The three most important letters in college athletics right now are NIL. The name, image and likeness game is a sport-within-all-the-sports that is already changing the very nature of amateur athletics and will continue to do so in ways both foreseen and unforeseen.

Another three-letter combination, at least for athletic administrators, that is nearly as important and will remain so is ROI. When it comes to coaches, particularly those in the high-profile and highly profitable sports of football and men’s basketball, getting a good return on investment can be the difference between a healthy athletics program and a perennial zombie.

Penn State made a substantial investment in James Franklin and, in turn, the football program last year, extending the head coach’s contract to one that runs through 2031. What follows is a closer look at what sort of return Franklin is offering on that investment, both in comparison to his peers and relative to the quality of teams with whom he is competing against those peers.

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Introduction

Prior to the start of the 2022 season, how many of us placed Penn State in Pasadena at the end of the year? All you lairs can put your hands down. Pegged as a rebuilding year at best, the Nittany Lions’ exceeded those meager expectations as their lone losses came at the hands of two teams (Michigan and Ohio State) still in contention to play for all the Tostitos on Jan. 9. The rest of the slate…well, the Nittany Lions managed to breeze through it sans some necessary last-minute Clifford magic at Purdue.  Though the official CFP rankings don’t concur, in our opinion, Penn State is pretty clearly one of the top-10 teams in the country, worthy of a Southern California showcase stage known as the “Granddaddy of them All” (RIP Keith Jackson) that could serve as the perfect springboard for a CFP run in 2023. So, today, we’ll wipe the dust off our Relative Performance Index (RPI) predictor and forecast how the Nittany Lions will stack up in several statistical categories against Utah in the Rose Bowl.

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Now that Penn State has wrapped up finals week, and the Nittany Lions can turn their (full) attention to the exam awaiting them in Pasadena, it seems a good a time as any to reflect on the lessons learned from two of the youngest Lions, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

These two dynamic running backs have injected life into what had for the last few seasons been a mostly comatose Penn State rushing attack this fall, leading to a 69% increase in rushing yards per game from 2021, and in doing so provided some teachable moments on subjects including:

Expectations

Singleton was the five-star stud of the Class of 2022, the 27^th overall player in the group and the top running back prospect according to the On3 consensus rankings. From the moment he committed, he had Penn State fans as excited as anyone not named Drew Allar, and when you watched some of his tape, that second name didn’t even matter. Allen, on the other hand, had some impressive bona fides of his own (the 136^th overall prospect and No. 8 RB) but not the sizzle, even as reports of him impressing in preseason camp trickled into the collective consciousness.

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Back in the day, when proponents of various sub-tier bowl games (the Poulan Weed Eater Independence Bowl was always a personal favorite) emphasized the virtues of playing in such games, one of the common themes they turned to again and again was the extra practices a team would receive leading up to the bowl game, a not-insignificant perk given the NCAA’s usual restrictions on offseason team gatherings.

The thought process went like this: Whether you win the game or not, you get a chance to get some younger players valuable practice reps and get a longer look at them, while your veteran players log some mental reps and get ready for that evening’s steak buffet/arcade tour/beach party. Collectively, players and coaches (including any just-hired coaches) get a theoretical leg up on next season.

In present day, that particular benefit seems of less value each year. Why? Because the team that is prepping for a bowl game in December will scarcely resemble the team that gathers for preseason camp the following August.

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Timing is everything — on the football field, where a blitz pickup by a running back can mean the difference between a long touchdown pass and a concussed quarterback, or in life, where the person you go on to spend 75 years with might not have given you a second glance at the bar if she hadn’t just been dumped by her boyfriend.

Penn State’s timing, while not exactly ideal in the fourth quarter against Ohio State this fall, could wind up being not that bad at all in future seasons — placing them “On The List” instead of arguing with the CFP bouncer outside the velvet ropes. In other words, yes, it would have been nice for the Nittany Lions if the decision to expand the playoff field from four teams to 12 had taken effect this month instead of 2024, as they would have been comfortably in the field.

As it stands, their chances of securing a spot in the top 12 going forward seem as good as most for several reasons, though the line will likely remain quite slim and subject to movement.

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Introduction

We’ve reached the conclusion of Penn State’s 12-game 2022 regular season slate, marking the end of an era in Happy Valley. (I told myself I wasn’t gonna cry. Hold it together, Nate). Barney Amor will never kick another punt in Beaver Stadium. As almost-canceled author Dr. Seuss once said, “Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened.” The unofficial mascot of this weekly blog post ended his storied career with another signature performance, booming balls for a 50 yards-per-punt average – just how a legend should go out. #RE96ECT.

via GIPHY

According to my notes, another era ended on Saturday, too – The Sean Clifford Era. More polarizing than the epic “yanny” vs. “laurel” debate of 2018 (when Sean was actually a sophomore academically), the 6^th-year senior and 4^th-year starter graced the Beaver Stadium stage for the final time on Saturday. He, and the 2022 team, went out with a 19-point win over “rival”(?) Michigan State, closing the season on a 4-game win streak during which the average margin of victory was 31 points. All things considered, it’s a good way to go out for Clifford but instead of focusing our attention solely on No. 14, today we’ll talk about this game and this season from a 30,000-foot perspective and put it in context of Penn State’s entire football history.

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Disclaimer: The following opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of For The Blogy. Hell, they might not even reflect the views of the author but, rather, those of Penn State fans he has been hearing from or reading during these last few weeks.

Penn State has completed a 10-win regular season, and will likely finish among the nation’s top 10 and play in a quality bowl game, such as they exist in any way, shape, or form outside the playoff these days.

By any measure, for a team that was predicted to go 8-4 or 9-3 by most, and was coming off 4-5 and 7-6 campaigns, the 2022 season must be considered a success. The Nittany Lions were the bug against Michigan and Ohio State (as was everyone else in the Big Ten), but they were the windshield against every other opponent on the schedule, winning those 10 games by the average margin of 25 points.

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