Welcome to Part 2 of our in-depth look at Penn State’s defense since the promotion of Brent Pry to Defensive Coordinator in 2016. In Part 1 we analyzed the Nittany Lions’ performance in standard statistical categories and compared those numbers against the rest of the Big Ten over the past 5 seasons (2016 – 2020). The main takeaway was that the “bend, don’t break” reputation that the Penn State defense has earned recently is deserved. Pry’s group tends to give up a fair number of total yards but does an excellent job of preventing teams from scoring and limiting big plays (the low YPP). Additionally, Pry’s teams have been better than average on 3rd down and generating Havoc plays in the form of sacks, tackles for loss, and fumbles.
Today, we will take a deeper look at the defensive performance in some of the more advanced statistical measurements. Again, all stats herein are only for conference games from 2016-2020.
As we crawl closer to the Year 1 finish line of this largely sophomoric/sparsely informative venture, more than one Friend Of The Blog has inquired whether we ever foresee a day when FTB morphs into a legit journalistic entity – you know, with real reporters asking real questions, jotting down real quotes instead of us embedding 1990s Simpsons clips in our stories.
The answer is an emphatic NO…for a few reasons.
For starters, our site’s philosophy has always been (and will always be) to complement, not copy, Penn State’s existing beat coverage. Doesn’t make sense to do what dozens of other outlets are doing…and doing better than we ever could. So for traditional Penn State coverage, go to sources like Donnie Collins in Scranton, Audrey Snyder at The Athletic, Ben Jones in State College, and BoFlo, Pickel and discount college t-shirt enthusiast Dave Jones in Harrisburg. They all do an awesome job.
Penn State will hold its final spring football practice in a week. Most years, it’s called the Blue-White Game, and it’s attended by as many as 70,000 fans, who probably aren’t dying to see how the third-string left tackle looks or who will be the next Aric Heffelfinger as much as they are just looking to scratch a football itch as they wait for September.
This year, the details are foggier, but we know that Penn State freshmen will be allowed inside the stadium to watch this practice or game or scrimmage or whatever it’s going to be. For the rest of us, it’s an opportune time to consider how the Nittany Lions might tweak the format in future, pandemic-free years of what is usually, after the initial excitement of seeing dudes in helmets and pads wears off, a fairly dull afternoon.
Some humble suggestions, with reasons why they would and wouldn’t work:
Quarterbacks slangin’ the tater. Receivers and corners squaring off in a running chess match. This format, which typically substitutes flags for live tackling, grates on traditionalists but there’s no denying the fast-paced appeal to both casual and knowledgeable fans.
Feels weird typing ‘Poor Mike Locksley’ when you consider he’s still employed and handsomely compensated despite his 8-43 career record as a head coach, but, man, it’s really hard to not feel a little bit sorry for this guy.
After pasting Penn State 35-19 and posting that admittedly clever ‘You Were…We Are’ graphic on social media, Maryland’s burgeoning sand castle got washed away when a wave of COVID infections spread throughout the program. More than half of the Terrapins’ remaining schedule vanished – along with any and all 2020 momentum — because of positive tests/mandatory quarantine rules, as Locksley’s crew participated in a Big Ten-worst five total games.
Then, Locksley’s entire coaching staff (or close to it) peace’d out for what seem like demotions elsewhere.
Defensive coordinator Jon Hoke left to take the DBs coaching job with the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons.
Offensive coordinator Scottie Montgomery felt becoming the RBs coach for the Indianapolis Colts was the best career move for him.
The trouble with consistently recruiting and developing pro talent is that you’re consistently having to replace it.
In a few weeks, Penn State will almost assuredly continue a three-year streak of having at least one defensive end selected in the NFL Draft. Jayson Oweh, last seen making jaws drop at Pro Day, is a possible first-round pick and will almost assuredly go in one of the first two rounds, and if Shaka Toney is also taken, which seems quite likely, it will mark four edge rushers drafted from one program in three years, which puts Penn State on par with anyone in the country.
