Trap This
On the road with trends, streaks, records, and unsettled scores in a game that’s become overrated for being “underrated.”
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“Penn State better not sleep on Illinois.”
Trust me; they won’t.
Over the course of the offseason, what began as the go-to highbrow talking point on the Nittany Lions’ 2023 slate slowly morphed into the laziest take of the litter: this Week 3 road trip’s status as a classic “trap game.” Setting aside the flaws inherent to the argument at its outset – Illinois saw terrific defensive backs selected in the first three rounds of April’s NFL draft along with offensive lynchpin RB Chase Brown; this is not a program that simply reloads – and the team’s less than intimidating 1-1 start to the season, the sheer volume of “trap game” takes alone was enough to ensure Illinois isn’t sneaking up on anybody. At some point, this game became overrated for being “underrated.”
So let’s dispense with all that clap trap (game). If this team even approaches what we and most pundits believe them to be, they won’t lose to the Illini. But since this column is all about setting the weekly narrative, here are three other storylines I’m tracking as the Nittany Lions prepare to don their (as the kids say) icy road whites for the first time in 2023…
On the Road Again
During his press conference this week, Coach Franklin didn’t miss the opportunity to have some fun with Penn State’s streak of opening conference play on the road. Why not? At this point, all you can do is laugh.
The frequency with which Penn State has been compelled to open up Big Ten play away from Happy Valley has become an object of scrutiny over the last few seasons. So much so that last year I suggested we do a piece analyzing all the data to get a handle on just how badly PSU was (or wasn’t) getting jobbed. Spoiler alert: Very badly. I was actually pretty surprised at the extent of the disparity. It’s a great piece that I’m proud of, and to be honest, I don’t think it got enough attention when published. The bulk of the credit belongs to fellow FTB-adjacent Nathan Wilmot, the resident stats guru who crunched and visualized the numbers. With State starting Big Ten play on the road once more, I asked him to update some of the key charts from that article with data from 2023.
In the first chart below, you’ll see a representation of every school’s opener by year dating back to PSU’s 1993 Big Ten debut. Home games are in orange. Road games are in blue. Any similarity to the Illinois color scheme is coincidental.
As we prepare for another round of conference expansion to kick in next year, we can now look back over three decades of Big Ten membership for the Nittany Lions and definitively claim that no other B1G school has been forced into nearly as much travel to start the conference slate. Penn State has opened conference play on the road an eye-popping 22 out of 31 seasons, by far the most in the Big Ten in terms of both raw numbers and percentage (relevant for Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland, who joined after PSU). When the Nittany Lions kick off at Illinois this weekend, they will extend a streak of eight consecutive road trips to commence their Big Ten slate, the longest such run for any team during PSU’s conference tenure.
Does any of this matter, really? I think it’s arguable. Certainly, NFL fans in the NFC North – the heart of OG Big Ten country – will tell you that hosting opponents late in the year, once the so-called “Bear Weather” has settled in, affords the home team an edge. Central PA might not experience any “lake effect,” but anyone who’s attended a game at Beaver Stadium in November can attest to the frequently inhospitable conditions (I legit thought my toes were frostbitten after watching L.J. get his 2k yards in 2002). So maybe backloading the harsh weather conditions into the homestand has some value.
Perhaps there’s also something to be said for getting to stay close to home later into the season, when injuries and other rigors of a long campaign are taking their toll. On the other hand, you’d love to have the advantage of playing for your fans, keeping to a familiar routine, and avoiding the hassles of travel when looking to get the early edge in conference play. The bigger issue, I guess, is the stark delta between Penn State and every other team in the conference. James and Pat Kraft have legitimate cause to complain, and a dive into the hard numbers of it only strengthens their case. That’s a conversation for another day, however. Right now, the Lions are packing their bags once again.
You play the hand you’re dealt, and Penn State has notched impressive wins in its last two Big Ten road openers. Let’s go for three in a row, with the third being the most relaxing.
Allar Aboard
Drew Allar is getting all of the hype and deservedly so. He faces another big test this week as he leads the Nittany Lions into hostile territory for the first time.
Sure, we all got a taste of what to expect from our baby-faced deliverer when he stepped into the fray during last year’s season opener at Purdue. Sean Clifford briefly headed into the blue tent, and Drew unflinchingly stared down the Black Out and executed the offense without missing a beat. That’s comforting, but now he’s the man. A brief relief stint is one thing; it’s a different deal entirely to be running the show with all the pressure of playoff expectations riding on every outcome. We will learn a lot about Penn State’s young phenom in Champaign.
That got me thinking about the lineage of Penn State quarterbacks who have preceded him, so I put together the table below charting the results of the first road game for every starting QB since PSU began competing in the Big Ten.
Overall, Penn State quarterbacks are 7-9 in their first road starts during the Big Ten era. While those numbers may not look great, a closer examination shows that many of the losses came during mediocre-to-bad seasons or had other mitigating circumstances. Factor in overall team strength and Drew seems well positioned to join Cliff, Captain Clark, and Kerry Collins in the win column.
A couple of notes and caveats:
• One win and one loss belong to quarterbacks who, all due respect to John Sacca and Matt Senneca, ultimately ended up as footnotes in program history.
