Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 10, Maryland

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Introduction

Death. Taxes. Beating Maryland.

I won’t pretend to know what it’s like being a Maryland fan. Heck, I’m not even sure there are Maryland fans. But if there are any turtle backers out there, I assume they gotta feel like Bill Murray’s character from Groundhog Day – early season competency that fades like a snowflake on your tongue by late October, Rinse, Repeat. There’s not much that’s certain in life, but as confidently as anything I can say that, as currently staffed, Maryland cannot be a good football team…ever…and their belief that maybe, maybe, “this year” will be different always makes for one hilarious Saturday in the fall.

Quick Hitters

1. With his second pass completion yesterday – a 16-yard strike to tight end Brenton Strange — Sean Clifford passed Trace McSorley as Penn State’s all-time leader in passing yards. As it stands, Clifford now has 9,990 total yards through the air. Say what you want about our AARP member under center, but he’s persevered far more than nearly anyone else would’ve been willing for this program and team, and for that he must be applauded. With that said, with sad-sack Rutgers and MSU on the horizon, let Clifford get 10 more yards, give him his gold watch, then let Drew take over (please).
2. The freshman running backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, continue to impress beyond anyone’s preseason expectations. Yesterday, in the slop, Singleton stole the spotlight with 122 yards on 11 carries (insert several fire emojis here) and two TDs. Fatman chipped in with 73 yards for himself, upping his season total to 631.
3. The Jake Pinegar Redemption Tour Rolls On! The senior (is he coming back next year? He’s got that COVID mulligan if he wants it) was flawless in unforgiving conditions, connecting on 6 of 6 total kicks, including a 50-yard bomb that would have been good from 53-55 – according to my imprecise measurements taken on my TV set 1,500 miles away from Happy Valley.
4. The defense… my goodness, the defense… more on them later.

Basic Statistics

Good news and Bad News.

Bad News: there are only 2 more weeks left in the regular season. Good News: In less than 52 weeks, Penn State gets to stomp Maryland, again. Hang in there friend because as long as the Lions and turtles are in the same division, joy will always be on the horizon. On Saturday, that joy came in the form of a 30-0 shutout in which the Penn State defense dominated Maryland like they were Bishop Sycamore or that weird, hoser Canadian school IMG played for a half a few weeks ago. The Penn Sate offense started hot and scored 27 points in the first half (the score matching Maryland’s total yardage production, 27-27) and all was right on a cold Saturday in Beaver Stadium.

The following is leftover from my Indiana column last week; seems apropos to leave it in this week as well: The Penn State defense, allowing fewer than 200 yards in total offense and only 65 rushing yards, put forth a tremendous effort and portends that unit to be a strength going into 2023. The defense played fast and swarmed the ball in a way that is reminiscent of an SEC team. With the last two dominating performances, the Penn State defense now ranks 16^th in the country in yards-per-play allowed, 29^th in yards/rush allowed, 10^th in yards/pass allowed, and 13^th in points/game allowed. The defense is turning it up as the year goes on.

The offense, in the first half at least, was similarly dominant an ended up with 249 rushing yards, which puts this as a top-20 rushing performance for the Nittany Lions under James Franklin. Those gaudy ground numbers were bolstered by a couple of explosive Singleton runs out of the T-formation. The pass game struggled. Penn State only registered 5.5 yards/attempt, which can be partially excused thanks to the weather, but that’s still not good. Overall though, on the year, the Nittany Lions offense has been competent and balanced. They currently rank 35^th nationally at 6.1 yards/play (compared to 2021 when they were 100^th in FBS at 5.1).

Advanced Stats

So, referring back to the overall rankings outlined in the previous segment, Penn State’s national standing has been bolstered by the defense’s ability to generate negative plays (sacks and TFL) and the offense’s penchant for not givng up those plays in 2022. In 2021, the offense allowed 7 TFL and 2.6 sacks per game, good for a total of 43 yards in lost yardage per contest. The 2021 defense generated 6.3 TFL and 2 sacks per game and caused opposing offenses to lose 39.7 yards/contest. It’s not much, but this net of -3 yards per game certainly contributed to Penn State’s disappointing 7-6 bottom line last year. In fact, that -3 net was represented Penn State’s third lowest performance since 2009. This year, the team is generating a +28 yards per game in negative-play differential. That +28 net ranks in the Top 50 out of all FBS teams since 2009 (so Top 50 out of 1,771 total teams in that timespan). That, my friends, is quite a turnaround. Let’s examine this a bit deeper.

The average FBS offense since 2009 allows 8.1 negative plays per game and Penn State, since 2013, has been around or worse than average. In 2022, though, the Nittany Lions are only allowing 5.2 sack+TFL/game (3.9 TFL + 1.3 sacks) which is nearly as good as they’ve ever been since 2009. There are myriad reasons for this but most notably is the offensive line play which, anchored by Olu Fashanu and Juice Scruggs, is drastically improved over last year. Additionally, Clifford’s decision-making has matured in his 6^th year in the program. A throwaway may not be the best play, but it’s also never going to be the worst play. These, plus what we covered last week on the freshman RBs taking fewer negative runs, adds up to success for the offense.

Converting these 5.2 negative plays into negative yards, we see that PSU is only surrendering 21.5 yards lost per game. Compared to 2020 and 2021, PSU’s 2022 offense is saving over 20 yards per game this season. The Lions currently rank 32^nd in the nation averaging 434 yards/game. Those aforementioned20 yards saved make up nearly 5% of that production and are the difference between a 32^nd ranking and 45^th or so. That’s not an insignificant difference, folks.

Defensively, the Lions have been strong seemingly forever, and only have one below average season in Sack+TFL/game (2010). Since their peak in 2018, though, they’ve been on a bit of a slide back to average. But in 2022, as is the signature of a Manny Diaz defense (and aided A LOT by the last two games) they’re up to 10.2 Sack+TFL.

Penn State’s negative yardage forced on defense has bounced too, up to 49.2 yards in 2022 versus 39.7 in 2021. While this isn’t the best Penn State defense since 2009, it’s still a top quintile team in terms of negative yards forced (218^th out of 1,771 FBS teams).

When you take the differential of negative yards forced on defense vs. negative yards lost on offense, you get the +28 net yards that I mentioned in the intro of the section. This is Penn State’s best showing in this stat since at least 2009.