Sunday Column: Shrews’ Debut Opened Some Eyes – But What Will He Do Now That They’re Looking?

If you’re of the belief that Micah Shrewsberry’s first season as Penn State’s head basketball coach, which drew to a close with Friday’s loss to Purdue in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, was an indication that the Nittany Lions have brighter hoops days ahead, there are plenty of signs you can point to.

You might want to give it just one more year, though.

Though it’s true that Penn State will, once again, not be participating in the NCAA Tournament, or even the NIT, it was still hard to be unimpressed by the body of work Shrewsberry and his new staff put together, particularly with a roster that was, by no fault of their own, rather hastily assembled less than one year ago.

With six returning players – only four of which saw more than two minutes per game last season – and five transfers, Penn State won 14 games, including nine against Big Ten opponents. There were some ugly nights, to be sure – the lopsided loss at UMass in November, the ugly late-season home defeat to Nebraska (that didn’t look QUITE as bad when the Cornhuskers then won at Ohio State and Wisconsin) – and a few games where Shrewsberry wishes he had one or two possessions back. And the offense, which produced 64.6 points per game (dead last in the conference) managed to have at least a few ugly moments most nights.

But it is the fact that the offense was so mediocre that made the wins and the almost-wins that much more impressive, and that is perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the season itself. If the Nittany Lions can find even just a little more offense, and maintain the defensive discipline and grit and their belief in both themselves and their coaches that they displayed this season, well …

There’s the old, familiar trap, though, the one that Penn State fans have fallen into with previous changes in leadership. A new coach comes in, without a lot of returning talent at his disposal, and shows some promise, some things to build on. But the build never comes. Or even when it does – Ed DeChellis leading the Nittany Lions to the 2011 tournament, Pat Chambers guiding the 2020 squad to a fifth-place league finish – it isn’t sustainable.

If you look at Shrewsberry’s first season compared to the debut seasons of those two coaches, the new guy comes out ahead pretty easily. DeChellis went 9-19 and 3-13 in 2003-04 and made a prompt exit from the conference tournament. Chambers, taking the reins of a team that lost four senior starters from the 2011 squad, was 12-20 and 4-14 in his first year, also losing in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.

In retrospect, though, it was the second season for both coaches that foretold the struggles they would both have. DeChellis and the Nittany Lions fell to 7-23 and 1-15 the following year; Chambers and his second team went 10-21 and 2-16. Neither won a conference tournament game.

Of course, coaches should be given some time to recruit and incorporate their own players. That typically happens more in year 2 as, during the first season, coaches often have little choice but to retain as many decent players as they can from the previous regime. Shrewsberry should have two advantages over his predecessors in this regard. One, most of his roster turned over already last spring – Penn State has the lack of transparency it showed its players regarding the decision to terminate Chambers to thank for that – and two, the transfer portal, now a necessary tool for essentially every program, will provide Shrewsberry and his staff further opportunity to build on a core that will include Jalen Pickett, Sam Sessoms, and Seth Lundy, plus blue-chip freshmen Jameel Brown and Kebba Njie.

There’s recent precedent for big sophomore jumps at this level of basketball. Shrewsberry’s old boss, Matt Painter, won nine games in his first year at Purdue and 22 in his second year. Juwan Howard took Michigan from 10-10 in league play to 14-3. Fran McCaffery took Iowa from four conference wins to eight, then five straight seasons of .500 or better conference finishes. All three programs enjoyed advantages in tradition and resources that Penn State doesn’t, but that doesn’t make their level of relative progress unattainable.

If Shrewsberry and the Nittany Lions backslide next season, or even finish with a similar record to this year’s, it doesn’t necessarily mean the bus isn’t moving in the right direction, but the pessimistic section of the blue and white chorus – usually louder and larger than its optimistic counterpart – will sing the same old songs. And let’s be honest — they’ll have history on their side.

If, on the other hand, Shrewsberry is able to turn even two or three of the seven(!) 6-point conference losses Penn State suffered into wins next year, and the Nittany Lions are able to play a full non-conference schedule and pick up a few more overall wins, you’re looking at a situation where two Big Ten tournament wins will likely be enough to punch a dance ticket – that is, if Penn State hasn’t already locked one up by then.

Maybe you saw enough this season, with the current makeup of the roster, to believe that the latter scenario – or perhaps even more enticing possibilities – could become reality with just a few changes. Maybe you didn’t see enough to be convinced that Shrewsberry isn’t headed down the same frustrating path well-worn by his predecessors. Either way, you should know if you were right in about a year.