Sunday Column: The Ultimate Gamble – Should Penn State Hit on 15 or Stand on 14?

It’s March 27 and Penn State is just about a full week into spring practice.

Too early to write about the quarterbacks?

Naaaaahhhhh.

We’ll start this piece with a caveat: It is very likely, given how tough it is for a true freshman quarterback to get up to Division I speed, James Franklin’s lengthy history of favoring the incumbent, and Sean Clifford’s enormity of experience as the incumbent, that Clifford will start every game and play the vast majority of the reps this season should he, the good Lord willing and Spring Creek don’t rise, stay healthy.

That said, let’s talk through a few scenarios that are less likely but – as are most things in college football – quite possible, and explore the pros and cons of Penn State rolling with a known or an unknown at the game’s most important position this fall.

The Case for Clifford

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Drew Allar blows the doors off the coaches and his teammates this spring, and then continues that momentum with an equally impressive preseason. He picks up the offense quickly, he establishes a rapport with his teammates, he shows poise and quick decision-making under pressure, and his arm is as accurate as it is powerful. Meanwhile, Clifford doesn’t necessarily do anything to lose the job, but becomes clear that he is not the most talented player in the QB room, and that the Nittany Lions’ ceiling is higher with the rookie.

Penn State should stick with 14 anyway.

Oh yes, there would be wailing and gnashing of teeth with every Clifford pick, facepalms every time he didn’t set his feet before airmailing an open receiver, and countless screen grabs of receivers who had empty space on the side of the field that he never looked to.

But a season with Clifford running the show might be the best thing for Allar, and for the program.

Clifford is a known commodity but also a trusted one. He’s shown the ability to make basically every throw and has proven he can make the right reads. He has a better set of wheels than your average pocket passer type, and he’s a tough kid who has never shied away from the big moments or big games, even if he hasn’t always consistently delivered in those moments. Plus, he’ll finally get a second season with the same offensive coordinator.

Allar can learn from all of this, not just from watching Clifford on the field but from talking to him between each series about what he is seeing from the defense and how he’s trying to attack it. He can see how Clifford prepares for games during practices and in the film room. Maybe he’ll get a series with the first team here or there, but again, based on Franklin’s track record, probably not unless the game is well in hand. But that’s OK – by the end of the season, all of that watching and learning will make him that much more ready to take the keys to the offense in 2023, when he’ll be bigger, stronger, able to process the game more rapidly, and likely have retained his full eligibility.

Pushing back Allar’s ascent to the starting role will give the rest of Penn State’s offense, including fellow freshman Nick Singleton and some promising linemen, more time to catch up, so that when the quarterback is in his prime, he will have all the tools around him. The Nittany Lions could have a very good season this fall, but it’s unlikely to be a championship kind of season with Clifford or Allar or even Bryce Young as the starter. They might as well save their stud arm. Franklin has the job security, and based solely on the recruiting rankings, the future is at least as bright as the present and likely brighter.

The Case for Drew Allar

Clifford is a known commodity … and for a healthy portion of the fan base, that’s the problem. We know what he is but also what he isn’t, and after three seasons of potential mixed with frustration, many observers are simply ready to turn the page, even if that means to a quarterback who could and likely will have consistency issues of his own.

Clifford is a luxury few college coaches have – he’s a 23-year-old (who’ll be 24 this July) with 33 career starts under his belt. He won’t need much work this spring, and the coaches can give his reps to Allar, Christian Vellieux, and Beau Pribula and know that Clifford will be ready to go come August. Regardless of how much Allar impresses, Clifford should start the season as the starter.

But, if he struggles, there are some compelling reasons to introduce the freshman, either on a part-time or full-time basis. The first is the golden rule of sport – you play your best players. Period. If the staff determines that Allar is the best quarterback, he needs to play, regardless of how much loyalty Clifford has earned over the years. That would send an important message up and down the roster and help to ensure there is true competition at each position.

If the kid is the real deal, there’s little reason to save his redshirt – more reason, in fact, to burn it. The journey to the NFL is shorter and shorter these days, even for quarterbacks, and Penn State needs to get every game they can out of (the hypothetical-though-legitimately-possible unstoppable version of) Allar. The game experience he gets this year, whether his team wins six games or 11, will send him into 2023 with not only experience but an established leadership role, and make him a prime recruiting chip as Penn State pursues elite offensive skill players.

If Allar develops quickly enough to win the job, he would also provide some buzz, some excitement, for a Penn State program that has been in sore need of it for the last couple of years. Again, this season doesn’t appear to be a big one for the Nittany Lions, but it’s easier to envision a Penn State team with sophomore Drew Allar making his 10^th or 11^th start securing a national 2023 TV appearance against, say, Indiana than redshirt freshman Drew Allar making start No. 4 in the same game.

There’s also a chance that, once he wins this job, Allar falters, too, or is sidelined with an injury. In that case, Penn State would be able to bring a 24-year-old, three-year starter off the bench, a role that Clifford might have to swallow with a grimace, but he’s proven to be enough of a competitor and standup teammate that it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t accept it.

As I said at the top, it’s also hard to imagine that, come September, QB1 won’t be Clifford. And as I also said, most things are possible in college football, meaning by season’s end we might be replacing Allar’s name with Veilleux’s or Pribula’s in the above paragraphs. But although the start of the season is a long way away, Franklin just might wind up with a hard choice to make at quarterback, and that choice could not only hold major influence over Penn State’s fate this fall, but in several falls to come. The harder that choice is to make, the better off the program could be.