Introduction

Before we turn the page to 2021, let’s take one last look back on the 2020 Penn State Nittany Lions. What trended well? What were the consistent strong/weak points? And, finally, what needs to be fixed in the offseason. Today, it’s the offense’s turn under the microscope. As we always do, this season-ending summary will be a thorough mix of basic and advanced stats within the broader context of the James Franklin era at PSU. 

Basic Statistics Summary

Our first graph shows the yards generated in each game. Passing yards (blue), rush yards (orange), and total yards (red) .

With the exceptions of Indiana and Nebraska, Penn State really struggled to run the ball early in the season and relied heavily on the pass game to generate yards against Ohio State, Maryland, and Iowa which were (probably not) coincidentally the three biggest losses. Penn State’s lack of a rushing attack against good defenses like the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes –two teams that typically have strong, opportunistic defensive lines – left the Lions offense vulnerable to sacks and turnovers. If we look at passing yards as the % of total yards generated (Pass Share) in the graph below, you can see how much the offense skewed towards passing, especially early on.

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Thanks Temple for Spending Four Years Developing an Unwanted Recruit Into an All-Conference Pass Rusher…We’ll Take It From Here

We’re Portal People, now.  Embrace it.

While the rest of college football was on IG Live squawking about how they kicked dudes in the face and duct-taping squeeze bottles atop trophy stands, Penn State spent the dying breaths of 2020 putzing around the Transfer Portal – College Football’s Monster.com. And wouldn’t you know, while traversing this strange, foreign place, four players 99.9 percent of us have never seen play one snap of football decided to continue their careers in Happy Valley.

Sweet.

The latest (as of this keystroke) and most intriguing newbie is former Temple Defensive End Arnold Ebiketie, a 2nd Team All-AAC Grad Transfer with two years of eligibility left to finish tapping a deep reservoir of talent/potential. By now, you’ve seen his 2020 stats: 42 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and one defensive touchdown – a gift score that might have been his LEAST impressive highlight all season.

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There is a simple path for Penn State to return to football glory after a weird, wild and abbreviated 2020 season the Nittany Lions and their fans can only hope was an aberration:

Get in the damn end zone. As many times as possible.

If you watched Penn State’s strange and maddening autumn odyssey, from the stunner in Bloomington to the beatdown of Illinois, you saw both dysfunction and gradual improvement from the Nittany Lions in all three phases. You might have heard James Franklin profess one or two or 40 times over the years the importance of “complementary football,” and, yes, a stout defense and at least average special teams play are crucial for any team to have a chance to win at this level.

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As The Usual Suspects Once Again Play For All The Tostitos, We Present an Alternative Postseason Plan and Answer All Naysayers Before They Can Open Their Mouths

Sure, we’ll take a stab at this…

Format: 8 Teams. Single-elimination tournament. The existing College Football Playoff Committee will seed the teams…1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, etc.  

Who’s In?: Conference Champions from the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12. One Group of 5/Independent representative – chosen by the committee. Two At-Large bids – chosen by the committee. At-Large teams CANNOT be seeded higher than No. 5.  

When: Entire college football calendar gets moved back one week. Conference championship games take place the Saturday after Thanksgiving.  Playoff quarterfinals begin two weeks later — second Saturday of December. Semis and National Championship remain Jan. 1 and the second Monday of January. 

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An occasional glance through recent NFL Drafts can serve as a cautionary tale to football-crazed high school prospects or even major-college players. Even those who wind up signing million-dollar contracts are likely to be out of the league in three years. Pro Bowlers can come from Round 1 or Round 5, and for every player who left school early, became an early-round pick and then faded into oblivion, there are a dozen other players who left school early and never had their names called at all.

 Those same glances, though, can also tell you a lot about college programs – which are producing the most talent, which are producing wins without a lot of talent or producing a lot of talent without a lot of wins. There is a lot more to sustained success than how many players a program sends to the NFL, but it sure doesn’t hurt, and it sure doesn’t hurt your recruiting, either.

