Where The Rose Bowl Will Be Won: Penn State RBs vs. Utah LBs

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Keyvone Lee: BACK. Caedan Wallace, Juice Scruggs and Olu Fashanu: BACK to BACK to BACK. Nick Singleton: FAST. Kaytron Allen: FAT(man).

After patching the run game together for much of November with wads of Hubba-Bubba, rubber cement and the free, second can of Flex Seal (James Franklin ordered “within the next 15 minutes” when the commercial popped on – Smart Man), the Nittany Lions appear to be back at full strength against the Utes when these two squads clash just on the other side of the calendar crease.

Penn State’s tandem of true freshmen (Singleton and Allen) combined for 2,346 all-purpose yards…more than 400 yards better than any single player in College Football this year. There’s a lesson there.

Speaking of lessons, check out this strange east/west lopsided yardage distribution between Singleton and Allen. All nine of Kaytron’s TDs have come on runs to the left while every metric for Nick favors the right by a factor of at least 2.

Here’s why I think that is:

The strong side of the offensive formation is generally the right and it makes sense to design runs to the side where you have more beef. However, PFF charts the resultant run direction, not the scripted path of the play. I think Nick Singleton – being a Highlander – is better at producing on-script. Point him in a direction and he’ll run past/over most anything in his way. If this game goes the way I think it might, heading into 2023 he’ll be a front runner for the Heisman (the Prize-man trophy: “There Can Be Only One”).

Kaytron Allen has the same advantage any mortal better have who finds themself in competition with a god: his wit and wile. He sees the field like Neo sees the Matrix. If there’s a lane to leak out the back-side Kaytron will find it, then race the safety to the sideline/end zone.

Keyvone Lee hasn’t been active since Week 7 and only has one rushing attempt since Week 5. Many of you would rather his snaps go to one of the freshman but there aren’t many teams with a better third running back. Talent sells tickets but depth wins trophies.

Lee forced a season-high 7 missed tackles last year against Wisconsin despite registering no runs longer than 2 yards. Sometimes his slipperiness takes him from frying pan to fire but when he gets going it’s like trying to tackle Flubber. You can’t control that kind of elusiveness, you can only hope to harness it.

To summarize: Penn State’s RB room is a cinematic all-star team of Mel Gibson, Keanu Reeves and Robin Williams. Let’s talk about what Utah will try and do about that.

Utah Defense

Utah plays a familiar base alignment to Penn State’s 4-3 but like many modern defenses they spend more time in a 4-2-5 “Nickel.” Pay attention to the WILL LB; sometimes he’s actually a safety.

Overall, the Utes are an under-sized defense. They compensate with heavier box counts, mostly showing (and playing) single-high shells. As such, you’re going to see a lot of man coverage in this game. That’s good news for Sean Clifford, who is as good as anyone in college football at diagnosing blitzes.

Their most disruptive defender – Gabe Reid – transferred after four years at Stanford to play with his younger brother, Karene. Gabe (6’/247) plays the “closed end” (strong-side DE); the eye test elicits comparisons to James Harrison (6’/243).

If Penn State runs to the right, they’d be smart to take it out wide and “block down” to seal that edge. Crack-back blocks are your best friend when dealing with problematic ends; might I recommend the “crack sweep”? If not, maybe the “crack toss” is more to your taste. I feel like a crack sommelier.

Karene Reid plays their “Rover” role, which is a more coverage-focused WILL linebacker. I’d wager Stanford’s kicking themselves for not offering this kid. He’s the most versatile player on Utah’s defense: he lines up on the line, in the box, as a slot corner, outside corner. Consequently he’s on the field more – and has recorded more tackles – than anyone on their defense, other than the safeties.

Generally it’s a bad sign for your defense if your starting safeties are #1 and #2 in tackles. That might spook you box score scouts, but it makes sense for how Utah plays. Cole Bishop popped up in my scouting of Ji’Ayir Brown as the only safety in the B1G or PAC-12 who blitzed more than Tig this year. Now I know why: he’s basically a linebacker. His 21 pressures led all Power Five safeties.

Longtime Utah HC Kyle Whittingham – the architect of the Utes defense this century –labels his strong-side linebacker, the STUD (“SAM”). Last year, that was Devin Lloyd: the best defender Utah’s had in the modern era, according to Whittingham. Now that guy is Lander Barton: a 6’4”, 230-pound true freshman with two older brothers who made it to the NFL by way of Utah (Cody is a LB for Seattle and Jackson is an OL for Las Vegas). They’re not quite the Watt’s (or even the Edmunds’) but it’s safe to assume the kid has ‘ball in his blood.

Mohamoud Diabate – a Florida transfer – is Utah’s ‘MAC’ linebacker (aka MIKE linebacker). He’s mostly a coverage guy but in dime situations (3-2-6) they’ll roll a LB (usually Diabate or Barton) down to preserve their four-man front. He’s actually Utah’s leading sacker (7) and blitzed a career-high 25 times in the PAC-12 Championship. Sean Clifford is one of the best in college football at diagnosing pressure; I expect to see him pointing at #3 a lot.

Diabate has elite straight-line speed but a peculiar missed tackle rate for an off-ball ‘backer (21.4%). With his length and aptitude for downhill play he projects more as an EDGE but it seems like he sees the field better set back from the line.

Despite holding opponents to a league-best 107.0 rush yards per game this season, Utah has allowed more than 150 yards on the ground 5 times.  So, there should be opportunities for Penn State to find balance offensively, instead of hanging its hopes solely on Sean Clifford’s right shoulder.