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Introduction

In the spring we looked at offensive explosivity from a new lens as the rate a team score touchdowns from outside of the red zone. We referred to that new metric as TORZ. Today, we flip the script and look at a defense’s ability to prevent opposing offenses for scoring beyond the red zone.

Defensive explosivity allowed is something that is not often discussed as a common statistic and metric. But, just as some offenses are more explosive than others, as we outlined in our TORZ post a few months ago, and that this offensive explosivity is reproducible for the best team (see: Ohio State), we would expect that a defense’s ability to PREVENT or LIMIT explosivity is also a repeatable skill. Teams, like Iowa for example under defensive coordinator Phil Parker, have garner big-play-prevention reputations over the years. Which leads us to the $64,000 question: Just because a defense can stop big scoring plays from happening, does that mean they’re actually a good defense?

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Don’t call last year a disappointment. The Nittany Lions didn’t lose a game by more than four points – if you overlook the scoop-and-score from the OSU game and consider the Opt-out Bowl an outlier. Twelve student-athletes graduated to NFL rosters, eight by way of the draft. Most importantly: 15 current and former Penn State players received diplomas this past May.

Is it possible to lose half your defense to the NFL one year and have a better team the season after? Ok, that’s a loaded question; I’ll scrape off some of the sour cream and bacon bits. I’ve graded and ranked each position group of Penn State’s 2022 roster. After doing so, one thing is clear: James Franklin’s team will have a very different identity come the first of September.

Scale: F – Unacceptable, D – Below-the-line, C – Average, B – Good, A – Great

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For the Nittany Lions, The Road Too Often Traveled To Start Conference Play Has Been On The Road — a Discrepancy Penn State’s New AD  Won’t Let Be Dismissed as a Coincidence Anymore

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This year’s Big Ten Media Days offered Penn State football’s top brass an opportunity to vent.

During James Franklin’s turn at the podium, the Nittany Lions’ head coach took a subtle shot at the frequency with which his team has been scheduled to open conference play on the road (seven straight years counting 2022, and 12 of the last 13). Later on, when a reporter questioned Dr. Pat Kraft about the topic, State’s new athletic director assumed a more direct approach. With a brand of candor uncommon to his profession or employer, Kraft made his view plain: “It stinks.” He went on to describe an appeal to the league office seeking relief.

But how big of a beef do James and his new boss really have?

Penn State fans absolutely love to complain about discriminatory treatment from the Big Ten. Any number of Blue and White backers will insist that what could simply be innocent quirks of a complicated scheduling process, in fact, characterize a pattern of mistreatment that predates the retirement of Bo Schembechler. To these impassioned partisans, their beloved program endures a special and exclusive aggrieved status.

Turns out, at least in this case, they’re right!

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Sponsor: For The Blogy’s 2022 preseason coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Spare the embarrassment of showing up to Beaver Stadium in LAST year’s sweat- & alcohol-stained gear. Grab something fresh from our collection of Penn State jerseys, T-shirts, and more right HERE.

Introduction

With the dead skin from our July 4^th sunburns fully peeled, and as we sit a few short weeks away from preseason camp beginning, now is the time where optimism runs wild. Watch out for (insert team). Call me crazy, but (insert team) is poised to make a run. And, of course, if things break right (insert team) is going to win the Natty.

Ah, that sweet symphony of hope.

Now, leave it to us – and our proprietary rating system – to either pump more sunshine into your veins or rain on your parade as we lay out a preseason Top 25 and Big Ten power rankings. This forward-looking view of the season will show which teams have the best chance to win it all and which may see dramatic falls. Now, attempting to rank teams going into the season based off previous performances is a fool’s errand, and if there’s a fool running around the college football analytics world it’s this guy (thumbs pointed inward). So enjoy!

Before diving in, a quick note: All of the “rating” numbers below represent an actual expected points scored or allowed (offense or defense) a team would generate against an average opponent (after adjusting for conference strength). The overall rating is the offensive expectation minus the defensive expectation.

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