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From Tuscaloosa to Los Angeles to Pittsburgh and all points in between, now is the time when every college football fanbase throws probability out the window, plugs their collective ears from listening to the voices of reason, and mentally crafts a path to the College Football Playoff…no matter how absurd or unlikely the route. Of course, the same applies in State College. The ho-hum mood that hung over Nittany Lions loyalists for the summer months has given way to unbridled optimism following the cliché grab-bag of media day and the release of that one clip where Kaytron Allen snatches Mehki Flowers’ soul (poor guy). For now, it’s OK to close your eyes and dream of spending early January fighting the traffic hellscape that is Inglewood, California at 4 pm on a Monday. Ahh, glorious isn’t it?
(Snaps Fingers)
Unfortunately, today’s ABC entry isn’t tailored for those with their head in the clouds. No, it’s rooted in reality and a bunch of math. Like we did around this time last year, we used our proprietary algorithm to calculate the win probability and a consensus final score of Penn State’s 12 regular season contests in 2022.
Media Days have come and gone. The NFL preseason is underway. Real, honest-to-goodness football is oh so close, and so is a big year for James Franklin and Penn State.
The Nittany Lions have one of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football history, some explosive young athletes in the backfield, a reshuffled offensive line that will probably be the subject of only four or five of these columns this fall, an intriguing collection of both returning and new talent along the defensive line, and what could be one of the best secondaries they’ve ever had.
They should also have a collective chip on their shoulders the size of Landon Tengwall after consecutive seasons of five or more losses. How and why Penn State came up so curiously and consistently short has already been written to death. Today, we will examine how Franklin and his team can end that surprising and sobering stretch of mediocrity.
With apologies to the famed 21st century philosopher William Martin Joel, it’s a matter of trust.