Penn State has sent a more-than-respectable number of players to the NFL ranks during James Franklin’s seven-year tenure. In the last six drafts, 26 Nittany Lions have been selected, all but nine of those recruited by Franklin and his staff. That list includes two of the league’s best running backs (Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders) and a Pro Bowl wide receiver (Chris Godwin). Perhaps more impressively, all but three of those 26 players are currently on an NFL roster.

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Why What Seems Like a Foregone Conclusion Isn’t Necessarily a No-Brainer Decision

General consensus is Penn State Defensive End Jayson Oweh is a goner.

In fact, there’s a high probability that by the time you actually read this Oweh will have Notes App’d his goodbye to Penn State using standard Early Declaration Bingo Card buzz-phrases like “difficult decision”, “after praying on it”, “thank my coaches”, and “Nittany Nation.”

Therefore, we’re not predicting whether or not Oweh WILL take his talents to Sundays and play for a paycheck next September, rather we’re analyzing if he SHOULD. 

A genetic lottery winner blessed with unique length and uncanny speed for a 250-pounder, Oweh entered the abbreviated 2020 season with zero career starts and a ton of questions to answer…namely, are we sure he can play football?

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Once Again, Brent Pry’s Bunch Showed Up Fashionably Late on Saturday, but When They Did Finally Arrive the Party Ended Quickly for the Fighting Illini. 

FTB CHARTING – BOX SCORE  

Saying the 2020 Penn State Defense is susceptible to “Slow Starts” is the equivalent of saying Santa Claus is susceptible to early onset diabetes. 

Technically, both statements are accurate…but grossly understated. 

As Joe Juliano of The Philadelphia Inquirer noted in his Monday Season-Wrap story 166 of the 241 points the Nittany Lions allowed this season were surrendered in the first half.  That’s 69 percent! 

Niiic…wait, that’s not nice. That’s pathetic! 

The Illinois game perfectly exemplified Penn State’s 2020 early-game ineptitude. In the first 18 plays, what was left of the Fighting Illini compiled 198 yards on offense, scored 3 touchdowns and pulled off a hyper-sexualized end zone dance Robert Smith couldn’t stop referencing. But over the course of the next 42 plays, Penn State held Illinois to 75 total yards, forced seven 3-and-Outs, never let the Lovie-less lads run a play inside The Nits’ 30, and most importantly didn’t get SERVED, yo!  

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Wait, Kirk Ciarrocca’s Explosive Offense, You’re Leaving Already? But (checks watch) You JUST Got Here and We’ve Been Waiting FOREVER! Oh Well, Wanna Meet Up Again Down the Road? Say Sept. 4, 2021?

FTB CHARTING – BOX SCORE

Booked a hotel in Madison, Wisconsin, four weeks ago for Labor Day weekend 2021. Same night I booked a $240 a night, no-pets-allowed but hepatitis-friendly 2-star motel 30 miles from State College for Sept. 18. 

Give me hope. Give me normalcy. Give me something to look forward to, damn it. 

So as much as I wanted to see one more game, one more data point validating this late-season offensive revival, one more Penn State bowl game with an awkward Tourism Commission commercial touting all the non-fun things to do in a city none of us ever want to visit…I can’t say I’m crushed the 2020 ended prematurely. 

Not sure what the hell that has to do with Penn State’s offensive performance vs. Illinois, but whatever.  

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Introduction

Penn State’s victory against Illinois seems to be an oddly satisfying conclusion to a bizarre, frustrating, and at times (namely the first five games) disappointing season. But if it must end, let it end with a thorough beat down of an overmatched and depleted team. By now, most people know that the team opted to not play in a bowl game this year and no one should be upset about that. For myriad reasons, this has been one of the most stressful years in recent history and the team, coaches, and staff certainly earned the right to return to some sense of normalcy with their families and friends. Not even the prestige of playing in a condiment or mortgage lending bowl was worth continuing with the restrictions placed on them. Let them come back fresh in the mid-winter and begin preparations toward a hopeful 2021 season. In the meantime, we’ll look back on 2020 over the course of the next few weeks and try to get a picture of what was and what might be moving forward.

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