Sunday Column: Lather, Retch, Repeat – Lions come up short in yet another barometer game
The easy column, the prudent column, would be to detail another agonizing loss by Penn State at the hands of its most hated rival and then, at the end, say that this year, it doesn’t really matter in the big picture because the path to the playoff is still clear.
(Dr. Evil voice) Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
This loss, agonizing in its own unique way even in a series of agonizing losses, matters very much because it represents the ceiling for the program under James Franklin. The wins, the recruiting rankings, the semi-consistent visits to the top 10, the massive White Outs—all important. All hard-earned. So too are the overdue facility upgrades and the about-face a school that liked to think it was above paying players did on the NIL front.
And yet, no matter how many other Big Ten teams they mow down, the Lions just keep bumping their heads against one opponent. The players change, the coordinators change (even more frequently), the result remains the same—crashing against the ceiling.
Or, put another way: 0-1. 0-1. 0-1. 0-1. 0-1. 0-1. 0-1. 0-1.
And it matters because, for a time, even when the Nittany Lions followed that breathtaking win in 2016 with consecutive one-point losses to Ohio State in 2017 and 2018, you could fairly easily make the case that there was still a talent gap between the two programs. Sure, Penn State had a Barkley here or a Parsons there, but the Buckeyes were stronger and deeper across the board, particularly along the lines.
That gap, despite the NIL gulf that continues to separate Ohio State from most of the rest of the world, has been sufficiently closed. It was hard to look at Saturday and come away thinking the Nittany Lions didn’t have the better team, or at the very least one equal to the Buckeyes in overall talent. Despite the mind-boggling lack of discipline (seriously, Elliot Washington?) and failure to convert a promising early drive and a promising late drive into touchdowns instead of field goals, and despite allowing medium-level chunk plays to the Buckeyes all game long, Penn State was still very much in position to at least tie things up with about seven minutes remaining following a 33-yard gallop by Tyler Warren to the Ohio State 3.
The Nittany Lions had four chances to go 3 yards and tie the game. They failed on all four tries.
A few minutes later, the Buckeyes needed 3 yards to put the game on ice. Quarterback Will Howard picked up 7 yards on a keeper and probably could have gotten more. Instead, he slid to run out the clock, and another chance—maybe the best one yet—for Penn State to beat its nemesis was gone. And though the talent arguably wasn’t the difference this time, there was one similarity in this defeat that was a thread through so many others.
Penn State did not rise to meet the moment.
Yeah, Abdul Carter did what you hoped he would do against a left guard disguised as a left tackle. Warren, on the few occasions he was able to get touches, was the stud he’s been all year. Drew Allar’s pick was one of the best passes he’s thrown all season and was not remotely his fault, and he probably squeezed more yards out of most drives—mostly with his legs—than a lot of quarterbacks would have given the lack of open receivers and a persistent Buckeye pass rush. Andy Kotelnicki dialed up a few gems, as well as a few fancy-looking plays that didn’t do much. Zion Tracy gave his team the perfect start with a gorgeous pick six.
But when the biggest moments came, it was Ohio State making the plays and Penn State coming up short. As it was, is now, and ever shall be, world without end. The Nittany Lions ran 5 plays from inside the Buckeyes’ 5-yard line across two drives, and did not come away with a single point on those occasions. That sentence would be mind-blowing if it were any other rivalry, but it’s the kind of wild stat that’s become all too common for Penn State. Put the Nittany Lions up against just about anyone in the nation, and they’re going to show you a bunch of future NFL guys making NFL plays. Put them up against Ohio State, and it’s like they all started playing football three weeks ago. The disconnect between the potential of any given Penn State squad and the output against the Buckeyes is startling and inexplicable, and if Franklin has any answers, we haven’t seen them yet. NIL matters. Facilities matter. Runways long enough to fly you out of your home airport (presumably) matter. But all that stuff merely serves to get you to the table. Once there, you still have to eat, and the Nittany Lions are continuing to bite off more than they can chew when the main course arrives. If they don’t spit up all over themselves.
So, yeah, this loss matters. And to be fair, the game probably meant more to the Buckeyes, who were likely on the outside of the playoff chase looking in with two losses, than the Nittany Lions, who are in great position to run the table and prove that the gutsy, find-a-way team we saw in Pasadena and Madison is one worth remembering. The ultimate goal—the playoff, a chance at the natty—is still within reach, which was Franklin’s immediate battle cry following the game.
After this one, though, do you still even care?
I agree with much of what you’ve said. But there is still a discernible talent gap between the two teams. If you look at the On3 composite industry rankings (averaging the four major services) over the past five years (2020 through 2025, you see that OSU finished among the top five teams ever year, collecting 15 composite 5-star players over this time period. Penn State, conversely, never finished higher than 7th (2022) and the other years was ranked 15, 14, 18, and 14, collecting just three 5-star players (all in 2022) over that same stretch. You can stretch back deeper into the past and find the very same persistent recruiting gap exists. OSU’s roster is consistently deeper and more talented than Penn State’s. At no position is this more glaringly apparent than wide receiver. How we could bring in a 5-star QB talent like Allar and miserably fail to match him with quality WRs is hugely befuddling and disappointing.