Ask an AP Top 25 College Football Poll Voter

Fox 8 New Orleans Sports Reporter/AP Poll Voter/Friend of the Blog Garland Gillen Spoke With FTB About the Big Ten’s Place in the Rankings and the Tough Task of Picking 25 Teams When Everyone Isn’t Playing 

FTB: How have you handled placing Big Ten teams in your Top 25 considering the on-off-then-on-again nature of the conference’s season?

GG: It’s been difficult. Initially, the AP preseason poll came out before the Big Ten’s decision to cancel the 2020 Fall season, so you saw a lot of Big Ten teams in the poll. To be honest, before COVID forced conferences to mess with all the schedules I had a Big Ten team, Ohio State, as preseason No. 1 in my poll that I submitted. 

Then, they told us to take the Big Ten out when they decided they were going to punt on the season. So for a lot of September, I didn’t have any Big Ten teams in my rankings…not until they changed their mind and decided they’re playing again. So I have Big Ten teams in my poll right now, but there are some AP voters who are only including the teams playing on Saturdays – so no Big Ten. That’s their right. They can do that.

FTB: So if not every AP voter is including the Big Ten currently, do you expect Big Ten teams to shoot up in the polls after this Saturday?

GG: Probably. If you look at the latest AP poll, you have all these Cinderella teams – teams like BYU and Cincinnati – ranked higher than they normally are in mid-October because 2/5ths of the Power 5 conferences aren’t playing yet. Are the darlings like Coastal Carolina going to hang around in the poll once the Big Dogs start rolling this weekend?

You look at Ohio State. If they smoke Nebraska by 40, they’re probably going to catapult a team like Notre Dame who has looked shaky, and a one-loss Georgia. If Wisconsin does what they’re supposed to do against Illinois on Friday, then they probably leapfrog No. 12 BYU. The Big Ten is the new shiny thing this weekend, so you’ll see a real bump for those teams in the rankings assuming they look good. 

FTB: Will the Big Ten’s decision to start the season so late ultimately help or hurt teams when it comes to Top 25 rankings?

GG: I think it’s actually a huge positive. Teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin are just kind of kicking back while other conferences like the Big XII – except for Oklahoma State — and even teams in the SEC have disappointed and have played themselves out of the Top 10. You have two teams in our Top 8 – Ohio State and Penn State — that haven’t played a game yet. If Ohio State or Penn State wins out, they’ll be in our Top 4 and the College Football Playoff Final 4, even though they started late and only play 9 games. AP obviously doesn’t factor in the Playoff equation, but they definitely look at what we’re doing. 

The only thing with the Big Ten, which could really backfire and keep them out of the playoff, is how they backed themselves in a corner with cramming 9 games in 9 weeks and how strict their COVID protocols are. No bye weeks, at all. If Ohio State goes 6-0 and has three games postponed, I don’t know if they make it.  

FTB: It probably matters which games, if any, Big Ten contenders don’t get to play because of COVID, don’t you think?

GG: Right. If you’re trying to state your case as Penn State, you don’t want to have that Ohio State game come off the schedule. If Rutgers or Maryland gets canceled, that won’t really hurt Penn State’s resume. But you can’t cancel a Saturday night primetime showcase game against a team that’s won the Big Ten for three straight years.  

Another thing is weather. No one talks about the Big Ten playing games outside in mid-December. Hypothetically, let’s say Penn State has one loss – a close loss to Ohio State that they get beat at the buzzer with a field goal, let’s say. How would an ugly 12-9 Penn State win vs. Michigan State because the game is played in a blizzard affect their perception nationally? Would snow or wind or just nasty weather be the reason they finished No. 5 instead of No. 4? If you need style points at the end, that’s an issue. 

FTB: If there were ever a year for the Big Ten to get two teams in the CFP, is this the year?

GG: So the only conference to get two teams in the Playoff has been the SEC – and it only happened once. So the odds say no. But, the SEC is down this year. It looks rough right now. Texas A&M is a team that could wreck the party with one loss to Alabama and they don’t really play anyone else who is a threat this year. The SEC East is over with unless the winner can beat Alabama in the title game. So maybe the Big Ten could get two in – especially two teams with prestige and a name — BUT if anything disrupts the schedule it’s going to be a major gut-punch to that conference.