Nickel Back?

Contrary to the offseason narrative, Penn State senior cornerback Daequan Hardy’s 2022 numbers suggest it might not take much to return to form.

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After punctuating a pleasantly-surprising junior campaign with a cinematic pick-6 at Michigan State, piercing the sheets of snowflakes in his road all-whites as the blizzard raged on, it was expected Daequan Hardy would take another giant step forward last season.

Well, that didn’t really happen.

While secondary teammates Kalen King and Johnny Dixon took to new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s system like ants to a picnic, Hardy failed to feast – a disappointing year-to-year regression that sort of slid under the radar thanks to the Nittany Lions overall statistical dominance on defense.

Pro Football Focus dropped Hardy’s overall grade of 71 and coverage grade of 74.6 in 2021, to a 57.7 and 57.1 for 2022. By their metric a grade of 90 is considered elite and a 60 is competent, meaning Hardy dipped from very solid to (organ sting) “replaceable” (thunderclap, horse whinnies in distance) in the span of 12 months.

Is there cause for concern here? Expectations are as high as they’ve been in quite some time for Penn State football; what can we expect from Daequan Hardy in 2023?

Skillset

At 5’9” Hardy looks like the prototypical nickel back, with the necessary change-of-direction to hang with the shifty Smurfs teams like to play in the slot. Despite Hardy’s travel-size stature he also has 4.3-forty speed to keep a lid on top of your long-striding Z-receivers. He can be fooled at times by double moves but often nullifies those missteps since his elite movement ability gets him back into most of those plays.

That mobility and small target blocking area also makes Hardy tough to square up in space. He’s an unfavorable match-up for most running backs in pass protection. He has the speed to get around the edge from wide alignments and chase down any quarterback who tries to escape the pocket. Even if he doesn’t get home he can still affect passes.

2023 will be Hardy’s fifth season of B1G football. There isn’t much he hasn’t seen at this point. That football IQ and veteran leadership is a steadying force in a defensive backfield that lost a ton of snaps to the NFL/transfer portal.

Playing Time

In 2021, only two corners — JPJ and Tariq Castro-Fields — saw more snaps than Hardy, and no Nittany Lion played in the slot more.

Despite participating in all 13 games this past year, Hardy logged less snaps than Porter Jr., King, Dixon and even eventual castoff Marquis Wilson, with safety-turned-linebacker Jonathan Sutherland eclipsing Hardy in slot snaps.

It’s hard to explain away a depth chart slide that severe to the transition from Brent Pry’s to Manny Diaz’s system. It’s not looking good for the “nothing to see here” crowd.

Playing Situations

Although he was on the field less, Hardy’s situational role appears unchanged. Only 18% of his 2021 snaps and 17% in 2022 resulted in a rush by the opposing offense. It’s clear both defensive coordinators preferred to employ bigger, stronger personnel on all but obvious passing situations and didn’t view Hardy as a viable every-down defender.

Positionally, though, Hardy was used differently under Diaz compared to Pry as he saw more reps as a boundary corner (10 snaps in ’21, 42 last year) and as a deep safety (from 1 to 18 snaps). If James Franklin and Terry Smith didn’t trust what Hardy was showing them they wouldn’t have given him the chance to branch out.

Hardy also saw more opportunities in the increasingly-overlooked third phase of the game: special teams. He solidified his role as one of the starting gunners on the punt coverage unit in his first year on the job. He was regularly the first guy downfield to make a play or force a fair catch. Opposing jammers didn’t stand much of a chance at keeping him in front of them — unless they bent the rules.

Numbers Game

Hardy’s year-to-year statistical output reassures us that a “return to form” in 2023 won’t require that big of a bounceback.

Yes, there was a notable bump in opponents’ passing rating when targeting Daequan but 51.1 is still a very respectable mark. Among corners who logged qualifying snaps (>200) Hardy ranked third on the team in passer rating when targeted and 20th in the Power Five conferences.

For a guy tasked with covering slot receivers – guys who generally do damage after the catch – 3.3 YAC allowed per reception is darn near unheard of. Only one Power Five corner who spent most of his time in the slot allowed fewer yards after the catch in ’22 than Hardy’s total of 36 (NC State’s Tyler Baker-Williams).

The Verdict

I claim no expertise over defensive coverage technique, nor the algorithm PFF uses to judge these young men. I do, however, possess some dexterity with numbers and none of the statistical metrics justify Hardy’s grading slide. Whatever weakness he presented in the early goings he more than plastered over by season’s end.

What I can tell you with absolute confidence is a man of Hardy’s size has spent his entire life being under-estimated by coaches, by opponents and by the media. A wise man knows he’s much more dangerous as an under-dog than a front-runner.