Sunday Column: Ahead Of Their Time — 2022 Lions Forged a Repeatable Playoff Path…Once The Party Becomes Less Exclusive

Timing is everything — on the football field, where a blitz pickup by a running back can mean the difference between a long touchdown pass and a concussed quarterback, or in life, where the person you go on to spend 75 years with might not have given you a second glance at the bar if she hadn’t just been dumped by her boyfriend.

Penn State’s timing, while not exactly ideal in the fourth quarter against Ohio State this fall, could wind up being not that bad at all in future seasons — placing them “On The List” instead of arguing with the CFP bouncer outside the velvet ropes. In other words, yes, it would have been nice for the Nittany Lions if the decision to expand the playoff field from four teams to 12 had taken effect this month instead of 2024, as they would have been comfortably in the field.

As it stands, their chances of securing a spot in the top 12 going forward seem as good as most for several reasons, though the line will likely remain quite slim and subject to movement.

The two chief weapons Penn State has to stake regular playoff claims are — you might want to bite down on something — its two greatest nemeses. That’s right, continued monster, top-5 seasons for Michigan and Ohio State are of great benefit to the Nittany Lions, if they are able to elbow their way into the top 5 themselves but especially if they’re not.

This season perfectly illustrated the path to the top-12 for Penn State: You can lose to both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines and still (arguably in most years) be among the Top 10 in the nation, provided you take care of the rest of your foes on an increasingly ho-hum conference schedule. Two losses are a lot for a playoff résumé, but if they’re both to teams also in that field, they’re considerably more forgivable. And should Penn State, you know, ever actually beat one of those teams, then maybe that 8 or 9 seed becomes a 3 or 4 seed.

Now, there is an argument to be made, and not a bad one, that the chips won’t fall exactly as they have this year in the Big Ten and on a national scale every year. The SEC is relatively down but likely won’t be for long. The traditional second-tier Big Ten squads (Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin) fell off this fall, and although relative upstarts like Purdue and Illinois don’t seem in any great rush to take their place, things can and will change in the conference quickly.

And let’s not forget about the suntanned elephant that might not be in the room yet but has a plane ticket to the East Coast in its, um, trunk.

USC was thumped by Utah on Friday night, but the Trojans blossomed more rapidly in their first season under Lincoln Riley this autumn than many might have expected and, given his track record of delivering dynamic offensive play coupled with the school’s substantial recruiting advantages, it’s not a stretch to see the Trojans being regular visitors to an expanded playoff field themselves. It’s likely that the 12-team field can and likely often will sustain three Big Ten representatives, but four? Could USC push Penn State out?

Quite possibly. But we need to see how the Trojans will respond to Big Ten play. The conference they and the Fighting Chip Kellys of UCLA are fleeing has seen much, much better days. The Big Ten, even minus its current Big Three, will offer more annual resistance, and although it’s easy to see USC navigating most of it, it’s also not hard to envision the Trojans occasionally getting ground into paste by Illinois or Wisconsin on a windy November afternoon, or getting handled in Columbus by a margin that gives pollsters pause.

Just as with Michigan and Ohio State, though, Penn State will benefit merely from the Trojans’ presence in the conference and on their schedule. If they’re good, the same logic as outlined above applies should Penn State lose the matchup. If they’re not, they’re one more feather in the Nittany Lions’ conference cap, one that will have more curb appeal than similar wins over Michigan State or Maryland simply because of the Trojans’ national reputation.

Even if it’s not fun to think about, Penn State and its fans should want Michigan and Ohio State and even USC to stay as strong as possible, simply because the games the Nittany Lions play against them each year will, in addition to bolstering that strength of schedule, set the bar for the level of competition they’d face in any sort of playoff field, win or lose. There’s little need or even incentive to schedule home-and-homes with Power 5 non-conference opponents if you’re taking on two or three of the Top 10 teams in the nation each season already.

It behooves Penn State, of course, to take advantage of this well-timed opportunity, and this is all moot if the Nittany Lions regress to the confusing .500 form of the two previous seasons. They were varying levels of impressive in the 10 wins against average-to-sorry competition this season and varying levels of meh in their losses to the big boys. They’ll need to keep improving to avoid stubbing their toes against the weaker teams on the schedule and make the games against the stronger teams more competitive if not outright victories.

But, as college football prepares to open the door and lower the membership requirements to its heretofore exclusive, snooty, and stale figurative championship country club, and consequently becomes a lot more fun, it’s hard not to like where Penn State stands right now. Provided that, as the Nittany Lions continue to grow, their hated rivals stay well-fed, too.