Penn State’s Post-Spring Position Rankings

Try Saying That Headline Three Times Fast. Then, After You Fail Miserably, Sit Back and Read our Final Blog Entry of the Season While Untwisting Your Tongue 

Unless James Franklin finds another magic lamp to rub and the Genie within grants him three MORE practices sessions –  which is apparently what happened the Saturday before last – Penn State concluded its spring football schedule Friday night under the Beaver Stadium lights.  

If we’re taking Franklin at his word(s), Penn State either had a “very good spring” or a “great spring” since the adjective-obsessed head coach used both modifiers in the span of four sentences when delivering his opening statement. Regardless, it was A spring – a FULL spring of 15 practices – which in itself is a victory considering the cancellation of 2020’s spring football festivities led to the Nittany Lions stepping on rakes for five weeks last season. 

Franklin concluded his post-practice verbal appetizer by mentioning he’ll meet with every player one-on-one and provide feedback along with a voluntary To-Do List to complete before training camp begins in August. While he handles that on a micro level, we’ll get a bit more macro and rank Penn State’s position units as they currently stand…

8. Quarterbacks

Obvious choice.  

Obvious not because Sean Clifford is the presumptive starter, although that certainly doesn’t help matters. No, this was the obvious choice because neither of the guys behind Clifford – third-year player Ta’Quan Roberson and early enrollee Christian Veilleux – appear poised to push the very ‘pushable’ Clifford. 

Franklin has publicly stated he’s not opposed to adding another quarterback via the Transfer Portal, but the fact he hasn’t done that makes us wonder whether that’s just talk – nothing more than a nameless, faceless invisible QB contender to keep Clifford motivated and uneasy because the guys left on the roster can’t.  Combined, Penn State’s non-Clifford quarterbacks threw a grand total of zero passes during an actual game last season. Roberson only handed off in the late stages of the Illinois blowout, and  Veilleux’s senior high school season was canceled because of COVID-19.

Back to Clifford…the main knock on No. 14’s forgettable 2020 was his inability to take care of the football. Starting 8 games last season, Clifford threw 9 interceptions and lost 3 fumbles. Starting 12 games in 2019, Clifford only threw 7 interceptions and lost 1 fumble. So, on paper, that knock is valid.

But after we paid Cris Collinsworth $119.99 for an annual PFF subscription, and dug a little deeper into Clifford’s metrics, we discovered the only real appreciable difference between Clifford’s 2019 and 2020 seasons – from a turnover standpoint, anyway — was the number of disastrous outcomes, not the number of disastrous opportunities. In other words, Clifford had crappy luck in 2020. 

PFF tracks a stat it calls ‘Turnover Worthy Plays’ which are defined as passes that have a high percentage chance to be intercepted, or runs/scrambles where the quarterback does a poor job protecting the ball.  In 2020, PFF credited Clifford with 10 Turnover Worthy Plays…even though he got tagged for 12 turnovers. Clifford’s 10 TWPs were the third highest in the Big Ten behind Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan (13) and Michigan State’s Rocky Lombardi (11). 

But when we look at Clifford’s Turnover Worthy Play percentage – number of TWPs divided by number of total QB dropbacks – Clifford (3.1%) grades out better than Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa (5.9%), Georgia’s JT Daniels (4.4%), USC’s Kedon Slovis (4.3%), Iowa State’s Brock Purdy (3.9%), Indiana’s Michael Penix Jr. (3.6%), and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence (3.4%). Yet ALL those big-name guys threw less interceptions than Clifford despite being more reckless with the football on a per play basis.

In fact, Clifford’s 2020 Turnover Worthy Play percentage (3.1%) ended up residing in the same neighborhood as his 2019 percentage (3.0%). And to shoot more hope in your system, Clifford didn’t commit a Turnover Worthy Play – again, according to PFF – during Penn State’s season-ending four-game win streak, which hints at a degree of growth and maturity after losing the starting spot mid-season.   

7. Defensive Line

Not sure whether Penn State’s recent scholarship offer to FCS Illinois State defensive tackle John Ridgeway proves Franklin and Co. aren’t sold on the current choices to line up next to PJ Mustipher on Sept. 4, or if this is just a preventative measure to keep a 6-foot-6, 325-pound ascending talent away from Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa. Either way – if Ridgeway signs here or elsewhere – this DL unit has been completely flipped from 2020. 

Mustipher, an honorable mention All-Big Ten selection last season, is the lone returning starter following a satisfactory, but not spectacular, 2020 campaign. To be fair, Mustipher’s presence – and the frequent double-team attention he garnered – certainly aided Antonio Shelton’s statistical breakthrough. It is worth noting that Mustipher has ballooned up 26 pounds from last season. Perhaps he’ll play more 1-Tech this season? 

