The Dollars and Sense of Jayson Oweh’s Next Move

Why What Seems Like a Foregone Conclusion Isn’t Necessarily a No-Brainer Decision

General consensus is Penn State Defensive End Jayson Oweh is a goner.

In fact, there’s a high probability that by the time you actually read this Oweh will have Notes App’d his goodbye to Penn State using standard Early Declaration Bingo Card buzz-phrases like “difficult decision”, “after praying on it”, “thank my coaches”, and “Nittany Nation.”

Therefore, we’re not predicting whether or not Oweh WILL take his talents to Sundays and play for a paycheck next September, rather we’re analyzing if he SHOULD. 

A genetic lottery winner blessed with unique length and uncanny speed for a 250-pounder, Oweh entered the abbreviated 2020 season with zero career starts and a ton of questions to answer…namely, are we sure he can play football?

To a degree, Oweh silenced the doubters. If anything, the junior proved he’s capable of being a every-down defender in the NFL and not just a 3rd-down pass rush specialist. As a run-stopper Oweh was good-to-great this season – able to shed blockers, track down ball carriers from the backside, and negate Run After Contact yardage…as you’ll see in his “Best Of…” montage here:

According to PFF, Oweh was Penn State’s highest-graded run defender in 2020, finishing 30 points higher than his 2019 grade (I legit have no clue what goes into these grades but going from 59.5 to 89.8 on a 0-100 scale seems significant.) As a pass rusher, Oweh posted comparable PFF grades in 2019 (81.8) and 2020 (80.3). This season, Oweh applied QB Pressure on 20 dropbacks, hitting the passer on five of those throws. Only Shaka Toney (23 pressures) harassed opposing QB’s more…and he played 2.5 more games than Oweh. 

But…and this is a BIG BUT…Oweh failed to register a sack in 2020. 

For context, in the 21st Century no defensive end selected in the first round of the NFL Draft had 0 sacks in their final season of college ball. Even Ohio State’s Nick Bosa had 4 sacks despite opting out after 3 games in 2018. In the last two NFL Drafts, the 8 edge rushers picked in the first round averaged 9.93 sacks during their final year on scholarship. 

This is the statistical Elephant In The Room when it comes to Oweh – a concerning lack of production NFL teams will have to weigh against a blazing fast 40, a jump-out-the-gym vertical and whatever eye-popping marks Oweh posts in front of old men wearing polos. 

Presumably because Oweh failed to drop a quarterback this season, a few (not all, but a few) credible Mock Drafts recently lowered Oweh to an early- to mid-2nd Round pick. If those mock projections materialize and Oweh is a Day 2 pick then it’d be in his best financial interest to come back to school. 

Let us explain:

Fans tend to forget the NFL is not the NBA – a league where it’s advantageous for college players to turn professional as soon as possible so that they can burn through low-paying, team-friendly rookie contracts. In the NBA, even role players can expect to earn 500 to 1,000 percent raises once their initial contract expires (Lakers bench player Kyle Kuzma is a great recent example after recently signing a $39 million extension that kicks in when his 4-year, $8.1 million rookie deal ends in 6 months.)

In the NFL – a brutal, physically taxing sport where a tight Salary Cap keeps clubs looking for cheaper, younger replacements — only the ELITE earn exponentially more on second deals…which makes it imperative for guys like Oweh to not leave money on the table by coming out early.

For the sake of this argument, let’s say Oweh leaves Penn State and gets drafted No. 37 overall – the spot Yetur Gross-Matos (another early leaver) got drafted last year. Picked by the Carolina Panthers, Gross-Matos signed a 4-year, $8.2 million contact — $4.5 million guaranteed. Not bad, eh?

BUUUUT…let’s say Oweh – who is still going to be the same blessed physical anomaly at age 23 that he is at age 22 – records 10 sacks in 2021. We’d argue that attainable level of production (Gross-Matos had 9.5 sacks in 2019, so 10 sacks isn’t an outlandish total) coupled with Oweh’s predicted combine numbers catapults the then-senior into the Top 10…but just to be safe, let’s settle on Top 15. 

The Denver Broncos picked Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy No. 15 overall in 2020. He signed a 4-year, $15.2 million contact – ALL OF IT GUARANTEED. Jeudy received his signing bonus upfront, meaning he’ll make $9.2 million total this season. Gross-Matos won’t make $9.2 million total until his 5th year in the NFL…at the EARLIEST. 

Yeah, but what if Oweh suffers a catastrophic career-ending injury next year at Penn State and loses out on an NFL payday altogether?

First off, heaven forbid. Not trying to put that out in the universe, at all. Still, the probability of that happening is the same whether Oweh is playing college football or pro football.  And given his earning potential, I can’t imagine it would be too difficult for Oweh to find a loss-of-value insurance policy that would pay the guaranteed contract of an NFL 2nd Rounder, if not more…so whether Oweh got seriously hurt playing for Penn State or the Packers, he’d be in a similar financial state. 

OK, but the sooner Oweh enters the NFL the quicker he’ll sign a second deal for more money. 

YES…if he’s productive. That’s a big IF. Players drafted in the NFL’s 2nd Round stay under team control for four seasons…meaning the earliest Oweh could become an Unrestricted Free Agent and really cash in would be 2026. 

The most recent group of 2nd Round picks able to test free agency were those taken in 2016. In that draft,  three edge rushers were selected in the 2nd Round: Emmanuel Ogbah (No. 32 overall…technically this is a 1st Round slot, but wasn’t this year because of  Deflategate), Noah Spence (39th Overall) and Jihad Ward (44th Overall). 

Here are those players’ career earnings (taken from www.overthecap.com):

OGBAH

SPENCE

WARD

As you can see, of the three players, Ogbah was the only to sign a deal worth more than his original rookie contract. 

Spence – who entered the 2016 NFL Draft with a year of college eligibility remaining — was waived by Tampa Bay prior to the 3rd year of his 4-year rookie deal. Washington picked him up three weeks later, but cut him in November 2019. Spence finished that season with the Saints. His football future is completely uncertain following an ACL tear suffered while training in May 2020. 

Ward battled injuries as a rookie and was traded to the Dallas Cowboys following his second year in the league. On Sept. 1, 2018, the Cowboys waived Ward during final cuts. Ward split time on the Colts practice squad and active roster for 1.5 seasons. Prior to the 2020 season, Ward signed a 1-year, $1 million contract with the Baltimore Ravens. 

The NFL is cruel, man. Nothing is guaranteed…well, nothing is guaranteed EXCEPT the FULL contracts of at least the Top 22 1st Round picks since 2018. Therefore, that should be Oweh’s line of demarcation. If NFL teams and the Draft Advisory Board say he’s a surefire 1st Rounder, go get paid. But if  those same projectors peg him anywhere else, show some patience, come back and sack someone, THEN go get paid.