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For The Blogy - A New Look at the Penn State Nittany Lions
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PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 8, PSU vs. OSU

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Introduction

As weird as it sounds, Saturday’s battle between Penn State and Ohio State simultaneously showed the Nittany Lions have the talent to complete with anyone in the Big Ten AND reminded us how far away they are from truly being “elite.” And yeah, the whole elite thing is a played out cliché at this point, but it still applies here. Sorry James, you made this bed, not us.

Despite entering as 2-touchdown underdogs in the desert, many pundits felt Penn State matched up better against the Buckeyes than they did against Michigan two weeks prior. Through 51-ish minutes on Saturday, this was proven true as the Nittany Lions grabbed a 21-16 late lead on a gutsy 4th down TD run by Kaytron Allen. Then things changed. The Ohio State offense that had been relatively rudderless through three and half quarters scored 21 points on 175 yards in about three and a half minutes of possession. The Ohio State defense generated, with great plays, two more turnovers to bring their total to four. And the Penn State fan base left the game frustrated and confused about how things can change so quickly.

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October 30, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – The Jim Knowles Effect

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Introduction

If you haven’t heard, Penn State welcomes its toughest opponent of this year (and seemingly every year) as Ohio State visits Beaver Stadium for a Saturday Gusgasm-filled nooner. The leaf sticker wearers have brandished a lethal offense for close to a decade now. Normally, that potent attack has been complemented by a defense full of future multi-millionaires performing as a cohesive, stubborn unit. I say “normally” because 2020 and 2021 were certainly exceptions to the standard.

Enter Jim Knowles.

The bearded bastion of defense started his career as the DC at Duke from 2010-2017 before moving to OSU-Central (Oklahoma State) from 2018-2021. For various reasons, both of those posts come with a litany of challenges – Duke with its talent deficiencies and Okie State plays in the Big XII (nuf said). And yet, at both spots, Knowles somehow made it work. And though the 2022 season is far from complete, thus far, Knowles has taken Ohio State’s full cupboard of talent and orchestrated a substantial defensive turnaround…evidenced in the various basic and advanced stats we’re about to present.

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October 25, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 7, Minnesota

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Introduction

Being a Penn State fan for the last couple of months has been more emotionally volatile than getting your salary in Bitcoin. After Purdue and Auburn, the team and fanbase was riding a high that cooled a bit after the Central Michigan game. Then we hit the doldrums of the Northwestern hurricane/turnover game where the horrid weather conditions served as the perfect “Yeah, but…” for the Nittany Lions’ lackluster play on the field. Then, Michigan happened…no further context necessary.

Before Saturday’s game against Minnesota both James Franklin and Sean Clifford apparently got booed during video-board pregame introductions. The groans grew louder when Penn State followed two straight 3-and-outs with an interception. Then, the rest of the game played out, and the vibes flipped 180 degrees. 45 points and 4 passing TDs later, the most dangerous four-letter word in the English language, HOPE, has returned to Happy Valley as we welcome Wendy’s spokesman Reggie Bush, Dublin, Ohio barfly Urban Meyer, and Big Ten bully Ohio State to town six days from now. It’s a rollercoaster, man.

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October 23, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Ciarrocca vs. Yurcich

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Introduction

Annnnd Scene.

Well, it’s Tuesday night. Like a runover raccoon, the Michigan debacle grows more and more distant in the rearview mirror as we move forward and face another horse-and-plow rushing attack, that being P.J.’s coxswains led by former Minnesota OC/former PSU OC/current Minnesota OC Kirk Ciarrocca. For those of you who like to bury traumatic, painful memories at inaccessible depths within in your subconscious mind, James Franklin hired Ciarrocca to replace Ricky Rahne in late December 2019. Four wins and several hundred Zoom meetings later, Franklin dumped Ciarrocca in favor of ousted Texas OC Mike Yurcich.

Today we’re going to compare Ciarrocca and Yurcich by examining how they fared in several basic and advanced stat categories while at Penn State, and during Ciarrocca’s two tenures at Minnesota.

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October 18, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 6: PSU vs. Michigan

Sponsor: For The Blogy’s 2022 season coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Spare the embarrassment of showing up to Beaver Stadium in LAST year’s sweat- & alcohol-stained gear. Grab something fresh from our collection of Penn State jerseys, T-shirts, and more right HERE.

Introduction

Technically, the game hasn’t ended, yet here I am letting my fingers clack away on the keyboard because the competitive phase of this Big Noon Nightmare has been over for close to 45 minutes. Other than a Carnival-Ring-Toss-Bounce Pick Six and Sean Clifford’s 62-yard run in his old man Nike Air Monarchs, not a lot went right for the good guys in white. This was (is…) a wakeup call for the Penn State fanbase as it dramatically hits the hopes for a Big Ten championship, playoff appearance, and a breakthrough from the previous two years of mediocrity. All that’s left to ponder is whether this 5-0 start will turn out to be fools gold like last year’s 5-0 start.

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October 15, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Bye Week: The Manny Diaz Difference

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Introduction

Chips are for cookies. Chips are for dip. Chips are for overheating inside my outdated iPhone the millisecond Apple releases a new iteration (I’m onto your little scheme, Bono).