Conversely, FTB man-crush DT Hakeem Beamon dropped 30 or so pounds from last season and could see time at tackle and on the edge. Duke transfer Derrick Tangelo is a proven Power 5 starting defensive tackle offers security, depth, and a bridge while younger prospects like Coziah Izzard and D’Von Ellies develop. At worst, Tangelo should play 25-30 snaps per game this season. Fred Hansard remains a question mark because he can’t seem to stay healthy.

At defensive end, 3 guys are battling for 2 starting spots. Simple. Everybody assumes Adisa Isaac will be a surefire starter, but his weight (or lack of it) could limit his snaps. Temple transfer Arnold Ebiketie flashed on numerous occasions during both fan-attended Beaver Stadium scrimmages but, like Isaac, he’s currently a tad too slender. Whether former four-star recruit Nick Tarburton starts or not, he’s going to see a ton of playing time in 2021. Beyond those guys, Penn State is hurting big-time on experienced depth and young untapped potential.   

 

6. Linebackers

Switching 5-star linebacker Brandon Smith from the SAM to the WILL should permit the uber-talented but inconsistent third-year defender to unscrew the restrictor plate to his game, thus unbridling his full play-making potential in the run game and as a blitz threat. Curtis Jacobs – who backed up Smith last season and was the lone bright spot in Penn State’s bellyflop vs. Iowa – will step right in the vacated SAM spot and vie for All-Big Ten honors sooner than you’d think…he’s THAT good.

Presumably, Ellis Brooks will man the middle, although his missed tackle rate of 14.3 percent (according to PFF) was the worst among Penn State’s starting linebackers in 2020. Charlie Katshir, who missed the second half of 2020 because of injuries, is capable of eating into Brooks’ total snaps. He played well in limited action last season. Senior Jesse Luketa, whose 59 total tackles in 2020 were good for second-best on the team, could switch positions between now and August.

5. Running Backs

Way back in late November 2020, we touched upon Keyvone Lee’s physique in our post-Michigan 2020 Hindsight blog, writing: 

Around the Twitterverse, a lot of Penn State fans threw out yesteryear comps for the newly-minted Big Ten Freshman of the Week. Tony Hunt is a popular pick. I also saw an Evan Royster, too. Here’s the thing: I think any comparison made this year is premature, because I think (or hope) Lee will look completely reshaped nine months from now if there’s any semblance of normalcy in the 2021 off-season S&C program.

Remember, Lee wasn’t an early enrollee, so he’s only been privy to regimented nutrition and training for a few months – and who knows how “normal” all that even is because of COVID precautions. If Lee drops 20 pounds of bad weight (he looks too heavy) and gains 10 pounds of good weight, perhaps he’s more of a Miles Sanders comp – a shifty, patient runner who can catch the ball and flash above-average (not elite) speed  — in 2021. 

Soooo, technically, we weren’t wrong: Lee did completely reshape himself…from big to bigger! Now weighing 238 pounds, Lee stood out in both April Beaver Stadium scrimmages and appears primed for a breakout campaign after hinting at greatness with 80-plus-yard games vs. Michigan, Rutgers, and Illinois at the end of last season. At the very least, Lee’s emergence leaves little reason to rush back Noah Cain before he’s fully recovered from a foot injury suffered on the opening drive vs. Indiana. 

Assuming John Lovett’s Baylor tape doesn’t lie, his shiftiness and straight-ahead speed should perfectly complement Lee and Cain’s tough running styles. Caziah Holmes’ opportunities as a freshman were limited because the newbie was such a liability in pass protection. If that aspect of his game dramatically improves, Holmes might be the Nittany Lions’ biggest offensive surprise this season.   

Not sure where Devyn Ford fits in this mix.

4. Tight Ends

Placing this group was definitely the toughest call of the article because while still-technically-freshmen Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson sweat talent, whiz athleticism, and regurgitate potential, it’s unclear whether any of that will matter much in Mike Yurcich’s offense. It’s kind of like being a Nobel Prize winner in a pie-eating contest – yeah, that’s super impressive, but who cares next to these human tubs of goo.

Originally recruited to star in Ricky Rahne’s tight-end friendly scheme, Strange and Johnson now find themselves in a potent offensive attack that’s able to post points in a hurry partially because the OC doesn’t waste time incorporating plodders into the passing game. Through 7 years as an FBS Offensive Coordinator (6 at Oklahoma State, 1 at Texas) Yurcich never had a tight end catch 20 balls in a season – current Dallas Cowboys tight end Blake Jarwin tops the list with 19 in 2016 for Okie State. Conversely, soon-to-be millionaire Pat Freiermuth hauled in 23 receptions last season for Penn State…IN FOUR FREAKING GAMES! Heck, the only Yurcich tight end to catch more passes than Strange’s 17 from 2020 is the aforementioned Jarwin.

