Penn State Football’s Van Wilder Candidates
Thanks to the NCAA Granting Student-Athletes an Eligibility Mulligan in 2020, a Handful of Nittany Lions ‘Super’ Seniors Could Potentially Stick Around for Year 6
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For those unfamiliar with the reference, Van Wilder was the protagonist in a forgettable, low-budget National Lampoon movie about a Peter Pan college undergrad with no ambition to ever leave the ivy-laced utopia of campus life.
As you probably guessed, the film cast an uptight Dad threatening to cut-off Van Wilder’s tuition money, a curmudgeonly Dean searching for excuses to expel this campus king, and included a lot of life lessons learned through copious alcohol consumption at various themed-parties.
If you’re considering spending $3.99 to rent it…don’t.
The point we’re trying to make is that the NCAA’s decision not to count the 2020 football season against players’ collegiate eligibility has given – and will continue to give – prospects on the fringe of getting drafted the option of temporarily curbing life in the Real World for another year of fall football Saturdays.
After last season, two Penn State fifth-year seniors exercised that option…albeit with changes of address. Defensive tackle Antonio Shelton parlayed a modest breakout campaign – 3.5 sacks, 4.5 TFL, honorable mention All-Big Ten – into a grad-transfer offer from Florida. Defensive end Shane Simmons finally showed flashes of his 4-star potential in mid-December vs. Michigan State, but initially balked at another year of college ball to pursue a career in business. After realizing 99.9 percent of adults would kill to go back the carefree life of a college student, Simmons flipped a U-ey and transferred to Marshall.
Fifth-year offensive linemen Michal Menet and Will Fries, along with and fifth-year defensive end Shaka Toney, tested the professional waters and wound up getting drafted consecutively in the 7th Round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
This year, the stay-or-go decision belongs to ‘super seniors’ Sean Clifford, Fred Hansard, Ellis Brooks, Jonathan Sutherland, Mike Miranda, Arnold Ebiketie, Cam Sullivan-Brown, and Des Holmes. Without the benefit of knowing what each guy will do in 2021, we nonetheless assessed the pros and cons attached to four of those players’ situations and mapped out what they (and James Franklin) will have to consider five months from now.
Sean Clifford
NIL earning potential and Penn State’s inexperience at quarterback heading into 2022 makes Clifford’s impending 6th-year decision incredibly interesting.
Couple hypothetical scenarios to consider:
First, Mike Yurcich’s points his magic wand at Sean Clifford and completely transforms him into a late-Day 2/early-Day 3 NFL Draft pick. In that case, Cliff probably leaves. For context, the New Orleans Saints drafted Notre Dame QB Ian Book late in the 4th Round of the 2021 NFL Draft and signed him to a deal that guarantees him roughly $675,000. Even with potential Heisman hype in 2022 following a big bounce-back 2021, not sure Clifford’s NIL money would reach the high six-figures.
Second, Mike Yurcich can’t fix Sean Clifford and the same issues that plagued his rough 2020 season carryover in 2021. Then, likely, Clifford either gets on with his life or transfers to start at another school. Can’t see James Franklin wanting him back.
Third, Clifford is good not great – basically 2019 Sean Clifford. If that occurs, maaaybe an NFL team buys a 7th-Round lottery ticket on Clifford but. more likely, he signs as an Undrafted Free Agent and gets cut in camp. Is that worth leaving Penn State for?
Some context: SMU quarterback Shane Buechele signed as an UDFA with the Chiefs in May 2021 and received a $15,000 bonus along with a $160,000 base guarantee for being a premium free agent – so $175.000 in total compensation, at the very least. Former Florida/Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks signed with the Atlanta Falcons after not hearing his name called and will receive $100,000 in guaranteed money if he doesn’t make the roster.
Considering Sean Clifford is the starting quarterback at a blue-blood college football program, matching the guaranteed money of an undrafted NFL free agent quarterback through NIL deals seems possible, if not probable. So considering the opportunity to be an UDFA NFL QB would still be there in 2023, and considering Franklin could use an experienced ‘bridge’ QB while Beau Pribula and Drew Allar learn Yurcich’s offense in 2022, perhaps Clifford comes back for one last ride.
