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For The Blogy - A New Look at the Penn State Nittany Lions
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2021 Season

Big Stakes for B1G’s Brand

A Slate of High-Profile Non-Conference Matchups Could Define the Big Ten Before the Leaves Change

Sponsor: For The Blogy’s preseason coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Gear up for College Football season with Nike’s 2021 Penn State sideline collection of polos, t-shirts, hats, pullovers and more right HERE.

*Each FANATICS purchase helps support For The Blogy.

If there is one lesson to be learned thus far from college football’s playoff era, it is this: Brand matters.

While the number of playoff berths seems destined to expand eventually, it appears we will have several more years with the current model, in which the supply of postseason slots dramatically dwarfs the demand from would-be participants and their fans. It is a system where national perception of your program definitively dictates the reality of its playoff chances, a trend that absolutely extends to your conference at large. So if you aspire to chase an elusive committee selection, a great name is a necessity, but it sure helps to keep the right company. Don’t believe me? Ask our fellow Rebel Alliance partner the PAC-12 about how level the playing field seems from where they sit.

Perversely, one of the more frustrating losses for Penn State fans, a potential home upset of Ohio State in 2014 that hinged on two abjectly terrible blown calls, probably altered the Big Ten’s fate in the selection committee’s brand equity horse race – and therefore the Lions’ own future playoff chances – for the better. In August of 2014, the preseason conventional wisdom tabbed the stodgy Big Ten, clinging to its cable boxes and dusty memories of days gone by, as the most likely “odd man out” of the five-conference race for four newly-minted playoff spots. As it happened, Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes caught lightning in a bottle, and after a demolition of Wisconsin in the B1G Championship vaulted them over TCU and into the inaugural CFP, Ohio State toppled mighty Alabama on its way to a national title win over Oregon. That championship performance, which resuscitated the Big Ten’s flagging reputation and pushed the Big XII and PAC-12 down in the pecking order, never would have happened without the Nittany Lions taking one for the team.

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August 29, 2021by FTB Staff
2021 Season

Sunday Column: All Eyes on Clifford as Pivotal Penn State Season Approaches

Soon, we will find out exactly what sort of Penn State team we have on our hands. We won’t have to guess or argue about whether the defensive line has enough depth or who will step up as the third wide receiver – we’ll know. College football is back, and by this time next week, the Nittany Lions will be 1-0 or 0-1 and we’ll have five times more questions but we’ll also have 10 times more answers, with more to follow each week as summer becomes fall.

At the same time, what has been pretty much the question of the offseason, if not the last three years, will likely remain, and that is:

Can Sean Clifford get it done?

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August 28, 2021by FTB Jeff
2021 Season

Welcome to For The Blogy’s ‘Build Your Bankroll’ Challenge

Welcome to For The Blogy’s Bankroll Challenge presented by PlayAction Pools.

It’s completely FREE to join and, at the end of the college football season, one lucky winner is going to win a signed 16×20 picture  of Saquon Barkley (below) courtesy of our partners at Fanatics.

The contest will operate as a virtual sportsbook throughout the College Football Season.

Players will start with a fantasy bankroll of 10,000 shares and have the opportunity to build their bankroll with correct picks throughout the season. Players will be able to make picks on the Point Spread, Over/Under and Moneyline.

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August 25, 2021by FTB Staff
PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football — Quantifying the Whiteout

Introduction

Since 2004, Penn State’s annual Whiteout has grown into one of the biggest spectacles in college football and college sports overall. Two-page Sports Illustrated photo spreads, ESPN spots like this video from 2012, and viral moments like Michigan being forced to call a timeout on the first play from scrimmage in 2019, have all elevated this one-time promotional gimmick and made it the greatest college football tradition of the 21st century. But, while the hype of the Whiteout is nearly unmatched, does it give Penn State an actual advantage on the field? Are there some quantifiable, statistical signs that emerge because of the Whiteout crowd?

