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Introduction

Finally, the season is upon us! Bring on the first college football Saturday Thursday!

Much like last year, the Big Ten schedule makers left Penn State no room for non-conference creampuff foreplay as the Nittany Lions are forced to go in raw against another winning Big Ten West foe to get things started. And much like last year, one of the largest preseason questions marks looming over Penn State’s 2022 fortunes is the potential potency of the offense.

Rightly or wrongly, for better or worse, most of the uncertainty falls on the shoulders of QB1 Sean Clifford.

Clifford’s QB counterpart in the season opener is Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell – an unheralded walk-on and one time 8^th string QB on the Boilermakers depth chart (seriously, that isn’t a joke. He was.) who somehow morphed into an All-Big Ten thrower. Statistically speaking, O’Connell ranked 2^nd or 3^rd in most major passing categories last year, only trailing behind Ohio State QB/G Wagon driver CJ Stroud, a Heisman finalist.

Now that we’ve set both QBs up, let’s compared the two, shall we?

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This is the part where I’m supposed to tell you to be patient with Penn State’s dynamic young running backs, that true freshmen need to cook slowly, more like a brisket than a burger, and that James Franklin, not unlike many coaches, has shown a consistent tendency to be more comfortable with veterans than upstart rookies.

In other words, tell you to get excited about Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but not too excited.

Well, considering the way Penn State’s running game looked last season, you should take any reasons to be excited you can get.

We all know the numbers were bad (118^th of 130 FBS teams in rushing yards per game), the optics were bad (how many times did the Nittany Lions turn a 2^nd-and-feet into a punt or turnover on downs?) and the harmony was bad (when the line blocked, the backs didn’t hit the holes hard; when they ran with purpose, the blocking broke down). But when you go back and look at what frequently cost the Nittany Lions in their six losses last season, it was the effect the running game—or lack of running game—had on the rest of the team that made for so many disappointing Saturday evenings.

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Once a Promising Young Runner Brimming with Upside, the Nittany Lions Presumed Starter to Start the Year Has to Sharpen Several Aspects of his Game to STAY the Starter at the End of the Year

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Seems like several lifetimes ago by now, but remember that Keyvone Lee earned PFF grades of 75+ in both rushing and receiving in 2020. Purdue’s Zander Horvath is the only other B1G RB who can make that same boast; he’s playing for the Chargers now.

Both players averaged 4.9 yards/carry that year.

In 2021, Lee averaged…4.9 yards/carry. Not a step back, but not the step forward expected after what he did in his first season in blue and white.

Suddenly there are a couple of talented freshmen (Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen) ready to do to Lee what he did to Noah Cain. The good news – for Keyvone – is he 100% has the tools to headline a RB room and ward off four- and five-star teammates from snatching away carries.

Let’s break down what he has to do to avoid transferring and fading from our collective memory while exhausting his eligibility at some forgettable C-USA or Sun Belt football “farm upstate.”

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The casual Nittany Lion fan will be forgiven if he has to reach for the team roster more often than usual this September to match jersey numbers with names along Penn State’s defensive line.

If the Nittany Lions are lucky, at least a couple of those numbers will become quite familiar to opposing coaches who have to scout the Penn State defense.

Just about every position group is breaking in one or two new faces this fall, as is commonplace in this transfer-happy era of college football, but defensive line coach John Scott’s collection of ends and tackles takes the turnover to another level.

Gone are Arnold Ebiketie, Derrick Tangelo and sometimes-linebacker Jesse Luketa. Back from injury are Adisa Isaac and P.J. Mustipher. Back from some other form of exile is Hakeem Beamon. In from the Maryland Terrapins is Chop Robinson, and in from the high school ranks are Dani Dennis Sutton, Zane Durant and Kaleb Artis (alas, Ken Talley, we knew thee not that well). And then there are returnees like Nick Tarburton, Smith Vilbert, Coziah Izzard and Dvon Ellies.

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Introduction

From Tuscaloosa to Los Angeles to Pittsburgh and all points in between, now is the time when every college football fanbase throws probability out the window, plugs their collective ears from listening to the voices of reason, and mentally crafts a path to the College Football Playoff…no matter how absurd or unlikely the route. Of course, the same applies in State College. The ho-hum mood that hung over Nittany Lions loyalists for the summer months has given way to unbridled optimism following the cliché grab-bag of media day and the release of that one clip where Kaytron Allen snatches Mehki Flowers’ soul (poor guy). For now, it’s OK to close your eyes and dream of spending early January fighting the traffic hellscape that is Inglewood, California at 4 pm on a Monday. Ahh, glorious isn’t it?

(Snaps Fingers)

Unfortunately, today’s ABC entry isn’t tailored for those with their head in the clouds. No, it’s rooted in reality and a bunch of math. Like we did around this time last year, we used our proprietary algorithm to calculate the win probability and a consensus final score of Penn State’s 12 regular season contests in 2022.

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Media Days have come and gone. The NFL preseason is underway. Real, honest-to-goodness football is oh so close, and so is a big year for James Franklin and Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have one of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football history, some explosive young athletes in the backfield, a reshuffled offensive line that will probably be the subject of only four or five of these columns this fall, an intriguing collection of both returning and new talent along the defensive line, and what could be one of the best secondaries they’ve ever had.

They should also have a collective chip on their shoulders the size of Landon Tengwall after consecutive seasons of five or more losses. How and why Penn State came up so curiously and consistently short has already been written to death. Today, we will examine how Franklin and his team can end that surprising and sobering stretch of mediocrity.

With apologies to the famed 21^st century philosopher William Martin Joel, it’s a matter of trust.

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Same deal as yesterday’s offense article. For those diligent FTB readers, no need to explain the format or premise of this blog post. You know the drill. Gold star for you. For those who didn’t bother reading Monday’s ‘End-of-Season Starting Lineup: Offense’ well, I hope you have a doctor’s note or some other valid excuse for your absence.

DE: Adisa Isaac

Isaac was anointed a future first-round pick by a former Nittany Lion before last year’s medical redshirt depreciated his NFL stock a bit. Five-star freshman Dani Dennis-Sutton is nipping at his heels and by the end of this sentence you won’t be able to say I didn’t mention Smith Vilbert’s name. Adisa’s a man on a mission, though; he’ll come by this spot honestly.

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Sponsor: For The Blogy’s 2022 preseason coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Spare the embarrassment of showing up to Beaver Stadium in LAST year’s sweat- & alcohol-stained gear. Grab something fresh from our collection of Penn State jerseys, T-shirts, and more right HERE.

Warning: The superstitious should skip this article.

The reason? Well, because in the next dozen or so paragraphs we’re going to tempt fate and gaze in the future to predict the Nittany Lions’ starting lineup for the FINAL game of 2022. Yes, you read that correctly – the FINAL game of 2022, presumably a bowl game that (fingers crossed) will be played in 2023.

Around this time every preseason, several publications – be they physical or digital – print out their thoughts regarding Penn State’s Week 1 projected starters. To us, that seems kind of boring, especially since the lone up-in-the-air position battle on offense is whether Sal Wormley or Hunter Nourzad will line up at right guard four Thursdays from now. Instead, we’re projecting four months from now – Who opts-out? Which young player beats out a veteran early-season starter? That sort of thing.

For context, last year only 4 Penn State offensive players that started Week 1 at Wisconsin started in the same spot on January 1 vs. Arkansas…so there’s something to this exercise. One thing we’re not doing, though, is predicting injuries. Not putting that negative energy out in the universe.

So find some salt, spill it, then throw it over your left shoulder … Ok, ready? Let’s tuck in.

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