Halo (1.1 billion)
The Game: The “Granddaddy of Them All” features another team that had playoff aspirations, Ohio State (10-2). The maybe motivated/maybe not Buckeyes face definitely-motivated Utah (10-3, Pac12 Champs). Our model can’t compute motivation, so Ohio State is a double-digit winner here. Ohio State has the best offense in the country paired with a very good defense. On the other side, the Utes have two huge wins over Oregon, which led them to the conference title. They hold losses to BYU, San Diego State, and Oregon State and rank in the mid-20’s in overall effectiveness on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes should be the pick here.
The Music: I’m not the biggest Van Halen fan but I can certainly respect the influence they had on the American rock scene in the 70’s and 80’s. Formed in 1973 in Pasadena, their first commercial success came in 1978 with their self-titled album Van Halen which included “You Really Got Me”, “Runnin’ with the Devil”, and other hits. Through David Lee Roth, Sammy Hagar, Gary Cherone, and DLR again – Van Halen released 14 studio albums from 1978 to 2012 and amassed 29 mainstream rock Top 20 songs and one #1 with “Jump” in 1983. Top Spotify Hit: Jump (535 million)
The Game: Big-12 Champ Baylor (11-2) squares off against the Lane Kiffin-led Ole Miss Rebels (10-2) in the Sugar Bowl. The Rebs have 4th best yards-per-drive stats in FBS and a top-15 points-per-drive number. They match that with a solid defense that’s allowing 25.7 PPG (52nd nationally). Baylor allows the 17th fewest points-per-game (20.2) and ranks 17th in defensive efficiency. Baylor hasn’t won a current NY6 bowl since the 1979 Peach Bowl.
The Music: One of Billboard’s Ten Best Rappers of all-time hails from New Orleans. That’s Lil Wayne. He has been on the scene since he was 17 years old when The Hot Boys released “Bling Bling” which was a campus hit in 1999. All totaled, he has released 14 studio albums and all but 1 has been #1 or #2 on the US Hip-Hop charts and all but two have been top-10 Billboard 200 top-10’s. Having worked with Jay-Z, Eminem, Nicki Minaj, and virtually everyone else in 21st century Hip Hop, Wayne is one of the most influential artists on this entire list no matter genre or era. Top Spotify Hit: Mirror (324 million)
The Game: In Houston we have LSU (6-6) against Kansas State (7-5) in the Texas Bowl. We live in Houston and my family and I were walking through the mall a few days back and saw an ad for the game. I asked my son if he wanted to go, to which he responded: “Why the hell would we want to go to see that?” Fair enough. LSU is still in rebuilding mode and had a very up and down season but sent Coach O off with a huge win over Texas A&M before hiring Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame. Kansas State remains as they always are – disciplined with a good defense and a sound offense. The Wildcats should win.
The Music: In the rap game, the battle of coasts usually comes down to East and West. But the Third Coast (the Gulf Coast – primarily Houston) has a rich history of strong rappers as well headlined by the likes of Slim Thug, Geto Boys, Mike Jones, Paul Wall, and Travis Scott and regionally, stand up to the East and West crews (go listen to “Welcome 2 Houston” with most of those guys above to get a feeling for H-Town rap). But no matter how good any of those guys are, the list of most impactful artist to come from Houston starts and ends with the Queen Bee – Beyonce. Hitting mainstream success with Destiny’s Child in 1997, Beyonce eventually went solo in 2003. Since then, she’s become (probably) the most influential and biggest selling female artist of the 2000’s. Each of her studio albums reached #1. She’s had six solo singles that topped the charts and countless collaborations that were hits. Top Spotify Hit: Halo (1.1 billion)
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