Not that it really matters, but depth could also be an issue if Strange or Johnson misses time due to injury. Tyler Warren made two cameo appearances for the Nittany Lions in 2020 but didn’t register a reception. He did, however, look good at Penn State’s first fan-filled spring scrimmage on April 17…at least that’s what we’ve been told since it wasn’t on TV. True freshman Khalil Dinkins should redshirt unless something cataclysmic happens.         

 

3. Wide Receivers

1. Jahan Dotson, duh.
2. Parker Washington.
3. Good question.

Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington combined for 88 catches, 1,373 yards, and 14 touchdowns during a Shetland 2020 season, and nothing from spring practice suggests that production will fall off with Mike Yurcich calling plays in 2021. So we’re cool there. 

But who will emerge as a viable No. 3 receiver?

Well… 

Second-year receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith saw action Week 1 vs. Indiana as a true freshman, finishing the season with 15 catches and 138 yards – both stat totals good for third-best among Penn State receivers. Upperclassmen Daniel George and Cam Sullivan-Brown – two guys we thought were Transfer Portal bound – decided to stick around give it another shot. Perhaps Mike Yurcich’s hire played a role?

Non-green light second-year players Malick Meiga, Norval Black, and Jaden Dottin did get the benefit of a full spring practice before newcomers Liam Clifford, Harrison Wallace and Lonnie White, Jr., enter the mix this summer.

James Franklin announced late in the spring that third-year cornerback Marquis Wilson had been moonlighting at wide receiver in practice – a bizarre move that (to us, anyway) pretty much assures Woodson Wilson won’t see much time at either position this fall.

2. Offensive Line

INT. MOTEL ROOM – MORNING

Television weatherman PHIL CONNORS awakens to the sounds of Sonny & Cher’s ‘I GOT YOU BABE’ blasting from the alarm clock. 

Just like last year, and the year before that, and probably the year before that, THIS is the year Penn State’s offensive line puts the pieces together and regularly bullies Big Ten defense…

…maybe.

The foundation for such hope rests in the two mammoth bookends Penn State has coming back at tackle – 2022 1st Round NFL Draft pick Rasheed Walker, and 2023 2nd-3rd  Round Draft pick Caeden Wallace. After earning 3rd Team All-Big Ten honors in 2020, Walker passed on a six-figure paycheck to come back to college and chase a seven or eight-figure paycheck. Smart guy. Several 2022 Mock Drafts project Walker as a late 1st Round pick. Barring injury, we’d say the late 1st Round is Walker’s floor. In retrospect, Wallace’s mid-season insertion at right tackle, which caused Will Fries to scooch over to right guard, was pretty darn smooth. In 415 total snaps, Wallace allowed just two snaps and nine quarterback pressures.

Two of the three G-C-G spots seem solidified with Mike Miranda handling duties at center and Juice Scruggs filling either the right or left guard positions (in 2020, Scruggs saw 66 snaps at LG, 68 at RG.) Because transfer Eric Wilson decided to finish his academics requirements at Harvard this spring instead of enroll at Penn State, it’s uncertain whether or not veteran Des Holmes will truly be challenged for the other starting guard spot when fall practice begins in a few months.

A lot of freshmen and redshirt freshmen are a pulled hammy away from substantial playing time, which is worrisome, especially after Penn State’s offensive line navigated through 2020 without a major injury. 

1. Secondary

For a unit that gave up a bagful of big plays and failed to correct communication issues from start to finish last season, man, the guys in Penn State’s secondary are really freaking loaded with talent. 

Don’t forget (because we know you have) Tariq Castro-Fields held Indiana’s Ty Fryfogle – the eventual B1G Receiver of the Year — to his lowest-graded performance of the season (according to PFF) during Penn State’s Week 1 win-that-wasn’t. The next week, Ohio State didn’t mess with throwing toward TCF’s side of the field until more than mid-way through the 2nd quarter. As we wrote back in January, TCF’s senior season was “brief but occasionally brilliant.”

Blessed with elite length and sneaky physicality given his slender frame, Joey Porter Jr. seems poised to build off a solid 2020 and blossom into a star. South Carolina transfer John(ny) Dixon should battle Daequan Hardy for the Nickel spot deep into fall practice. Freshman Kalen King is getting a ton of hype, and rightfully so, after intercepting two passes in Penn State’s faux Blue-White game on April 17. The Nittany Lions only had four interceptions as a team last season. 

The grading services liked Jaquan Brisker’s 2020 tape a lot better than we did, but it’s still a big plus to have him back. More than one person called us dumb when we predicted in our John(ny) Dixon scout that Keaton Ellis would get moved from cornerback to safety before next season. Well, that happened…further proof a blinking microwave clock is still right twice a day following a blackout.