FTB Goes Bowling For Dollars, Part 2
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Introduction
For the newbies that missed our initial bowl prognostication/Get Rich Quick scheme published on December 17th, shame on you…
…and welcome!
And to the loyal, never miss an ‘ABC’s of Penn State Football’ blog post crew (what we like to call our faithful ‘Read Or Dies’) here’s hoping you’ve been hammering the Over-Unders based off our WAR model’s projected point totals. Why? Well, our Over-Under selections are an insanely good 11-4 (73.3% winners). ATS…not so much. We’re 7-8…but hey, lots of bowl games left — at least there were at the time this was published (note: the Military Bowl and Fenway Bowl both bit the dust in the 15-20 minutes we took editing this piece.)
Additionally, just like in Part 1, we’re going to include some local flavor to these bowl picks by also selecting the best musician/band associated with the region. It’s fun. And we’re pro-fun.
Methodology
For the bowl predictions, I took the lines from CBS Sports. These lines are from December 8th, so there’s likely to be some shifting. Finally, I didn’t use the WAR model exactly as described in the article above. I adjusted the ratings for a strength-of-schedule (SOS) by conference using a combination of my own data and realtimerpi.com data.
In the tables for each game we have the teams, gambling data, and other general info for the bowl. Then, the table features my offensive, defensive, and overall efficiency ratings and rankings. For offense and overall efficiency, higher is better. For defense, lower is better. Then, in the bottom-center are the predicted score and winner (outright and ATS) and along with projected total points versus O/U number.
Bowl Preview
The Game: My neighbor’s son plays for Nevada (8-4) so I’m pulling for the Wolfpack over the Western Michigan Broncos (7-5). Nevada brings an offense that’s in the top third of FBS and will face a WMU defense that’s allowing over 30 PPG. This is one of the few games where our model radically disagrees with Vegas. We have Nevada as a touchdown winner while bookmakers put this as essentially a pick’em early. Couple things that could derail Nevada are the coaching changes that they’re undergoing along with losing some guys to the portal. Regardless, Go Pack!
The Music: Detroit is home to the Motown Sound: The Temptations, Marvin Gaye, Aretha Franklin, Stevie Wonder — all part of a musical dynasty in the 1960s. Detroit is also home tomore contemporary artists like Aaliyah (RIP) and The White Stripes (mentioned for Seven Nation Army). So it’s an impressive list of musical acts. But none of them have had the influence on music, pop culture, and even society as Eminem. For that reason, he’s the pick. The Marshall Mathers LP (2000) is on virtually every list of Top 100 albums ever and represents his real introduction to the mainstream. He is responsible for 9 solo #1 albums, 54 singles, and countless collaborations with some of the most influential artists of the last 50 years (from Elton John, to Dr. Dre and Jay-Z, to Lil Wayne and Rihanna. Top Spotify Hit: ‘Till I Collapse (1.2 Billion)
CANCELED. Entertain Yourselves. Or go take a walk. The Game: The model for ECU (7-5) and Boston College (6-6) has the Eagles winning by less than a point and shows that they have an above average defense despite allowing 28 or more points in half of their games. All of ECU’s losses in 2021 are to bowl teams (App State, South Carolina, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati) and has beaten two bowl teams (Marshall and Memphis). I like the Pirates in this one.
The Music: Toni Braxton was one of the best voices in 90’s R&B who had an incredible smokey voice and combined soulful lyrics with dance beats or more subdued instrumentals. She isn’t quite as popular as some of her contemporaries (Whitney Houston, Mariah Carey) but has some of the most timeless hits of the genre. Top Spotify Hit: Un-Break My Heart (182 million)
The Game: Hello Auburn (6-6) my old friend. Sticking close to home, the Tigers will bus up the road for the Birmingham Bowl where they’ll face AAC runner-up Houston (11-2). After an opening loss to Texas Tech, the Cougars and visor-enthusiast Dana Holgorsen ran off 11-straight wins before losing to Cincinnati in the conference title game. Auburn has one of the wildest 6-6 seasons you’ll find. They opened by scoring 60 points in their first two games before losing to Penn State. Then, the Tigers fought back with a win over LSU before getting blown out by Georgia. Then, they rallied to beat Arkansas and Mississippi and climbed to #13 in the polls…then promptly went on to lose their last 4 games including a soul-sucking overtime Iron Bowl defeat. Our schedule-adjusted predictor has the Tigers barely winning. The unadjusted number has the Cougs by 4.
