What’s The Whiteout Really Worth?

Fox Analyst/Depressed Postgame Papa John’s Eater meme Urban Meyer recently said the annual mark-your-calendar extravaganza provides 10-point advantage for the good guys. To find out if that’s even close to true, we went all ‘Beautiful Mind’ and crunched some numbers.

Look, the Whiteout is incredible. 

To borrow a line from the Southern University Human Jukebox Marching Band, the Whiteout is “often imitated, never duplicated.” Blackouts, Maizeouts, Maroonouts…sorry, they just don’t hit the same. 

Penn State’s Whiteout remains the greatest stage in college football and when the weather’s right and the opponent is formidable, there’s no better scene in sports. I mean, in what other setting can video of a non-snap go viral?

But for Urban Meyer to say the Whiteout gives Penn State a 10-point advantage – insinuating that this year’s Witness-less Whiteout will zap away that edge – is totally hyperbolic. No disrespect to you, me, and the strangers I kept high-fiving (damn, remember high-fives?) all around Section EFU last October, but to claim our drunken yells are worth two freaking possessions is loony talk. 

To put things in perspective, sports gambling icon RJ Bell authored a 2013 piece for Grantland where he interviewed a handful of Vegas odds makers and had them put a point-value on star quarterbacks. The top player? Peyton Manning at 7 points. More recently, FanDuel adjusted the 2019 Week 8 Chiefs-Packers “look ahead” spread a total of 6 points after Patrick Mahomes’ injured his leg in Week 7 against Denver. 

So Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are worth a touchdown, but rowdy Ed and Phyllis from Camp Hill are worth 10 points, Urban? OK, got it. 

But to the former coach’s larger point, the Penn State Whiteout must offer some benefit for the home team, right? Well, the ForTheBlogy math wizards took a break from typing 58008 in our calculators to amuse our friends and dissected box scores from every full-stadium Whiteout to see if the monochromatic-clad crowd offers any true benefit compared to normal Beaver Stadium games…and if it does, in what ways?

For the sake of this study, we didn’t factor in games against I-AA/FCS opponents (2008 Coastal Carolina, 2009 Eastern Illinois, 2010 Youngstown State, 2011 Indiana State, 2019 Idaho) because the talent gap might skew the stats.      

DOES THE WHITEOUT INFLUENCE THE REFS TO THROW MORE FLAGS?

Refs are human, right? A 2006 Harvard University study concluded as much after thumbing through 15 years of English Premier League data and finding referees called more penalties on the visitors – with the gap between home and away team fouls widening in larger and louder stadiums. 

Same holds true of road teams in the all-stadium Penn State Whiteout.

In five Whiteouts (2007 Notre Dame 14-97, 2010 Michigan 5-55, 2012 Ohio State 7-75, 2015 Michigan 13-117, 2018 Ohio State 10-105) the Nittany Lions’ foe was penalized for more yards than any other team that ventured into Beaver Stadium that season. No Whiteout opponent has been the least penalized team that particular season. In 2011, Alabama came the closest, committing just 3 infractions for 35 yards. What’s interesting, is that Alabama game took place entirely during the day – suggesting perhaps the heightened intensity of pure Whiteout night games pressures officials to cover the field in yellow more than when the sun’s out. But that hypothesis doesn’t hold water since the 2015 Michigan Wolverines – who also played entirely during the day – were tagged with 117 penalty yards, most in Whiteout history. 

DOES THE CROWD NOISE CREATE MORE SACKS?

On paper, this theory makes sense. The Whiteout generally tends to be the loudest date on the calendar for most teams, causing opponents haul in speakers for practice and adjust how they normally snap the ball. In 2008, Illinois employed a silent count where the Illini center ducked his head between his leg each snap to look for Juice Williams’ leg raise, then paused a breath before snapping the ball.

via GIPHY

Last season, Michigan used a similar silent system. Quarterback Shane Patterson would lift his leg, causing the lookback guy – in this case the left guard – to tap the center on the backside, signaling to snap the ball.  

via GIPHY

Without an audible snap call, usually the offensive tackles lose a split-second to the defensive edges…and that micro amount of reaction time can often turn a comfortable pocket into a muddled mess. Therefore, we should expect Penn State’s Whiteout sack numbers to dwarf totals from all over games. 

But that’s not the case.

In just two Whiteout games (2007 Notre Dame 6 sacks, 2017 Michigan 7 sacks) did Penn State get to the quarterback more than any other home game that season. Of course, in those two games, Penn State played true freshman Jimmy Clauson and Michigan backup John O’Korn who infamously told a crew of documentarians that the Nittany Lions “feared” the Wolverines before he went out and got flattened. Twice, (2010 Michigan and 2011 Alabama) Whiteout opponents skunked Penn State’s pass rushers. In the 74 other non-Whiteout games since 2007, Penn State’s only been held sackless 4 times. 

So what gives? 

Our best guess is this category is where quality of opposition neutralizes perceived home-field advantage. The biggest talent gap separating teams like Alabama, Ohio State and Michigan from oft-occurring Penn State foes like Temple, Akron and Rutgers is in the trenches. Perhaps that’s why sack totals don’t favor Whiteouts. 

Since the inception of the all-stadium Whiteout, 11 of 13 Whiteout opponents have finished with an above-.500 record – exceptions being 2007 Notre Dame and 2008 Illinois. Seven Whiteout opponents finished those seasons with double-digit wins – 2009 Iowa, 2011 Alabama, 2012-2014-2016-2018 Ohio State and 2015 Michigan. Two Whiteout opponents won the National Championship – 2011 Alabama and 2014 Ohio State.  

DOES THE EMOTION OF THE WHITEOUT INFLUENCE EXPLOSIVE PLAYS?

Considering Penn State’s fast starts offensively in 2017 and 2019, its ability to move the ball (although not capitalize as much as it should) against Ohio State in 2018, and the Nittany Lions’ impressive scripted first drive in 2016, maybe the Whiteout ignites playmakers in ways Noon BTN games don’t? Maybe this is where Urban’s 10-point assessment proves true?

“Explosive” means any offensive play totaling 20 or more yards. Things like Marcus Allen’s blocked kick, the 2012 Mike Hull blocked punt, and Derrick Williams’ returns against Notre Dame and Illinois aren’t factored in here.

Here’s the breakdown of explosive plays in the James Franklin-era Whiteouts. 

Couple ways you can look at that table. First, Trace McSorley played his best football when the lights shone brightest. That’s obvious. The Wizard’s junior and senior seasons are the only Whiteout games where Penn State’s explosive plays exceeded its usual pace. The energy of the environment made McSorley a different beast, so maybe Urban isn’t too far off with his 10-point claim when you isolate those years. Second, when you consider the explosive plays in the Whiteout is greater than, or at least in the same ballpark as, the explosive plays per game in non-Whiteouts since 2016, it does hint at an offensive boost for the home team…especially since those four defenses started 10 eventual first-round NFL Draft picks.