Sunday Column: 3 Things That Matter, 3 Things That Don’t Before Penn State Plays Game 3

Ah, yes, the week 3 bye. A chance to reflect on all we’ve learned about Penn State through the first two games, which is to say: Not much. Are the Nittany Lions the balanced bullies we saw in Morgantown or the flawed playoff pretenders that scratched out a one-possession win over a middling Bowling Green team at home? Or, perhaps, something completely different than either of those two versions?

We won’t know for a few more weeks. But there were a few things that hinted at what the Lions’ immediate future might look like, and a few that are unlikely to stay that way, good or bad, for the remainder of the year.

3 THINGS THAT DON’T MATTER

Third-down struggles: Yes, Penn State’s third-down conversion rate (35%, 94th in FBS) is mildly disturbing when you consider it hasn’t exactly faced world-beating defenses, and if that trend continues, it will mean fewer plays for the offense to be on the field and more plays for a suddenly suspect defense to have to be on the field. However, this is a small sample size, and third-down conversion rate, while not something you want to disregard entirely, is not a be-all, end-all statistic. Why? If you can pick up first downs, or even big, chunky, sexy touchdowns, on first or second down, there’s no need to convert on third. The Nittany Lions have, thanks to their crafty coordinator and a revitalized Drew Allar, more explosive punch than we’ve seen recently (more on this in a bit), and have shown the ability to score points despite the third-down misfires. Expect this stat to improve a bit as the season progresses but also for the offense to deliver the chunk plays that will mitigate it even if it doesn’t.

Bowling Green’s 24-point first half: So, about that start last week. A full-strength Penn State defense let the Falcons go right down the field on the opening drive and wasn’t much stingier after that, allowing 286 yards before the half. That the defense was back to its typical stubborn standards (three points and 89 yards allowed) in the second half was little consolation to fans who saw images of Southern Cal Trojans and Ohio State Buckeyes running free in the secondary or through holes the size of Gabe Nwosu near the line of scrimmage. Yes, the Nittany Lions aren’t as heavy with top-end defensive playmakers as they’ve been in the past. And yes, they’ll need to get KJ Winston back from an injury before the meat of the schedule hits. But let’s give this still mostly deep and mostly talented group, and the indefatigable Tom Allen, a few more games before we pronounce them broken. (Just tackle, guys, K?)

Inconsistent receiving stats: As encouraging as Tre Wallace’s five catches for 117 yards against West Virginia was, it was somewhat ominous that, aside from Omari Evans’ haul-in of an Allar bomb late in the first half, it was a no-show day from the rest of Penn State’s beleaguered receiving corps. And then Wallace followed that up with … no catches against Bowling Green, when the wideouts managed a total of 37 yards on three catches. This position group doomed the Nittany Lions last season when it counted, and it’s the group that’s going to have to deliver at some point if they’re going to win the big games in 2024. However … Kotelnicki and the offense (italics)still cooked(end italics) without much contribution from the wideouts. Penn State has one of the nation’s best tight ends, legit receiving threats at running back, and a running game that, because of those threats, can produce 50-yard plays on the ground as easily as through the air. Wallace, if he can stay healthy, has a great rapport with Allar, and Kotelnicki has already proven he knows how to get him open. As for the rest of the group? The jury is still out. Perhaps it’s more accurate to say that the paltry receiving stats don’t matter (italics)yet(end italics).

3 THINGS THAT MATTER

Allar’s comfort level and decision-making: The big guy’s splits in games against inferior competition versus the games when Penn State got trucked are well-documented, but it’s clear he’s a different player now than he was even in his best game in 2023. He’s throwing with anticipation, moving smartly around the pocket, seeing the field, and knowing when to run and when to throw it away. As mentioned above, there are some ways around Penn State’s lack of reliable options at wideout, but none of them work without a functional if not exceptional Allar, and his play through the first two games, while leaving plenty of room for improvement, has to be encouraging to even the most skeptical of observers.

Kotelnicki’s schemes: If Allar is a different player in 2024 than he was in 2023, it’s largely because the offense he is playing in is very different, and Penn State’s new offensive coordinator is the reason why. While you were freaking out about the defense in the first half last week, the offense was quietly racking up 9 yards per play. This is now a group that, personnel issues be damned, can hurt you via the short pass, deep pass, intermediate pass, and inside or outside with the running game. That is a lot for defenses to take away, and the Lions are already executing this system as if they’ve played in it for years, not a few months. Seeing how Kotelnicki attacks more talented defenses will be one of the truly intriguing parts of the rest of the season.

O-line holding up: Penn State lost three starters off a very good if not great 2023 offensive line, including top-10 draft choice Olu Fashanu. The line could easily be forgiven for taking a big step back this fall, but if it has, it hasn’t shown so far. Allar has been under some duress but has had time to take shots downfield, and the line is opening good holes for Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who often only need creases. Young players like Cooper Cousins and Anthony Donkoh are gaining valuable experience and blending nicely with the vets. Sure, this might be a very different report by Penn State’s second bye week, but the early results have given cause to believe that the offense will continue to be a strength, not a weakness.