The Music: Man, Lionel Richie — both as a solo artist and with The Commodores — has way more 70’s and 80’s hits than you think. With the Commodores, he found commercial success with the 1977 release of the group’s self-titled album that reached #3 in the US with hits like “Easy” and “Brick House.” As the US music scene shifted toward the synthetic sounds of the 80’s, Richie found a niche as a solo artist with songs like “Dancing on the Ceiling”, blended island style into a mainstream dance hit with “All Night Long” and has (what I imagine) the most popular wedding song of the 80’s with “Endless Love” (Diana Ross duet). Overall, Lionel Richie has sold more than 100 million albums and is one of the most successful musicians of all-time from Alabama. Top Spotify Hit: All Night Long (All Night) (275 million)
The Game: Another game, another favorite winning outright but not covering. This time we have Louisville (6-6) against Air Force (9-3). Louisville has a strong offense (28th in my adjusted metric; 26th in total yards) and Air Force’s three losses are by a total of 17 points (including an overtime loss to Army). This one should be fun as it is any time a Power 5 team takes on a service academy.
The Music: Few people on this list will have had the longevity of Willie Nelson. He released his first studio album in 1962 and is still touring nearly 50 years later. He is a country music icon who has had chart-topping hits in every decade since the 1960’s. And while Nelson peaked in popularity in the late-70’s and early-80’s, he’s still a force in country and mainstream music today. He’s also widely know for his activism. Nelson founded Farm Aid to assist with American Family Farmers (#ANF), continues to help legalize marijuana in the US, and offered plenty of support and aid to the first responders of 9/11. He is Americana through-and-through. For a fun cover go check out Willie’s version of the Pearl Jam song Just Breathe. Top Spotify Hit: technically it’s Highwaymen (151 million) but I prefer Mammas Don’t Let Your Babies Grow up to be Cowboys with Waylon Jennings (109 million).
The Game: In the Liberty Bowl, the Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5) are favored by 8.5 over the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6). Our model has Mike Leach’s crew winning by 8…so if you just cant help yourself and HAVE to gamble take Texas Tech, I guess. MSU appears to be statistically better than Tech on both sides of the ball but some of that comes from the strength of the SEC boosting the Bulldogs a bit.
The Music: I mean, the dude’s monicker was “The King of Rock n’ Roll” so of course we’re gonna go Elvis Presley here. Lots of singers on this list are famous but few are American Icons. Elvis is an icon. The peanut-butter and bacon sandwich lover had a Christmas album rise to the #1 spot of the US charts. He was the epitome of cool in America in the late 1950’s and ushered in a new era of rock in the 1960’s and beyond. By 2021 standards, the controversy of his hip thrusting being too much for young women of the time is hilarious, but Elvis was the original heartthrob. He died of a heart attack at the age of 42 (allegedly) and tourists still flock to Graceland to this day. Top Spotify Hit: Can’t Help Falling in Love (486 million)
The Game: Oh wow! Look! Our first match-up of Power 5 clubs with winning records! Only took us 10 days and and 20ish bowl games to get one. N.C. State (9-3) faces off against the 8-4 UCLA Bruins inside a baseball stadium with no good seats for football – thrilling. This game will be won/lost when NC State’s top-20 defense is on the field trying to stop the UCLA offense (14th in FBS scoring at 36.5 PPG). On the other side of the ledger, the Wolfpack have the 30th ranked scoring offense. UCLA’s defense is pretty middle of the road. Give me the Wolfpack.
The Music: Technically, Eddie Vedder is from The Whale’s Who-Ha but he’s more associated with the 1990’s Seattle scene than anything from than Southern California, so we’re going with Blink 182. There’s probably no artist on this list that I’ve listened to more than Blink, from the mid-90’s through today. For me, graduating high school in 1997, the evolution of their style and lyrics mimic so much of the growth that people of my age had when their music came out. Enema of the State has a bunch of songs about college and embarrassing hook-ups at a time when people of my age were living it. Then, on Blink 182, songs like Feeling This and I Miss You represent things found and lost in young adulthood. Top Spotify Hit: All the Small Things (624 million)
The Game: Minnesota (8-4) finished a hard-to-figure-out campaign tied for 2nd in the Big Ten West. The Gophers were just a 5-point setback vs. Iowa away from playing in the conference title game. They also lost to Bowling Green as a bajillion-point favorite, too. So who knows? What is known is that Minnesota has the 11th best adjusted defense (14th best unadjusted) in the country – which is much better than I would’ve thought – to go along with a good offense. West Virginia (6-5) owns a quality win over Iowa State but isn’t spectacular in any one category. The Gophers will cover.
