Sunday Column: Rhoades Proves to be a Capable and Adaptable Coach, But Direction of Program Remains Unclear

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Year One of the Mike Rhoades Era at Penn State wrapped up on Thursday in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament, when a potentially game-winning 3-pointer by Puff Johnson failed to connect, leaving the Nittany Lions two points short of an Indiana team they’d beaten twice during the regular season. The loss left Penn State at 16-17 for the year, with 10 of those victories coming against conference opponents.

In the most basic sense, it was a step back from the previous season, when the Micah Shrewsberry- and Jalen Pickett-led Nittany Lions caught fire down the stretch and advanced to the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. In the more nuanced and perhaps more important senses, it was an encouraging start to the next chapter of program history after Shrewsberry had metaphorically set fire to the previous chapter when he bolted for Notre Dame shortly after the season.

Rhoades was left with just three returning scholarship players — Kanye Clary, Demetrius Lilley and Jameel Brown — who had accounted for 5% of the team’s minutes played and 5% of its scoring in 2022-23. Those players totaled 17% of the minutes and 22% of the scoring this season, numbers that dropped significantly when Clary left/was shown the door in February (more on this in a bit). Shrewsberry also took the entirety of Penn State’s Class of 2023 with him, leaving the transfer portal as Rhoades’ lone option to fill out the roster, on incredibly short notice.

To no one’s surprise, the Nittany Lions played pretty much exactly like a team that had been hastily assembled from a group of spare parts. There was the nightmare weekend in Kissimmee, where Penn State allowed nearly 90 points per game in an 0-3 performance in the ESPN Events Classic, followed by a humbling home defeat to Bucknell a few days later. There was the impressive stretch at the end of January when Penn State defeated three straight Big Ten opponents by double digits. There were wins in games the Lions had no business winning, like the ridiculous late comeback over Illinois in Rec Hall, and losses in games they had no business losing, like the 23-point blown lead at Minnesota.

It’s hard to say the team didn’t get better from November to March. It’s also hard not to wonder if it will matter; the bulk of the roster has exhausted its eligibility and it’s not a given that those with remaining eligibility won’t at least consider another transfer. There is certainly a chance that Rhoades could build on a core of Ace Baldwin, Zach Hicks, Nick Kern, D’Marco Dunn and a recruiting class currently ranked (checks notes) 11th in the Big Ten by On3; there’s arguably just as good of a chance that one or more of those core players leave and that Rhoades can’t find the transfer portal pieces to adequately replace them.

Of course, Rhoades was going to be watched more closely this season by Penn State fans for what he did with the players he had rather than who exactly those players were. And most of the signs there were encouraging. Though the overall defensive numbers (73.4 points allowed per game and 45.2% shooting allowed) were nowhere near where he would want them, the Nittany Lions did create havoc at that end of the floor, finishing first in the Big Ten in steals and turnover margin, and their team defense, while still porous (especially when Qudus Wahab got in foul trouble), improved as the season went on. The Nittany Lions’ 3-point shooting was pretty dismal (33.4%) all year and will need to be addressed from both a personnel and technique standpoint moving forward, but they still found a way to generate the team’s highest scoring average since 2020 (75.1 ppg), which is a big credit to Rhoades and his staff when you consider the team had very few consistent scorers.

There were rumblings of culture problems, which tend to be louder when games are lost than when they are won, and Clary’s departure, depending on how things shake out, could wind up as an important line that Rhoades drew in the sand or a missed opportunity for both player and coach. That Penn State arguably played its best basketball when it was without its leading scorer is a credit to Rhoades and the other players but also leaves you wondering why it couldn’t have worked just as well with Clary.

Ultimately, a near-.500 season in one of the tougher conferences in the nation is nothing to sneeze at, especially given Penn State’s hardwood history. It proved that Rhoades’ aggressive style could work in a league still dominated by half-court sets and that players who starred in other leagues could succeed in the Big Ten. At the same time, the Nittany Lions’ 11th-place finish showed just how steep the, ahem, climb will be moving forward for Rhoades and an athletic department that is still trying to decide exactly how much it wants to invest in a sport that hasn’t yielded many returns for the school. This winter, Rhoades and his players showed that Penn State could have done a lot worse with Shrewsberry’s replacement. One year in, how much better he can or will be is still hard to predict.