Sunday Column: How ‘Déjà Vu All Over Again’ Can Turn Out Differently For Penn State and its New Offensive Coordinator
James Franklin got his guy. He’d had his eye on this Big 12 offensive coordinator for quite some time and had admired his work at multiple programs. Penn State’s head coach had decided his own offense needed a change, and this coach, Franklin decided, had the experience directing potent, explosive offenses that would translate to helping shove the Nittany Lions over that steep, elusive mountain peak separating good from great. The hire was widely praised and another example of Franklin’s enduring ability to recruit not only top players but sought-after coaches as well.
That guy, of course, was Mike Yurcich.
Three years later, Franklin made another change, and the Big 12 OC this time around is Andy Kotelnicki, from Kansas by way of Buffalo and the University of Mary, which is a real school in Division II. Once again, the credentials are impressive. Once again, the stakes are high, and once again, there is moldable talent in the barn, even if it appears the offensive line is headed for yet another rebuild.
Kotelnicki’s task is the same that faced Yurcich and Kirk Ciarrocca and Ricky Rahne and Joe Moorhead and John Donovan, only it’s now more pronounced after Yurcich’s disappointing tenure: Direct offenses that have the ability to move the ball and score points against anyone on the schedule,[italics]including[italics/] the teams that have most confounded Franklin since he joined the Big Ten in 2014.
How exactly will he do it? There are a number of ways, and just because none of those previously mentioned predecessors could do it consistently doesn’t mean Kotelnicki can’t. Rather than try to project how what he’s done in conferences with far less defensive talent (more on this in a bit) will transfer to how he takes on the defenses of the Big Ten or how what he’s done with three-star recruits will transfer to what he does with high four- and five-star guys at Penn State, it might be more instructive to look across the practice field and see what lessons Kotelnicki might glean from what Manny Diaz and Penn State’s defense did this season.
LESSON 1: PROTECT THE QUARTERBACK
Penn State led FBS with 48 sacks this season, putting teams behind schedule and well behind the sticks and greatly reducing the likelihood of big plays allowed downfield. Diaz did it with creative blitzing but many of those sacks came from the speed and power of the Nittany Lions’ front four.
Being able to avoid sacks is a shared offensive trait: Some of the responsibility falls on the line, some on the quarterback, a bit on the receivers, and some on the play-caller’s ability to not only keep the offense on schedule but have passing plays that don’t take two years to develop. Yurcich’s Lions and Kotelnicki’s Jayhawks were both good at avoiding sacks this season, both tied for 20th in the nation at 1.25 allowed per game. But Kansas also finished in the top 20 in this category in 2021 and 2022, while Penn State ranked 94 and T-40 in those seasons.
LESSON 2: RUN THE BALL
The Nittany Lions’ 48 sacks were a big reason (since the college game, insanely, continues to include sacks in rushing totals instead of passing totals) they finished second in FBS in rushing defense, but other reasons included their overall depth and athleticism, ability to swarm to the ball, and the continued growth of linebackers Curtis Jacobs, Abdul Carter and Kobe King.
You need a balanced offense to win at a high level, and, yes, it was more often the passing attack that let the Nittany Lions down this season, but a solid, consistent and/or dynamic running game puts the quarterback in positive 2nd and 3rd-down situations and reduces the number of third down situations they have to face at all.
Both Kotelnicki and Yurcich took over running attacks that were not great during their initial seasons in 2021 (Kansas was 88th, Penn State 118) and slowly built them up; the Nittany Lions climbed to 44th last year and 26th this year, at 186.7, while the Jayhawks progressed to 38th in the country in 2022 and 8th this season, with 211.3 yards per game.
LESSON 3: STAY ON THE FIELD
Third-down defense was an area in which Penn State was, at least compared to its performance elsewhere across the board, not [italics]as[italics/] excellent as it was in other categories, but it was still good for second in the Big Ten and ninth in the nation, despite allowing 12 combined conversions on 29 chances in the Ohio State and Michigan losses.
This is perhaps the most pronounced difference between Kotelnicki’s units at Kansas and Yurcich’s at Penn State. After 2021, when Kansas finished 95th and Penn State 75th in offensive third-down conversions, the Jayhawks were 8th last year and 13th this year, where the Lions were 82nd and 59th, respectively.
From short-yardage hairball coughs to deep drops that seemed doomed from the start, Penn State found itself in all sorts of third-down messes under Yurcich against both elite and mediocre opposition, and there was blame to go around. If Kotelnicki can get this particular aspect cleaned up, and fast, it’ll give the Nittany Lions more opportunities for the explosive plays they couldn’t find this season and more scoring chances against the toughest defenses. Which leads us to …
LESSON 4 (NOT REALLY A LESSON, BUT A CAVEAT)
It must be pointed out here that Big 12 defenses are typically not made of the strongest stuff, and that the Big Ten, even for its lack of firepower outside of the Big Three, had some relatively stalwart defenses this season. The Nittany Lions faced three top-10 defenses (by yardage) and their 11 FBS opponents had an average collective finish of 47 in that category. Kansas, meanwhile, faced three bottom-20 defenses (including Prime Time Colorado at 126) in 2023 and its 11 FBS opponents had an average finish of 82 in yardage allowed.
So Kotelnicki won’t be going against Big 12 defensive talent, even with a few new California opponents on the schedule next fall. But he will be coaching with significantly more offensive talent, at least on paper, than he had in any season in Lawrence, or anywhere he’s coached.
None of this is to say you shouldn’t be excited about Kotelnicki. Under longtime boss Lance Leipold, he has a proven track record of making his group better year after year, a trait not unlike that possessed by Moorhead when he took over at Penn State in 2016. And, unlike Yurcich, he had a hand in a couple of big upsets, this fall’s win over No. 6 Oklahoma and last year’s win over No. 18 Oklahoma State. But it’s also a reminder that the Big Ten is quite often home to defenses that will make it very difficult to check the boxes an offense needs to check to be consistently successful. And only one of them resides in the Lasch Building.
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