The Music: Alice Cooper as a band was formed 1964 in Phoenix, Arizona — 16 years after Alice Cooper the person was formed in Detroit, Michigan. As much as anything, when you think of Alice Cooper, I’d venture that you think about face paint, blood, or snakes (i.e. the horror style that he popularized). Or you think about the fact that Milwaukee is Algonquin for “The Good Land.” Regardless, the band’s final 3 albums (released in 1972-73) all reached Top 10 on the Billboard 200. At 73 years old, Cooper will be touring in 2022, which is crazy impressive He is well known as one of the key influencers of 2000’s horror rock pioneer, Rob Zombie. Top Spotify Hit: Poison (257 million)
CANCELED…but quick question: Isn’t Wasabi a thing? It’s not a brand, is it? Did all Wasabi manufacturers chip in and buy the rights to this ‘game that wasn’t’? The Game: This game should be very fun if you love games where offenses overpower the opposing defenses. Virginia (6-6) goes against SMU (8-4) in a battle of top-25 offenses and lower-third defenses. Both teams are in the top-30 of tempo and scoring efficiency and have defenses in the bottom-50 in scoring allowance. This is the only game with a O/U above 70 and the predictor has it slightly under. The one challenge (especially for the Texas team), may be playing in Boston in the middle of winter where weather could pose a problem.
The Music: If you have one of the 25 greatest rock songs of all-time, you make the list and Aerosmith makes the list. According to Wikipedia, Dream On only reached #59 on the charts when it was released in 1973. It was re-released in 1975 and climbed to #6. Rolling Stone has it as the #174 greatest ever and I think that’s criminally low. Beyond their debut single, Aerosmith has a library of hits that is nearly unrivaled in this list. They’ve had top 10 singles in 1975 (Dream On), 1976 (Walk This Way), 1988 (Angel), 1989 (Love in an Elevator and Janie’s Got a Gun), 1990 (What it Takes), 1998 (I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing – #1), and 2001 (Jaded). That’s 36 years of hits – and they’re all damn near as interesting now as they were when they were released. Top Spotify Hit: I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing (656 million)
The Game: Speaking of terrible seats and sightlines, the Pinstripe Bowl! Brent Pry’s new team, Virginia Tech (6-6), faces off against the Maryland Terrapins (6-6), which should make the Hokies the easy rooting favorite for any and all Penn Staters. The Maryland offense started out the season very well but never found the defense to match. Virginia Tech started the season with what looked like a great win over North Carolina but, as it turned out, the Tar Heels weren’t very good. The Hokies went on to lose games to 5 bowl teams (and Syracuse) but earned the right to freeze in the Bronx by defeating Virginia in the season finale.
The Music: Although born in Brooklyn, The Bronx is home to one of the most influential MCs ever – KRS-One. A gifted lyricist, KRS-One’s hits always spoke of real hardships that still have a shelf-life decades later. He is more than a rapper. He embodies Hip Hop culture in a way that transcends the music and stands apart from the commercial/materialistic slant that dominate the genre. Top Spotify Hit: Sound of da Police (75 million); But, just listen to the entire “I Got Next” album from start to finish.
The Game: Two teams with preseason playoff aspirations square off in the Cheez-It Bowl — The Snackdaddy of Them All. Both Clemson (9-3) and Iowa State (7-5) tend to lean on their similarly strong defenses. I’ve got Iowa State with a minor upset.
The Music: Back to Orlando where we find N’Sync. We could’ve picked Backstreet Boys, N’Sync, or the other myriad boy bands to come out of central Florida. I went with these guys because Justin Timberlake was in N’Sync and is the most famous (and talented) alum of the boy band craze of the early 2000’s. I’ve got nothing else. Top Spotify Hit: Bye Bye Bye (362 million)
The Game: A matchup of two prestigious programs that lost their head coaches to more prestigious programs. Despite making the Pac-12 title game and appearing in the CFP Top 4 rankings for several weeks in November, the Ducks got blown out in 2 of their last 3 games (by 31 and 28 points to Utah). The Sooners also tripped to a 1-2 finish in their last three games with losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State. Both offenses are decent with Oklahoma having an edge. Defensively, they’re very similar in the unadjusted numbers with the strength of the Big XII pushing Oklahoma’s ranking ahead of the Ducks.