• Kerry Collins (56-3 over Minnesota in 1994), Zack Mills (34-31 over Wisconsin in 2002), and Michael Robinson (34-29 over Northwestern in 2005) each won the first road start of their first season as full-time starters, while Matt McGloin took the 17-16 loss at Virginia in 2012.
• Christian Hackenberg won his first start away from Happy Valley, a season-opening neutral site game against Syracuse at MetLife Stadium.
Hello, Bert
I dislike the idea of a “Revenge Tour” for a number of reasons, including, but not limited to, the cautionary tale of Chase Winovich’s 2018 “tour” at Michigan and its comical ending or, closer to home, Daryll Clark’s ill-fated quest for “revenge” on Iowa at the 2009 White Out (more on that next week). Outside historic rivalries, the past between two teams, even dating back a couple of years, rarely matters all that much to players in the present, and it probably detracts a bit from each year’s unique group to define them in terms of prior events. But for tenured fans placing this campaign in the context of team history, Saturday presents a chance for some catharsis versus the Fighting Illini and their coach.
Let’s start with the obvious: The last time these two teams got together, the Lions “celebrated” Homecoming by vaporizing their slim playoff hopes along with their dignity, falling to Bielema-coached Illinois 20-18 in nine overtimes, this despite being favored by 24 points. Not to keep bringing up painful losses to Iowa, of which there are no shortage (again, more next week), but I hold fast to the unpopular opinion that this ludicrous outcome exceeds even State’s uniquely idiotic 6-4 defeat by the Hawkeyes in 2004 for utter absurdity.
You heard me. For all its sheer stupidity, that infamous meltdown came during a lost season when the offense redefined hopelessness. The stakes couldn’t have been lower. An undervalued subplot around that otherwise-pitiful contest was the campus visit by a promising young recruit named Sean Lee, who saw, yes, some futile offense, but also a stifling defense he could imagine himself playing in. The nine-OT debacle featured a supposed playoff contender ranked number seven in the nation, and as far as anyone knows, no program legends were inspired to enroll based on suffering through it.
Either way, when you’re battling over whether an outcome is only the second most ridiculous in program history, you’ve already lost the war. A decidedly limited team comes into your building, plays nine overtimes, scores 20 points, and wins by lining up eight offensive lineman and running down your throat like it’s a Penn-Lehigh game from 1938, there are going to be some demons worth exorcising.
Looking for a more obscure deep cut than an outlandish result that’s been endlessly mocked by every college football writer and fan in America? Try this on for size.
The first time Penn State faced off against Bret Bielema, or “Bert” for the BSD OGs in the audience, the Nittany Lions suffered a 13-3 loss to Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium, and Joe Paterno suffered a broken leg after a sideline collision with tight end Andrew Quarless (some buddies witnessed Quarless being relentlessly clowned by a few teammates late that night at the College Ave McDonald’s – “Hey, everybody! This guy broke Joe’s leg!”). JoePa’s injury dominated the headlines, but I’ll also always remember that game for the Badgers clowning around to end the first half, exploiting a loophole in the newly-implemented clock rules on kickoffs that didn’t survive to see a second season.
Bielema did, however, get Paterno’s blood boiling near halftime when the Badgers tried to run out the last 23 seconds of the half by intentionally going offsides on two straight kickoff attempts to take advantage of a new rule that starts the clock when the ball is kicked.
Paterno stormed onto the field to complain to officials, then emphatically waved off a television reporter as he headed to the locker room.
So whether by caveman ball or getting cute with an ill-advised rule change, two of Bert’s three career wins versus the Nittany Lions have come with the aid of some gimmicky nonsense. If you need to add a little extra juice to going 1-0 this week, there you have it.
I love the way this year’s schedule sets up for Penn State to do big things. Drew Allar got his first start against a manageable Power 5 opponent in the familiar confines of Beaver Stadium, but also with the bright lights of prime-time national television. The entire squad then got to tune up last week versus Delaware, and now they take their first road trip against a solid opponent before the season’s first inflection point at the White Out.
Three for the Road:
- What happens when you mix the unparalleled reach and enthusiasm of the Penn State alumni network and the enduringly curious appeal of campus legend Mike the Mailman with the preferred salty snack of Penn State Athletics? You get the runaway winner of the Utz Ultimate Fan Contest. Congrats to my friend the legend.
- If you’ve not made FTB’s weekly film study with Coach Codutti on YouTube part of your weekly in-season ritual, you need to Like, Subscribe, and smash the Notification Bell to change that immediately. This week’s edition was particularly illuminating and touches on a lingering question from the first two weeks of play: Where are the explosive plays in Penn State’s rushing attack? Lots of good info and things to watch for this weekend, especially the receivers’ role in blocking downfield. Check it out before Big Noon!
- Apropos of nothing, but a stat I love to tout that doesn’t get the attention it deserves from Penn State’s administration or fans: According to notoriously-credible source Wikipedia, the Nittany Lions enter this weekend with 922 program wins. This is a big deal. Only eight FBS programs (plus Yale) can claim over 900 victories, with seventh-place PSU holding a 10-game advantage over Nebraska’s 912 wins. Once teams officially join their new conferences next season, you’ll have to scan all the way down the all-time wins list to current number 20 Clemson (which could conceivably pass Auburn this year) to find an FBS team, save Notre Dame, that isn’t part of the Big Ten or SEC.
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