Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Game 7, Minnesota
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Introduction
Being a Penn State fan for the last couple of months has been more emotionally volatile than getting your salary in Bitcoin. After Purdue and Auburn, the team and fanbase was riding a high that cooled a bit after the Central Michigan game. Then we hit the doldrums of the Northwestern hurricane/turnover game where the horrid weather conditions served as the perfect “Yeah, but…” for the Nittany Lions’ lackluster play on the field. Then, Michigan happened…no further context necessary.
Before Saturday’s game against Minnesota both James Franklin and Sean Clifford apparently got booed during video-board pregame introductions. The groans grew louder when Penn State followed two straight 3-and-outs with an interception. Then, the rest of the game played out, and the vibes flipped 180 degrees. 45 points and 4 passing TDs later, the most dangerous four-letter word in the English language, HOPE, has returned to Happy Valley as we welcome Wendy’s spokesman Reggie Bush, Dublin, Ohio barfly Urban Meyer, and Big Ten bully Ohio State to town six days from now. It’s a rollercoaster, man.
Quick Hitters
- Going into the Michigan game, we touted the defense’s disruption as they were generating 21 HAVOC plays per game. Against the Wolverines that number dropped to 9 (1 sack, 7 TFL, and 1 pass break-up) which wiped away a lot of that statistical shine. Against the Gophers, though, Manny Diaz’s defenders rebounded with 15 HAVOC plays (7 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 6 PBU’s). They’ll need every one of them against the Buckeyes.
- The kicking game was good this week. Jake Pinegar hit all 6 PATs and added a Field Goal. The specialists had no poor kick-offs, and Barney Amor was his normal solid self.
- Curtis Jacobs and Abdul Carter combined for 22 tackles against Minnesota. For the first time, Manny Diaz figured out ways to get both guys on the field at the same time on 1st and 2nd downs (previously, Carter and Jacobs had only appeared at the same time on 3rd and long passing situations when Penn State subbed into its DIME package.)
Basic Statistics
Penn State dominated Minnesota this week at nearly the same clip that Michigan dominated the Lions last week( volatility…). With Tanner Morgan out, and for myriad other reasons, the Gophers are not the same team that Michigan is, so these two games are not fully comparable. But, it was great to see Penn State bounce back with energy and execution after falling flat in several statistical data points following their first loss in 2021 and 2020.
So what jumps out? How about total plays and time-of-possession. This is an area where Minnesota (especially with Mo Ibrahim rowing the boat and Kirk Ciarrocca piloting it) has been dominant this season. In fact, Penn State’s ability to get Minnesota off the field was one of my big concerns going into the day. Apparently, I was worried about nothing. The Penn State defense held strong against the Big Ten’s third best rush offense (228 YPG and 5.3 YPR coming into the contest) limiting them them to 165 total yards. The Gophers managed a few chunk plays in the passing game but, like Penn State last week, these were too few and far between for it to make a difference. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, generated big plays all night, ending the evening with 7.1 yards per play. That average, and the Lions’ 479 total yards were by far the most Minnesota allowed so far (prior, the Gophers D was averaging 4.7 YPP and 264 YPG). Tremendous job on both sides of the ball by Penn State this week.
The Quarterback
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in! – Michael Corleone” – Nate Wilmot
After Michigan, I was a Sean Clifford doubter. To be fair, you could’ve let 2019 Joe Burrow play for Penn State against Michigan and it likely wouldn’t have made much of a difference, but it seemed like time for a change under center to light a spark. Against Minnesota, Sean Clifford WAS that spark. With the exception of an early (and very ugly) interception he was sharp, accurate-ish, and did all the right things.
Today, we’re going examine Clifford’s Whiteout farewell and the super senior’s trajectory through the years in a variety of stats. They’re all pretty basic stats but collectively they tell a tale of a quarterback who CAN be very good at times and who CAN lead his offense to pristine performances…again, at times.
In the graph below, each point represents a game (with the opponent’s logo and label next to it) and each colored line represents a season. Let’s start with completion percentage. Clifford completed 74% of his throws vs. Minnesota – matching his season high set at Auburn, and tied for the 3rd best of his long career, bested only by 2019 Maryland and the 2021 Auburn Whiteout. What’s interesting is that the few times where Clifford has had a bad (below 50%) performance, he tends to bounce back brilliantly the next week – 2019 Pitt to 2019 Maryland, for example.
Next, total passing yards. Clifford’s 295 yards against Minnesota were a season high and halted the season-long downward trajectory since the Purdue game. Here again, for his career, there have been ups-and-downs. Saturday’s 295 yards don’t rank particularly high compared to some other performances he’s had in years past, but it did stop the 2022 passing yard-slide we’ve seen since Week 1.
However, Clifford racked up those 295 yards on only 31 passes, good for 9.5 yards-per-attempt (YPA) below. Against Big Ten competition this was the 3rd best YPA of Clifford’s career behind 2019 Maryland and 2020 Illinois – #ChampionsWeekChamps. Clifford’s per throw average was certainly boosted by Penn State’s vertical passing attack. Against Minnesota there were completions of 35, 25, 30, 22, and 38 yards. That’s 150 yards on 5 passes (50% of the yards, 16% of the throws). Against Michigan, Clifford got 50% of his 120 yards on 1 (5%) throw – the 3rd quarter deep ball to Harrison Wallace.
Next is the difference between TD passes and Interceptions (TD-INT Ratio), another basic stat that’s a good measure of efficiency. Yes, Clifford threw a pick to the Minnesota defense. But, he bounced back to toss 4 touchdowns (two to tight ends and two to wide receivers). That left Clifford with a +3 TD-INT ratio, which was nearly a career high (he finished +4 vs. Buffalo in 2019 – that’s the “X” near the left of the chart. Sorry, couldn’t find a tiny Buffalo or Idaho logo). Compared again to the last couple of weeks, this is a very good bounceback. Interestingly, Clifford has never had a negative TD-INT ratio vs. Ohio State. He’ll need to be 2+ to give the team a chance to win next week.
Finally, we end with Passer Rating. Quite simply, in this metric, this was one of the best performances of Sean’s career and easily the best of the season – 190.3 Like some of the other stats, the 2022 Minnesota game was Clifford’s 3rd best Passer Rating performance versus Big Ten competition and his best against FBS competition in the last two years.
It was great to see Clifford have the performance he did against the Gophers during this, his final Whiteout. He finishes 3-0 in Whiteouts with people in the stands and, as I’ve said before, play decently when the lights are brightest and the stakes are high (last week’s Michigan performance notwithstanding). Going into the game, I was a big doubter as I mentioned above. I’m a believer again, though. I’m a believer that when the Buckeyes come to Happy Valley next week, our QB1 will give the Lions a chance. Of course, there are many other variables that determine the outcome, and stats show most of those variables work against Penn State. But a focused, healthy, and accurate Sean Clifford could go a long way toward Penn State pulling off a monumental upset.
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