The Music: From their Wikipedia page: “Emerging from the 1980s hardcore punk scene, Butthole Surfers quickly became known for their chaotic live shows, black comedy, and a sound that incorporated elements of psychedelia, noise rock, and punk as well as their use of sound manipulation and tape editing.” Their song “Pepper” is cool. Top Spotify Hit: Pepper (55 million)
The Game: The battle of the Carolinas takes place in Charlotte (convenient) when UNC (6-6) squares off against the USCe Gamecocks (6-6). The Tar Heels face-planted in 2021 but did manage to piece together a top-20 offense. Unfortunately, their defense couldn’t even crack the Top 100 best units in FBS. The Gamecocks beat Auburn and Florida and had the 57th best scoring defense in 2021. However, they only scored 28 or more points twice against FBS opponents in 2021.
The Music: Jodeci is an R&B group from Charlotte that’s comprised of DeVante Swing, Mr. Dalvin, K-Ci, and JoJo and hit their peak in the early to mid-90’s when R&B was primarily built to put people in a certain… mood. Top Spotify Hit: Freek’n You (40 million); also check K-Ci and JoJo’s All My Life (177 million).
The Game: Yes, the table says that Tennessee (7-5) has the 3rd best offense and is the 5th best overall team in college football. Computers, man. For what it’s worth, SP+ has Rocky Top at 11 so we’re not that far off. And yes, Purdue (8-4) is listed as the 16th best team with a top-15 defense. Tennessee is the 12th best in FBS when it comes to points-per-drive scoring but Purdue is Tied for 18th in PPD allowed — so something has to give. Of course, most of the players that fueled those lofty rankings won’t be playing, but whatever, it’s football.
The Music: If you have a biopic made about you and it grosses 9-figures, you make the list. Johnny Cash had one of the greatest country/folk voices of his generation. His career began in the 1950’s and The Man in Black kept making music up until his death in 2003. His musical catalog includes: 67 studio albums, 12 live albums, and 105 compilation albums. Whether it was originals like, “I Walk the Line”, “Ring of Fire”, “Folsom Prison Blues” or covers like “Hurt” (Nine Inch Nails), “In My Life” (The Beatles), or “It Ain’t Me Babe” (Bob Dylan) – Johnny made them his own with his distinct, emotional voice. Top Spotify Hits: Original – Ring of Fire (237 million), Cover – Hurt (442 million)
The Game: The first of the NY6 bowls is a doozy for Penn State fans as we get to watch our Land Grant Trophy rivals – Michigan State (10-2) – face off against intrastate sorta rivals Pitt (11-2, ACC Champions). The Pitt offense was spectacular in 2021 and finished top 15 in points-per-drive and 8th overall. Defensively, they were 17th in yards-per-drive allowed. The Spartans lived on the edge all season but survived (OT win against Nebraska, 5-point win over Indiana, 4 points over Michigan, 3 points over PSU although that one wasn’t as close). I believe that this games goes more like their Ohio State game than those close wins; it seems to be a charmed season for the Panthers.
The Music: Outkast had great balance as a duo with Big Boi being a more traditional rapper and Andre 3000 being something very different. The combination makes for some incredible mixes that blend biting rap verses with something more reminiscent of funk. As a group, they had their first mainstream commercial success with ATLiens in 1996 and what followed was a run of #1/2 albums that lasted a decade. Their 2003 double album of Speakerboxx/The Love Below broke the duality apart and was the beginning of the pair seeming to go their separate ways but generated two #1 hits in “Hey Ya” and “The Way You Move”. Top Spotify Hit: technically it’s “Hey Ya” but I’m picking “Ms. Jackson” (559 million)
The Game: The Las Vegas Bowl — the 573rd best way to spend a Thursday in Vegas — features the Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4) and the Wisconsin Badgers (8-4). Both teams have very strong defenses –arguably the best in the Big Ten and Pac-12, respectively. Offensively, they’re both about the same statistically with Arizona State getting the slight edge on the whole season. But, except for their final game loss to Minnesota, the Badgers were averaging >30 points per game since their loss to Michigan. A big win by Wisconsin wouldn’t shock here.
The Music: There are few things more quintessentially Las Vegas than The Rat Pack. Well, quintessentially Old Vegas, that is . We’re talking small, smokey hotels and casinos, organized crime, and general sense of lawlessness. Not the New Vegas of suburbia, giant family-friendly hotels, and weird looking football stadiums. The Rat Pack was comprised of (mainly) Sammy Davis Jr., Frank Sinatra, and Dean Martin — collectively, the coolest dudes to ever grace the desert strip. Top Spotify Hits: Sinatra – Fly Me to the Moon (408 million); Davis Jr. – Something’s Gotta Give (18 million); Martin (non-Christmas) – Everybody Loves Somebody (71 million)
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