Arnold Ebiketie
After this season – no matter if the Temple grad transfer registers 1 sack or 11 sacks – Ebiketie must ask himself the same two questions Jayson Oweh was forced to ponder last December:
Where am I projected to be drafted?
and
How high is my ceiling?
Along with quarterback and left tackle, defensive end/EDGE represents the third prong on the NFL Draft top-dollar-position trident. As we documented in our dollars-and-cents blog post analysis of Jayson Oweh’s choice whether to play football on Saturdays or Sundays this fall, there’s major financial incentive for DEs to pass on Day 2 draft slots in hopes of landing in the 1st Round the following year…assuming they secure a quality ‘Loss-of-Value’ insurance policy.
In 2021, 6 defensive ends were selected in the first round – the most of any position. The highest first-round DE pick – Jaelen Phillips of Miami – signed a fully-guaranteed 4-year, $14 million contract. Oweh, the second-to-last pick of the first round, signed a 4-year, $11.3 million contract — $8.9 million guaranteed.
Compare that to the No. 50 overall pick, Georgia DE Azeez Ojulari who got selected in the 2nd round by the New York Giants. Despite falling off the board a mere 19 picks after Oweh, only $3.9 million of Ojulari’s 4-year, $6.7 million contract is guaranteed.
The moment pen met paper, Oweh suddenly had $5.6 million in his bank account. Ojulari won’t make $5.6 million total until October 2024…assuming he’s still in the league.
Ebiketie is an interesting case because he entered college as an overlooked, undersized ‘project’ that Temple built-up into an 2nd-team All-AAC disruptive force last season. The still-somewhat-slight pass rusher (Ebiketie played at 240 pounds in 2020) led the Owls in TFL (8.5), sacks (4), and forced fumbles (3). At Penn State, Ebiketie has already beefed up to 256 pounds and enters fall camp as a shoe-in starter.
But how big of a leap can Ebiketie make physically, athletically, technically in one season? Even more pertinent, how much better could Ebiketie be physically, athletically, technically with a sixth year of college football?
If the answer is “a lot” then perhaps the NFL can wait.
Jonathan Sutherland
The NCAA eligibility exemption giveth and taketh away.
Although not a fifth-year player like Shelton, Simmons, Toney, Fries, Menet and Co., then-true senior safety Jaquan Brisker surprisingly decided to forego a Senior Bowl invite and early-Day 3 NFL Draft slot for another year at Penn State. Brisker enters 2021 on pretty much every applicable award watchlist.
Redshirt senior Jonathan Sutherland will be Brisker’s backup. Had the NCAA not gifted athletes a ‘do-over,’ he’d probably be the starter.
Without a clear path toward starter’s reps, Sutherland has moonlighted at SAM linebacker in fall practice, although the same issue exists there, too. Five-star Curtis Jacobs is the definite starter. Best case scenario, Sutherland rises to second string.
If Sutherland stayed in college for 2022, he’d definitely be the most experienced strong safety on Penn State’s roster and adequately fill Brisker’s spot. But, James Franklin must consider whether extending an invitation for Sutherland to return causes one or more of his talented young safeties – guys like Enzo Jennings, Jaylen Reed, Zakee Wheatley — to transfer.
Des Holmes
According to media reports from Penn State’s open portion of practice last Saturday, Des Holmes ran with the third-string O-lineman – which might mean something, but also might not mean anything.
Most figured Holmes would battle Harvard transfer Eric Wilson for the vacant right guard position manned by Fries in 2020. And he still might…but whether he does or not, a huge opportunity awaits Holmes in 2022 at a HUGE position of need…if he decides to stick it out one more season.
Besides starter and future millionaire Rasheed Walker, Holmes is the only player on Penn State’s roster with substantial reps at left tackle. In 2019, Holmes received rotational backup snap at LT – 275 total. Last year, Walker lined up at LT for every play except the garbage-time portion of the season finale vs. Illinois. Walker’s dependability pushed Holmes inside to guard in 2020 where his snap count severely dipped. After being on the field for a season-high 36 plays vs. Indiana, Holmes only appeared in three more contests in 2020 and never received more than 15 snaps in those games.
If Holmes isn’t the answer, look for Franklin to sift through the Transfer Portal for a left tackle next offseason.
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