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For The Blogy - A New Look at the Penn State Nittany Lions
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PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Predicting 2023 Game-by-Game Results

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Introduction

One week. Seven days. 168 hours. 10,080 minutes. 604,800 seco…check that 604,799… no, 604,798 seconds.

But who’s counting, right?

The long summer is basically behind us as the promising, high-anticipated, I’m-ready-to-be-hurt-again 2023 Penn State football season looms on the horizon! This has to be the most-hyped campaign in recent memory as it’s not just blue-and-white homers like me and you trumpeting the Nittany Lions’ CFP chances. Frankly, it almost TOO many people of relevance are hyping them up…although I suppose it beats the alternative.

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August 25, 2023by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – National Championship DNA

There’s no single formula to win a college football national championship, but after we crunched the numbers, we found several statistical similarities among those teams that finished the year on top.

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Introduction

I believe it was around this time last season (or maybe was it the year before? IDK…dates and times all sort of congeal together these days) when I wrote something about the infectious four-letter word that permeates college football fanbases during these final few weeks leading to kickoff: HOPE.

Ah, hope. Doesn’t matter if the confluence of events necessary for your school to reach college football’s four-team, made-for-TV Valhalla is semi-realistic, ridiculous, or reason for you to be institutionalized…hope provides license for outlandish prognostications. Penn State fans are obviously no strangers to hope. Heck, coming off a sub-.500 COVID campaign and the promising-to-painful progression of the Nittany Lions’ 2021 season, hope is really all we had to cling prior to last year.

Fast-forward 12 months, obviously a lot has changed. For Penn State HOPE has given way to HYPE, which got us thinking…

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August 7, 2023by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Basketball? – NCAA Tournament Round of 64

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Introduction

Like many of you, I have been a huge Penn State basketball fan for my entire life the entire month of March.

A deep, somewhat unexpected run in the Big Ten Tournament that saw wins over Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana (and an almost-win vs. Purdue in the title gam), propelled the Nittany Lions to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011. In fact, this is only the third time this century that Penn State received an invitation to college basketball’s Big Dance.

This 2022-23 transfer-heavy version of Penn State hoops plays a very fun brand of ball – from its  deep 3’s and air traffic controller-like stress, no matter if Micah Shrewsberry’s crew is winning or losing. It’s been a heckuva magic carpet ride thus far…and it’s not over.

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March 14, 2023by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – The 2022 Defense Year-In-Review

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Introduction

Throughout all the ebbs and flows of James Franklin’s eventful tenure at Penn State, the one constant year after year has been the Nittany Lions steady and strong defense (2020 notwithstanding, cough). No different in 2022. Despite all the off-season upheaval (losing 5 defenders in the NFL Draft, losing folksy-sounding DC Brent Pry to Virginia Tech, and bringing in a complete outsider in Manny Diaz) this year’s Penn State defense did more than maintain the status quo. They set a new standard of excellence.

Dominant but in a different way, Diaz’s defense leaned on arguably the best secondary in program history so that the front seven could unleash absolute chaos at the line of scrimmage.  The result? A savage Saturday symphony of sacks, strips, and swats. Man, it was beautiful, wasn’t it? But don’t just take my word for it…the basic and advanced defensive stats from this season back all of that up. Let’s dive in.

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January 22, 2023by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – The 2022 Offense Year-in-Review

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Introduction

Operating a bit in the shadows, away from the main stage, away from the spotlight that felt more like an interrogation lamp in 2021, with all the burdensome hype and fanfare now piled on Coordinateur du Jour, Manny Diaz, Penn State offensive playcaller Mike Yurcich cobbled together a stealthy bounceback campaign in 2022. Dare we say it…Mike Yurcich’s offense actually looked like a Mike Yurcich offense! More points, more plays, more explosivity, more formational diversity, more of the stuff that was promised when we – among another media outlets – sunshine-pumped Yurcich’s surprise hire 24 months ago.

The 2022 Penn State offense saw tremendous improvement in virtually EVERY basic and advanced stat versus the flat-tire, low-bar-setting 2021 group. Led by a veteran quarterback that stuck around to clean up his own mess, a much-improved offensive line, and an injection of young but mature skill position players, the 2022 offense was something to remember. So, like we do every year, let’s put a number-laden bow on the 2022 Penn State offense by examining some of the statistics that delineate the massive Year 1 to Year 2 jump – a vast improvement that fueled the Nittany Lions’ 11-win return to form.