Though that’s great for Oweh, Toney, Yetur Gross-Matos and Shareef Miller, and also continues a strong tradition for the Nittany Lions at the position that started under the tutelage of Larry Johnson and continued through Sean Spencer and now John Scott Jr., it leaves the current Penn State team in a potential bind at one of the most important positions in the college game.
There are currently 12 players listed as defensive tackles on Penn State’s roster, including veterans P.J. Mustipher and Fred Hansard, promising redshirt freshman Hakeem Beamon and Duke transfer Derrick Tangelo. By contrast, there are only nine defensive ends, including two walk-ons and only one scholarship player, Nick Tarburton, who has been with the program for more than two seasons.
Indiana’s quarterback situation makes Penn State’s quarterback situation look like (insert something clever here).
Michael Penix Jr. – 10-2* as a starter, Davey O’Brien Award semifinalist, 2nd Team All-Big Ten quarterback – remains on the shelf this spring after tearing his ACL during the Hoosiers’ win vs. Maryland in late November 2020.
When asked on March 1 about his post-surgery progress, Penix Jr. told the IU media he’s “on schedule.” That’s it. Just “on schedule.” Whether that means “on schedule” to fully participate in all aspects of fall camp and then breeze right back under center Week 1 at Iowa, well, Penix Jr. didn’t elaborate…so who knows? According to the first search result on Google – the typical depths of our research here at FTB — ACL rehab/recovery ranges from 7 to 9 months in length.
To make matters worse for Tom Allen, Indiana 3rd String quarterback Dexter Williams also tore his ACL during a non-contact spring practice drill – an injury that leaves the Hoosiers with one (1!) healthy scholarship quarterback: Jack Tuttle. In two forgettable starts last year, Tuttle threw for 331 yards while directing an offense that failed to surpass 20 points in either contest. Currently, Zack Merrill, Grant Gremel, and Will Jontz – three walk-ons with the most walk-on-sounding names ever – are sharing backup reps at practice.
Neanderball has a new (old) sheriff in Madtown.
After bequeathing play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph for seven forgettable games last year, sweatshirt enthusiast/Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst told the media in February that he’s snatching those duties back so that he – and only he – can make those tough choices of whether to run left, run right, or run up the middle.
In fairness to Rudolph, he was pretty much doomed to fail.
COVID clobbered Wisconsin’s continuity throughout the abnormal 2020 season as an early-season outbreak canceled several games and left the Badgers scrambling to assemble a patchwork 2-deep during weeks they actually took the field. That disjointed flow probably stunted QB Graham Mertz’s development in his first season as a starter…and if it didn’t, it’s a helluva excuse for his up-and-down performance. Following a near-perfect debut vs. Illinois – 20-21, 248 yards, 5 TD – Mertz threw more interceptions than touchdowns the rest of the way and only completed above 60 percent of his passes in one of his six remaining starts.
Up front, 4 of 5 starting slots on the offensive line are up for grabs, which would be worrisome if this was any other team besides Wisconsin. History hints they’ll be fine in the trenches. In fact, expect more in-game rotation/substitution along the offensive line compared to previous seasons because of the surplus of 4- and 5-star beefeaters on the Badgers roster.
Football, when you think about it, is all about math.
Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage (or QBR), running backs on their yards per carry, offensive and defensive linemen on the mass they possess and the mass they can move around. Coaches, of course, on their ability to make the hundreds of little equations add up to a win each week.
One of Penn State’s most underrated equations – the ability of Dwight Galt and his strength staff to add size and speed and skill to raw talent and turn it into future talent – was on display again this week during the team’s pro day.
Micah Parsons, a likely top 10 draft choice and the inarguable No. 1 linebacker in the Class of 2021, ran a 4.39-second 40 – one-tenth of a second off the best-ever time by a linebacker at the combine, Shaquem Griffin’s 4.38 in 2018 – at 246 pounds, or 21 heavier than Griffin. And it wasn’t even the top time of the afternoon. That one was a 4.36 40, which belonged to defensive END Jayson Oweh, who ran it at 257 pounds. That time was five hundredths of a second better than Montez Sweat, at 260 pounds, posted at the combine two years ago, which was the fastest ever.