Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 9, Indiana
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Introduction
In previous years, coming off a loss, a sleepy and windy Saturday in Bloomington, Indiana would’ve been a recipe for a Penn State letdown. This year though, the Nittany Lions’ talented youngsters (along with one notable 24-year-old) guided Penn State to a thorough bounce-back against an overmatched Hoosiers squad that lost their quarterback before halftime and lost their 2020 mojo, oh….(checks calendar)…22 months ago. Still, no matter the opponent, Saturday’s 45-14 win was a great sign for a team that emotionally folded the tents in November last year.
Quick Hitters
- Round of applause for the Penn State defense, everybody. 16 TFL and 6 sacks against Indiana. Before Saturday, Diaz and Co. averaged 6 TFL and 2 sacks per game. This was an absolutely dominating performance for an aggressive, swarming defense. Add in 3 INTs and 3 PBUs on 63 defensive snaps and the Penn State defense generated HAVOC on an obscene 44% of plays.
- Sean Clifford’s 229 passing yards on Saturday now puts the super 6th year senior at 9,884 for his career, only 15 yards shy of Trace McSorley’s Penn State career record and 116 yards away from 10,000 overall. For our readers who recently escaped abduction or awoke from a coma, there has been some major clamoring lately to hand the reins over to Drew Allar. Count me as one of those clamorers…I think Allar deserves more reps sooner in games. But given how close Clifford is to these milestones, and considering he’s kept his composure and stayed a leader and true to Penn State throughout it all, I could see him playing until both career-yardage marks are in hand. Heck, it should only take one more game. SHOULD.
- Jake Pinegar set a personal best with a wind-aided 50-yard Field Goal late in the 2nd Hey, good for him.
Basic Statistics
Penn State gained one more yard against Indiana than it did against Ohio State but won by 31 rather than losing by 13. The biggest difference between this week and last was the turnover battle as Penn State rebounded from its generous -4 vs. Ohio State to finish +2 vs. the Hoosiers. Other than Transfer Portal resident Jack Tuttle (so bizarre) ripping off a few scrambles, Indiana’s offense was basically a Schwinn without a bike chain, two flat tires, and a tree branch stuck in the spokes.
The Penn State defense allowing fewer than 200 yards in total offense and only 65 rushing yards is a tremendous effort…obviously. Couple that with the fact that so many of Saturday’s playmakers were first-year and second-year defenders, there’s no reason why this unit shouldn’t take another large leap forward in 2023.
Offensively, I was surprised that the rushing attack didn’t amass more than 4 yards per carry despite racking up 179 total yards on the ground. From the climate-controlled comfort of my recliner, it seemed like Penn State was productive in the run game. Guess not to the degree I anticipated. Oh well. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton — 86 and 73 yards, respectively – continued to add to the pending off-season argument over which 2023 team will have the best RB duo in the country. Allen added an additional 72 receiving yards, including a 45-yard reception on a swing pass. Toss in a couple of fantastic throws by Drew Allar, a handful of circus catches from the young WRs and tight ends, and a solid game from a patchwork offensive line down three starters, well, and you have the making of a lethal offense next year to go along with an unforgiving defense.
This game, along with the Minnesota Whiteout, was a 60-minute masterpiece in complementary football. This is the kind of team that can go to the playoffs in 2023 (famous last words, no jinx.)
Advanced Stats
Today, let’s shine a spotlight on Penn State’s star freshmen RBs. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen – both Top 200 recruits from the class of 2022 – have burst on the scene and blown past upperclassmen on the depth chart, reminiscent of another Nittany Lions superstar freshman RB from 2015. So, why not compare all 3 runners – Singleton, Allen, and Saquon Barkley — across a multitude of statistical categories through the initial 9 games of their college careers? Should be fun.
As you can see in the table below, there’s no a whole heckuva lot separating each ballcarriers’ early college days. Through this part of his career, Saquon was averaging 6.5 YPC on 109 carries for 722 total rushing yards. Remember though, Barkley’s journey to nine games played was delayed because of an injury that kept him out of the Army and Indiana contests iin 2015. The 2022 freshmen have about the same number of carries and have actually crossed the goal line more than Saquon had at this point of his career. While Singleton and Allen haven’t been as consistent as Saquon, both runners have posted solid yards/carry with 6.1 for Singleton and 5.2 for Allen.
If we dissect Singleton, Allen, and Barkley on a game-by-game basis, we start to see where each back had their first breakout performances. Below is a game-by-game chart of yards/carry (darker blue is higher) and total yards (bigger boxes mean more yards) with the associated labels. For both Saquon and Singleton, Game 2 was their ‘Welcome to College Football’ moment. In a downpour vs. Buffalo, Saquon leapt over a dude en route to 115 yards and 9.6 yards/carry. The next week, at night vs. Rutgers, Saquon topped that with 195 yards. Singleton broke out for 179 yards on 10 carries against Ohio and followed up with another 124 yards on 10 carries against Auburn. Kaytron Allen didn’t have his breakout game until Central Michigan when he generated 111 yards. Singleton and Allen (and the whole Penn State offense) struggled mightily in game 6, Michigan, but have played well since. Combined, the two 2022 freshmen have generated at least 120 rushing yards combined in every game except for Purdue and Michigan.
Now, it’s histogram time. Each block in the table below represents 6.4 yards – the first block representing negative 6.4 yards to 0. As expected, the highest percentage of rushes for all 3 backs gained anywhere between 0 and 6.4 yards. Through 9 games, Saquon had a negative rush rate of 9%, foreshadowing a recurring boom-or-bust theme that continues to linger even now that he’s a 5th year pro. Nick Singleton – another boom-or-bust back – has a 7.1% negative rush rate through nine games. He also has 6 rushes of over 20 yards including 3 over 45, which is the highest proportion of big runs for any of the three RBs through this point in their careers.
Kaytron Allen, on the other hand, only has 2 rushes of over 25 yards but has had 15% of his runs go for 6.4-to-12.8 yards and 8% in the 12.8-to-19.4 yard bin. Fatman’s negative rush rate of 2.8% is stellar, as well. Allen may not pop the 50+ yard rushes like Singleton, but he’s not going to put the offense behind the sticks, either. The lack of redundancy in Singleton and Allen’s might make them the most effective 1-2 punch in Penn State football history before all is said and done.
Before the Saquon Stans come calling (and I am one by the way) I fully understand that the offensive line is better now than it was in 2015. And I know the scheme now is more advanced than it was in 2015. Hell, the four-play original Tecmo Bowl play-picking screen was more advanced than John Donovan’s offense. Still, with all that stated and considered, I believe this is a useful comparison.
The emergence of the young running backs has been a tremendous bright spot for Penn State in 2022 and will undoubtedly help fuel the 2023 and 2024 hype machines as the Lions seek to capture another Big Ten title and crack the CFP glass ceiling.
Nice write up.