The Opponents & Tidbits

Before we get into the specifics, let’s take a look at the teams who’ve been schedule as Penn State’s Whiteout opponent over the years, starting with Purdue in 2004. Because of the Whiteout’s ‘circle the date’ stature, it’s no surprise that historical Big Ten heavyweights Michigan (6 Whiteout appearances) and Ohio State (5 Whiteout appearances) dominate the table below.

Opponent White Out Appearances (Years)
Michigan 6 (2006, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019)
Ohio State 5 (2005, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018)
Alabama 1 (2011)
Illinois 1 (2008)
Iowa 1 (2009)
Notre Dame 1 (2007)
Purdue 1 (2004)

 

Tidbits:

  • Penn State is 8-8 (50%) in Whiteout games but 90-22 (80%) at home since 2004.
  • Penn State is 4-2 against Michigan in Whiteouts and 2-3 against Ohio State.
  • Only 2 games (2007 Notre Dame and 2011 Alabama) have been out-of-conference games. Penn State is 1-1 in these situations. The 2021 Whiteout is against Auburn.
  • Penn State’s Whiteout opponents’ final records were 154-56 combined (73%) and included 9 teams that won 10+ games; only 2 teams (2007 ND and 2008 Illinois) finished with losing records.
  • Whiteout Kick-off Times:
    • Noon: 1 (2015 Michigan-Loss)
    • Late Afternoon (3:30-6:00 PM): 5 (2-3; wins 2005 Ohio State and 2013 Michigan)
    • Night (7:30 or 8:00): 10 (record: 6-4)
  • Both Alabama (2011) and OSU (2014) won national championships in the years that they were the Whiteout opponents. 2012 OSU was also undefeated but ineligible for postseason play.

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August 23, 2021by FTB Nathan
2021 Season

The State of Penn State Football

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How to view a Penn State football program firmly ensconced among the nation’s top title contenders, yet also a leader among that frustrating tier of perpetual playoff bridesmaids; a team widely regarded as the surest threat to Ohio State’s Big Ten dominance, yet coming off a historically-horrendous five-game losing streak to open 2020?

Let’s consider our Dear Old State through fresh eyes, and see it both ways….

MAYBE IT’S ACTUALLY BAD

We can start with the obvious. The team started 0-5, something that had previously occurred exactly ZERO times in Happy Valley, despite two World Wars, a pre-Zoom pandemic, social upheaval, 9/11, lousy recruiting with awful teams, and then an emotionally-devastating scandal resulting in ludicrous sanctions meant to devastate the program’s ability to compete. Zero. So cry me a river about some new coaches and missed practice time.

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August 22, 2021by FTB Staff
2021 Season

Sunday Column: Fine Line(s) Between Winning and Losing For This Penn State Team

It’s often said – usually by football people – that football is the ultimate team sport, that the success or failure of any given play is determined not by performance of the two or three players who actually touched the pigskin but by the performances of all 11 players working in unison, and how well they did against the 11 players working in unison to stop them.

So while the importance of the quarterback position has never been more prominent at all levels of the game, and while college teams typically need at least a few explosive plays from the quote-unquote skill guys each week, the teams who enjoy the most consistent success at the highest levels are the teams who get the most consistently productive performances from the most anonymous players on the field – the offensive and defensive linemen.

As far as Penn State is concerned as the 2021 season rapidly approaches, all eyes are on and all opinions are about No. 14. And yes, Sean Clifford must be more consistent and take better care of the football if the Nittany Lions are to have any kind of season to write home about. But Clifford has plenty of weapons to throw to and just as many behind him to carry the rock, plus a new offensive coordinator and system that promises to take some pressure off him and put it on the opposing defense.

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August 21, 2021by FTB Jeff
FTB Film Study

The Risk & Reward of Penn State DC Brent Pry’s Blitz Packages

August 18, 2021by FTB Staff
2021 Season

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football — Forecasting the Nittany Lions’ 2021 Season

 Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE.

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift! 

Introduction

Do you hate math? Do you also hate crude attempts to over-quantify something with tremendous uncertainty? Well, you’re in the wrong place then. But, since you’re already here, might as well stick around and see what my computer says is going to happen in each Penn State game during the 2021 season.