The object fastened to Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s shoulder this season isn’t a chip – it’s a damn boulder. Sedimentary? Igneous? Metamorphic? Who knows, and honestly, who cares. All that matters is that the jilted former head coach (seriously, have you read the details of his ugly estrangement with Miami??!?!) is pulling levers and pushing buttons with an edge capable of cutting diamonds after administrators snatched away Diaz’s dream job and hired an overpaid replacement who Aqib Talib’d his Turnover Chain and tossed it in the trash.

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October 5, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Week 5: PSU vs. Northwestern

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Introduction

Calling the weather conditions during Saturday’s Penn State-Northwestern game ‘miserable’ would be a disservice to what those scattered poncho’d warriors endured inside Beaver Stadium. The steadiness and intensity of the rain – the dying, damp breathes of Hurricane Ian — was apparent through my TV (except when baseball came on and the screen size shrunk by 80%) and it absolutely looked like a place I wouldn’t want to be. But, sitting in my living room in Houston, Texas where the weather outside was 85 degrees and sunny didn’t feel much better. Not after that performance. The turnovers and sloppy offensive play made us all feel like we were sitting in a cold, heavy rain all day – even if only figuratively. Now, the silver lining is that the Nittany Lions managed to win the game. And, at the end of the day, that’s all that really matters in any given week. Penn State enters the bye week fairly healthy and with a 5-0 record. Still, like the weather Saturday, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows around Happy Valley, so let’s reflect on the ups and downs of the Nits’ 10-point escape vs. the Wildcats. Off we go…

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October 2, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Week 4: PSU vs. CMU

Sponsor: For The Blogy’s 2022 season coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Spare the embarrassment of showing up to Beaver Stadium in LAST year’s sweat- & alcohol-stained gear. Grab something fresh from our collection of Penn State jerseys, T-shirts, and more right HERE.

Introduction

It was the best of times, it was the okay-ist of times, I guess.

Penn State is 4-0 after downing their 2nd MAC foe in three games as the the Central Michigan University Chippewas managed to hang around but never really threaten during a 33-14 setback at Beaver Stadium. Penn State football Twitter (the community not the university account) was in some disarray after CMU came back to tie the game at 14 late in the 2nd quarter. Then, the Nittany Lions scored the final 19 points to close out the game. Of course, that didn’t silence the army of keyboard warriors out there. There was concern about quarterback play and decision making. There was concern about the run game that was stifled for much of the first half. There was concern about the Lions’ pass catchers. Regardless, Penn State has safely navigated 1/3rd of its 2022 slate without a hiccup in the loss column and sit comfortably within the Top 15 nationally. This on a Saturday where several top-ranked teams looked shaky, even indestructible Georgia. So, Penn State Twitter, give your frantic fingers a rest while we explored where Penn State ranks nationally in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency.

But first…

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September 25, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Week 3: PSU vs. Auburn

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Introduction

Not to be hyperbolic but, in my opinion, Saturday’s game against Auburn was the most dominant and complete performance by a Penn State team under James Franklin. Maybe the score wasn’t as lopsided as 59-0 (2019 Maryland), 51-6 (2018 Pitt), or the 79-0 season-opening laugher against Idaho in 2019. But, against Auburn in “vaunted” Jordan-Hare Stadium with all its supposed magical juju – weird that a nearby barn burning is considered “magic”, but whatever — the Nittany Lions weren’t expected to have a 4-score lead and the luxury of empty the bench in the 4th Quarter.

There was a lot of talk last week about “SEC speed” and how Penn State has never experienced a home-field advantage like this one, despite Jordan-Hare’s capacity falling well short of 100,000. Well, I was there. And yes, to start the game, the scene was electric. It was absolutely louder than Iowa in 2017/19. Also, it was hot. Could the team from up north hold up in the heat and humidity of a late-Alabama summer? Not only did they hold up but by the end of the 3rd quarter you heard many more “We Are” chants than “War Eagle, Hey” ones. On both sides of the ball, Penn State dominated this game in several facets, all of which we’ll illustrate with numbers and fun graphs and all the accoutrements you’ve come to expect from The ABC’s of Penn State Football.

Here we go.

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September 18, 2022by FTB Nathan
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Week 2: PSU vs. Ohio

Sponsor: For The Blogy’s 2022 season coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Spare the embarrassment of showing up to Beaver Stadium in LAST year’s sweat- & alcohol-stained gear. Grab something fresh from our collection of Penn State jerseys, T-shirts, and more right HERE.

Introduction

“It’s only Ohio. It’s only Ohio.” – Me, muttering myself over and over while I look up ticket prices for the CFP National Championship Game in LA.

Yeah, it’s only Ohio, but over the past two years we’ve witnessed Penn State play down to the level of lesser competition often enough (see: Illini, Fighting) to not take any game for granted. Saturday, against the Bobcats and their retro helmets, Penn State showed why we fans should return to a state of unfettered optimism for 2022 and beyond. The guys with college experience under their belts – Sean Clifford, Chop Robinson, to name a couple – had very good games. And the young guys – Nick Singleton, Drew Allar, Harrison Wallace, DDS, and so many others – got real reps against a real opponent and showed why they were so coveted as recruits. Most importantly, their early-season emergence provides insurance that if there are injury issues down the line (which 100% will happen) the team isn’t going to collapse as they did last year. Penn State’s depth is as good as it has been in a very long time.

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September 11, 2022by FTB Nathan
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