Where The Rose Bowl Will Be Won: Utah Receivers vs. Penn State Secondary

Sponsor: Looking for last-minute seats to The Granddaddy Of Them All? Go with a trusted source, STUBHUB. Be sure to use our FTB STUBHUB LINK so that we too can wet our beaks in the deep pool of Service and Convenience Fees.

For our readers who have been A) abducted for the past month or B) experiencing never-ending rolling power blackouts or C) stuck in line at PHL, DTW, IAH, or some other three-lettered torture chamber/airport since early December trying to reschedule your canceled Southwest flight, All-American Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will be the only healthy-ish Nittany Lion defender choosing to sit the Rose Bowl on January 2. If not the greatest cornerback who ever called Beaver Stadium home, then certainly slated to be the highest-drafted, JPJ opted to forego the free trip to Pasadena, thus eliminating any chance that a tweak, pull, sprain, or tear might jeopardize the millions of dollars that await him on future Sundays. We certainly wish JPJ luck, but as his famous father’s former boss like to say: “We’ll focus our attentions on the players who make themselves available to us.”

Now, let’s talk about Ji’Ayir Brown. Can we talk about Ji’Ayir please, Mac? I’ve been dying to talk about Ji’Ayir with you all day. After setting the pace for all of College Football in interceptions last year (6), Brown leads all B1G safeties in PFF pass rush grade (88.5), pass rushes (44), sacks (3) and QB pressures (10). If we expand our search parameters to include the Pac-12, the only guy who tops any of those numbers is (ironically) Utah’s Cole Bishop. Coincidence…or conspiracy?

At this stage, Tig is like an unpaid, store-brand Minkah Fitzpatrick; there’s nothing he can’t do. Wherever you put him on the field he’s either going to make a play, scare the QB into looking the other way, or tackle a lead blocker and ballcarrier at the same time to shut Michigan down at the goal-line:

Penn State CB Kalen King’s 90.1 PFF coverage grade was the ninth-best mark in the nation. His 18 passes defensed (per GoPSUSports.com) lead all Power Five defenders. All this and the guy is only a true sophomore. So there’s a lot to be excited about there. Also, remember what King did in last year’s bowl game against a much larger man? He’s not afraid to stick his face in the fan.

Opponent passer rating when targeted in 2022 illustrates how difficult Penn State’s secondary has made life for enemy QBs: Johnny Dixon 43.9, Keaton Ellis 52.5, Daequan Hardy 53.1, Ji’Ayir 59.2, Kalen King 59.3. Four of the five (Brown being the exception) have allowed less than 50% completion rates on passes thrown their way. As a unit, Penn State defensive backs only allowed five coverage TDs in 2022 – a very forgivable number when stacked next to their 7 fumble recoveries, 7.5 sacks, 10 INTs and 58 PBUs (per GoPSUSports.com). The back-end of this PSU defense is – in my opinion – the most complete unit.

Let’s talk about how Utah’s going to attack them.

Utah Receivers

Dalton Kincaid was the best tight end in College Football (capital C, capital F) this year according to several metrics — PFF receiving grade (91.8), total receiving yards (890), and by receptions for 1st downs (49). He’s tied for second in TDs (8) and missed tackles forced (15), for good measure. Annnnd, he’s gone. Well, not gone, but the All-American worthy big body opted out of the Rose Bowl, begging the question: why did I bother to tell you all that? Well, might the disappearance of his primary target frustrate Utah QB Cam Rising into mistakes?

Possibly.

Speaking of Rising, he is the athlete Sean Clifford fancies himself to be…and with better hair. Utah was 4/4 in 4th down conversions in the two games against USC this year. And in all four cases, it was Rising finding a crack an moving the chains with his legs.

In those “gotta-have-it” situations the Utes do a good job of scheming guys open. They use crossing route patterns to “rub off” defenders in tight man coverage, like Michigan did to Kalen King last year in the 4^th Quarter. If they’re seeing a lot of zone coverage — as they often do, with how much running their QB does — they’ll use “flood” and “spot” concepts to overload one side of the field. Or, they try to get a couple guys out in front and just let Rising freelance.

Senior Devaughn Vele leads Utah’s remaining pass-catchers in targets (82), receptions (50), yards (595), TDs (5) and receptions for first down (36). At 6’5”/205 he’s got a touch of George Pickens in him: a chuck-it-up-and-trust-him-to-win-his-battle vertical threat (8/20 contested catches, per PFF). Sidenote: Vele is the only non-quarterback to attempt a pass for the Utes this season.

In the slot, you’ll have a couple Smurfs chasing each other around: Jaylen “No Relation to Johnny” Dixon and Daequan Hardy (Penn State’s nickel back) are both about three apples tall (5’9”). Dixon put a fumble on the turf in the PAC-12 Championship against USC, but he had 0 drops and caught 80% of his targets this year.

The Utes fans I spoke with on Twitter agreed Dixon is their speediest receiver. Coach Kyle Whittingham will move him around a bit but he’s worked over 90% of his snaps this year in the slot. He’ll lull you to sleep with those quick-breaking routes then make you pay with a double move.

WR Money Parks appears to be their primary X-receiver. For those who don’t know, the X is tethered to the line of scrimmage. Unlike the slot receiver (“F”) who is set back a step, the X has no cushion so he has to be able to defeat a jam off the line (press coverage). Parks led his team this year in average depth of target (13.6) and yards/rec (16.1). Manny Diaz is going to want his DBs to get hands on him to disrupt his release. Utah can make that more difficult with bunch formations and motion. You can’t jam a guy stacked behind a beefy TE, or if he’s running behind the LOS at the snap.

Speaking of beefy tight ends, I’d be remiss to not mention Kincaid’s understudy: Thomas Yassmin. The 6’5”/251-pound rugby convert is certainly a trailblazer, coming all the way from scenic Sydney, Australia to play football in Salt Lake City. In limited opportunities this year (16 targets) he has 12 catches, 7 first downs and 5 touchdowns.

Utah loved to use two- and three-TE sets before Brant Kuithe was lost to a torn ACL. I’d expect mostly 11-personnel and some big sets for short yardage scenarios for this game. Expect at least one TE screen…and don’t let him get that motor revved up.