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January 10, 2023by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Rose Bowl Preview

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Introduction

Prior to the start of the 2022 season, how many of us placed Penn State in Pasadena at the end of the year? All you lairs can put your hands down. Pegged as a rebuilding year at best, the Nittany Lions’ exceeded those meager expectations as their lone losses came at the hands of two teams (Michigan and Ohio State) still in contention to play for all the Tostitos on Jan. 9. The rest of the slate…well, the Nittany Lions managed to breeze through it sans some necessary last-minute Clifford magic at Purdue.  Though the official CFP rankings don’t concur, in our opinion, Penn State is pretty clearly one of the top-10 teams in the country, worthy of a Southern California showcase stage known as the “Granddaddy of them All” (RIP Keith Jackson) that could serve as the perfect springboard for a CFP run in 2023. So, today, we’ll wipe the dust off our Relative Performance Index (RPI) predictor and forecast how the Nittany Lions will stack up in several statistical categories against Utah in the Rose Bowl.

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December 21, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Week 12, Michigan State

Sponsor: For The Blogy’s 2022 season coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Looking for the perfect holiday gift for the Nit in your life? Check out our FANATICS on FTB STORE HERE. Use our Cyber Monday checkout code ‘BOLT’ for 30% off your order, or use the checkout code ‘FTB’ for 0% off your order.

Introduction

We’ve reached the conclusion of Penn State’s 12-game 2022 regular season slate, marking the end of an era in Happy Valley. (I told myself I wasn’t gonna cry. Hold it together, Nate). Barney Amor will never kick another punt in Beaver Stadium. As almost-canceled author Dr. Seuss once said, “Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened.” The unofficial mascot of this weekly blog post ended his storied career with another signature performance, booming balls for a 50 yards-per-punt average – just how a legend should go out. #RE96ECT.

via GIPHY

According to my notes, another era ended on Saturday, too – The Sean Clifford Era. More polarizing than the epic “yanny” vs. “laurel” debate of 2018 (when Sean was actually a sophomore academically), the 6th-year senior and 4th-year starter graced the Beaver Stadium stage for the final time on Saturday. He, and the 2022 team, went out with a 19-point win over “rival”(?) Michigan State, closing the season on a 4-game win streak during which the average margin of victory was 31 points. All things considered, it’s a good way to go out for Clifford but instead of focusing our attention solely on No. 14, today we’ll talk about this game and this season from a 30,000-foot perspective and put it in context of Penn State’s entire football history.

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November 27, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 11, Rutgers

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Introduction

Another week, another dominating Penn State win. Huh, so this is what being an Ohio State fan must feel like. How boring. Like always, Penn State traveled east and big-brothered Rutgers like the Nittany Lions always do, marking the third straight Saturday Penn State picked up a W against the division’s traditional also-rans. Much like the Indiana and Maryland wallopings, Penn State leaned on it’s two-headed freshmen backfield attack along with another merciless defensive performance to end the competitive phase of this contest by the middle of the 3rd Quarter.

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November 20, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 10, Maryland

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Introduction

Death. Taxes. Beating Maryland.

I won’t pretend to know what it’s like being a Maryland fan. Heck, I’m not even sure there are Maryland fans. But if there are any turtle backers out there, I assume they gotta feel like Bill Murray’s character from Groundhog Day – early season competency that fades like a snowflake on your tongue by late October, Rinse, Repeat. There’s not much that’s certain in life, but as confidently as anything I can say that, as currently staffed, Maryland cannot be a good football team…ever…and their belief that maybe, maybe, “this year” will be different always makes for one hilarious Saturday in the fall.

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November 13, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 9, Indiana

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Introduction

In previous years, coming off a loss, a sleepy and windy Saturday in Bloomington, Indiana would’ve been a recipe for a Penn State letdown. This year though, the Nittany Lions’ talented youngsters (along with one notable 24-year-old) guided Penn State to a thorough bounce-back against an overmatched Hoosiers squad that lost their quarterback before halftime and lost their 2020 mojo, oh….(checks calendar)…22 months ago. Still, no matter the opponent, Saturday’s 45-14 win was a great sign for a team that emotionally folded the tents in November last year.

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November 6, 2022by FTB Nathan
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