Sunday Column: Easier Access to Playoff Will Only Lead to Pain if Lions Can’t Fix Big-Game Issues

As 2024 rapidly approaches, what Penn State fans are looking forward to the most isn’t the Peach Bowl or even what Andy Kotelnicki might be able to do with the offense next season.

It’s that the college football playoff will be expanding next season, and for a program that has found itself in the top 12 in five of the last eight years but never in the four-team playoff, that is a change that can’t come quickly enough. The larger field will provide opportunities for a new kind of relevancy for several teams, and if recent form holds and the transfer portal is abundant, the Nittany Lions stand a very good chance of being one of them.

But if Penn State isn’t able to address the reasons it hasn’t yet cracked that top four under James Franklin, it’s hard to imagine any potential playoff game wouldn’t deliver the same nauseating feeling that has been brought on by its failures in marquee matchups.

Put another way, the Nittany Lions could easily find themselves in the club they’ve been itching to join for years now. But will they prove that they belong there?

What’s tripped up Penn State in recent big-game letdowns, including losses to Michigan and Ohio State this fall, has varied from season to season. Sometimes the difference has been a few plays, sometimes it’s seemed like the game was over before the second half began. But there have been a few fairly consistent themes in those losses, all of which have prevented the Lions from making the jump from good to great and would make beating a playoff opponent from any conference a tall measure. In no particular order …

Deficit at scrimmage

Of all the ways the NCAA sanctions of 2012 damaged the program, the destruction of the depth and talent on the offensive line was the worst, and it’s a hole it seems like the Nittany Lions have been perpetually climbing out of ever since. In a decade under Franklin and three offensive line coaches, they’ve had lines that have ranged from debilitating to solid, but never dominant. Even some of their better lines, including the 2023 group that featured All-American tackle Olu Fashanu, got the job done against most teams on the schedule but struggled against the better athletes along Michigan and Ohio State’s respective defensive fronts.

Now, expecting Penn State, or any program, to consistently put together a line that’s going to blow the Buckeyes and Wolverines off the ball is simply not realistic. But to have a chance to beat those teams, or the majority of foes they’d see in a playoff game, the offensive line needs to at least play the guys across it to a draw. Penn State hasn’t had that yet and needs Phil Trautwein to continue developing players, and the entire staff to recruit more talent he can develop.

Defensively, Penn State’s lines have been arguably the best weapon on the team, helping the Nittany Lions rank among the nation’s leaders in sacks and at times, simply taking over games. But again, against the toughest opponents, those defensive lines have been neutralized, and occasionally even overpowered. Penn State should remain in a better spot here even with the losses of Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, but cannot afford any sort of dropoff.

Coaching

Generally speaking, Penn State had enjoyed enough of an athletic advantage across the board at almost every position against the bulk of the teams on its schedule that the schemes and the playcalling hasn’t had to be superb, only sufficient, to deliver wins. But against the elite squads, teams with just as much or more talent, the game plans have faltered, and the Nittany Lions’ coordinators have been a step or more behind their Ohio State and Michigan counterparts, particularly in the second halves of those contests. Kotelnicki and whoever replaces Manny Diaz will have a chance to reverse that trend moving forward, but this has been an underrated area for improvement.

Timely (big) plays

At some point in the not-so-distant future, the Nittany Lions might have finally put together a team that truly has elite talent at every position. But even then, it won’t be enough to win the biggest games the sport has to offer unless some of those talented players come up with outstanding plays at critical junctures.

Think about it: Other than Marcus Allen’s field goal block against Ohio State in 2016, when was the last time a Penn State player made a momentum-shifting play at a significant moment in one of the biggest games of the season? Curtis Jacobs appeared to have made such a play this October in Columbus when he took a fumble to the house, only to have it negated thanks to a penalty.

Contrast that with the second-half performance J.T. Tuimoloau had for Ohio State in the 2022 win in Beaver Stadium in what was an otherwise winnable game for the Nittany Lions. Or the touchdown pass from Cade McNamara to Erick All in 2021, when it looked like Penn State finally had Michigan on the ropes. Yes, Jahan Dotson had some all-time plays against the Buckeyes in 2020 and Saquon Barkley’s opening kickoff to the house in 2017 was electric, but when it comes to key plays late in a one-score game, the Nittany Lions have simply not delivered when it has counted. Not against the best in the conference, at least.

Penn State’s next opponent, at first glance, is dressed like a playoff team, and likely would have been in the field had the expansion started this year. But Ole Miss had its own problems with elite opposition, losing handily to Alabama and Georgia for the only two blemishes on its schedule. And there are just enough opt-outs, at least on the Penn State side, in this game that there will be a substantial “What if” factor no matter which team wins.

Would a victory against Lane Kiffin’s Rebels be a nice way to end the season and a feather in a cap for a dominant Penn State defense? Absolutely. Would it erase the reputation the Lions have had for coming up short in games against playoff-caliber opponents? Not likely. Will Penn State get a chance to do that against a team not named Michigan or Ohio State next year, though, is the real question. And that is reason enough for excitement — and more than a little trepidation—as we turn the page to another year and another season and a new chapter in college football.