Last year, I developed a system (WAR) that allows us to estimate a team’s offensive, defensive, and overall efficiencies based on previous game-by-game performances. For the most part, it’s a useful retrospective tool that can also effectively predict the outcome of future games. In some unpublished work, I used this method to predict the entire 2019-2020 bowl calendar. Out of 39 games, my system correctly picked 31 straight-up winners (79%), 25 winners against-the-spread (64%), and 20 O/U (51%). Yes, it was a really small sample size, but that trial run showed there’s some potential in this system as a prognosticating tool.

Now, the obvious benefit of using this system during bowl season is that you have at least 12 games worth of recent data. In this exercise – forecasting each 2021 Penn State game – all our data is pretty dusty. Except for injuries, opt-outs, or suspensions, the bowl team is THE team. In August, the team is some amount of last year’s squad and coaching staff blended with new recruits, new transfers, and new schemes. Throw in COVID-related schedule and roster variances throughout college football from 2020, and this exercise gets even more difficult.

So, before we start, an ask of you dear reader – don’t nitpick this. Teams go up and down every year and some meet expectations, some exceed expectations, and some are Michigan (i.e. constantly underperforming). The dog days of August aren’t the best time to try and predict what will happen in November or December, but we’re doing it anyway. So don’t bust open your piggybanks just yet. This is nothing more than some fodder as we sweat through summer and await the fall.

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August 16, 2021by FTB Nathan
2021 Season

Ask An AP Top 25 College Football Poll Voter

In What’s Becoming an Annual Tradition, Fox 8 New Orleans Sports Reporter/AP Poll Voter/Friend of the Blog Garland Gillen Spoke With FTB About His Preseason Rankings on the Eve of Monday’s Release

Sponsor: For The Blogy’s preseason coverage is sponsored by FANATICS. Gear up for College Football season with Nike’s 2021 Penn State sideline collection of polos, t-shirts, hats, pullovers and more right HERE.

*Each FANATICS purchase helps support For The Blogy.

 

FTB: No need to beat around the bush here…did you rank Penn State?

GG: I actually don’t have them ranked, and it’s largely due to their quarterback play. Not that impressed with a lot of the quarterback play in the Big Ten, to be honest. I know Penn State rebounded from an 0-5 start and finished the second half of the season blazing, but that doesn’t erase a preseason Top 10 team starting 0-5. I think a lot of this season falls on Sean Clifford – when he protected the ball, Penn State won; when he turned the ball over, they lost. So you have a guy who was up-and-down last season, and now the backups aren’t experienced after Will Levis transferred to Kentucky, so that security blanket is gone. I know (James) Franklin is killing it in recruiting, so that bodes well for the future, but obviously those guys are a year away from being on the roster.

Now, with all that said, I have Wisconsin ranked No. 13 in my preseason poll. If Penn State goes to Madison and beats Wisconsin, then yeah they’re in the next week. Firmly in. Nothing is written in stone. After Week 1, my preseason poll could be flipped upside-down. We won’t have to wait long to see where Penn State stands.

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August 15, 2021by FTB Staff
2021 Season

Sunday Column: The Major Adversary Penn State Must Conquer is a Familiar One

One of the big storylines you’ll hear from TV talking heads or national media concerning Penn State in the coming weeks will be how the Nittany Lions will look to “bounce back” from a 4-5 season or are determined to “take the bad taste out of their mouths” after a 4-5 season, or … insert your well-worn cliché of choice here after a 4-5 season.

Though there is some truth to that – Penn State’s players and coaches are prideful guys, and much of the short-but-sour 2020 season was embarrassing, even if there weren’t many fans around to see it live – you have to wonder how much bouncing back this team will actually have to do this season.

Which is to say, Penn State had a bad record last season, but it wasn’t really a bad team. More like a decent-to-good team that just could not get out of its own way.

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August 14, 2021by FTB Jeff
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