Sunday Column: Add ‘Proficient Passing Attack’ to the List of Nittany Lions’ Bowl Opt-Outs

Sometimes the opt outs don’t have a huge effect given the relative strength of the two teams in the bowl game or the matchups on the field. Other times you wind up wondering stuff like “Would Kalen King and Johnny Dixon have fared any better against a razor-sharp Jaxson Dart and his strong receiving corps than Cam Miller and Zion Tracy?” or “Would Manny Diaz have been able to make a few more moves on the chess board to match Lane Kiffin’s offensive creativity than Anthony Poindexter and Terry Smith?”

With the caveat that bowl matchups, even those of the New Year’s Six variety, almost never have both teams at the fullest versions of themselves these days, it was mildly disappointing not to see those matchups, or how Chop Robinson and Olu Fashanu, the Nittany Lions’ two best players in 2023, would have played against just the third quality opponent on the schedule.

But none of those things affected the outcome anywhere close to the same way the issue that had nothing to do with opt outs or coaching changes, the issue that has been the issue for Penn State this season, did in the Nittany Lions’ 38-25 loss to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.

It wasn’t a surprise that Penn State’s passing game was once again a smoldering mess — was one month and a healthy Tre Wallace truly going to change something that had been broken for 12 weeks? — but it was nonetheless disheartening, especially considering that, at least for the bulk of the game, it seemed that even an average passing game against a Rebels defense that had allowed 220 yards per game through the air (60^th in FBS) and was missing its best pass rusher in opt-out defensive end Cedric Johnson would keep the Nittany Lions in what very quickly turned into a track meet.

As they did in the majority of their games this season, the Lions tried to work around the bewildering disconnect between Drew Allar and his deep but dreary corps of wide receivers. They threw to the tight ends. They got Nick Singleton involved in the passing game. Hell, there was a Pribula pass! But while those tactics were enough in the 10 wins against overmatched opposition due largely to Penn State’s defensive dominance, they couldn’t save the day against teams who could actually score on the Lions, and form held Saturday.

Here is the truly disconcerting cherry on top of the disheartening sundae — passing attacks largely come down to three things: the quarterback, his receivers, and the scheme itself. By giving Mike Yurcich the boot, James Franklin sent a clear message that the scheme wasn’t up to snuff this season. Fine. Between the transfer portal and the incoming freshman class, the receiver room, arguably the biggest culprit, should change at least a bit. That leaves Allar, who sparkled at times this season but was simply not good enough against the good teams and that was glaringly true in Atlanta. The big sophomore battled to the end, leading the Lions on an essentially meaningless touchdown drive late in the fourth, but his final numbers—19 of 39, 295 yards, two scores and a pick—were pedestrian on the surface and even more sobering upon closer inspection. His 75-yard hookup with Tyler Warren, one of at least a half dozen passes that were tipped, was arguably his worst throw of the afternoon, an ill-advised, against-the-grain lob into a heavily trafficked middle of the defense. Another 10 yards of that passing total was Allar to … Allar, after he caught another tipped pass and smartly headed upfield. That one catch was more than any Penn State wide receiver other than Wallace or Liam Clifford had on Saturday.

Allar avoided pressure and made a few plays with his legs, but he also held the ball too long on his late sack and fumble and on several other occasions, and the number of throws that were simply off-target when he was able to set and fire would have been alarming if it weren’t so familiar. Good quarterbacks can make the occasional play in broken systems, and Allar showed just enough of that at times this season to give at least a glimmer of hope if you’re among those who believe Andy Kotelnicki can bring some order and some competency to this passing game. But Allar also once again made you wonder if he can truly provide the type of consistency that makes competent passing attacks click, or if he made any true, tangible progress from Game 1 to Game 13.

The final numbers other than the pair on the scoreboard were deceiving; Penn State had 510 yards of offense and 7.5 per play to Ole Miss’ 540 and 6.1. But those 540 came against what was, even with some serious NFL talent on the sideline, a terrific defense, and they came largely from a quarterback who threw with confidence and precision. The 510 came mostly from yards after the catch from tight ends and running backs and balls delivered from a quarterback who still has yet to find his rhythm in 2023. If that is going to change in 2024, it is going to take more than new faces at receiver and a new offensive playbook.