Hindsight 2020: PSU Offense vs. Michigan 

Forget the Fireworks. Fundamentals and Simplification of a New Offense That’s Probably a Full Off-Season Away from Complete Functionality Got the Job Done vs. Sheep in Wolverines’ Clothing. 

FTB CHARTING – BOX SCORE

If coffee truly is for closers, then no one should be better caffeinated than Penn State’s offense.

For a program that (justly) received a ton of crap for not slamming the door on opponents late, I feel not enough is being made of Penn State’s 5:38-minute tractor-pull downfield to ice things inside an empty Big House. 

Seven runs. 

Three Knees.

Two 3rd and 2 conversions. 

All against a defense that KNEW what was coming, but still couldn’t stop it.

But it was like that all day, really. If anything, Penn State Offensive Coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca scaled back the sputtering offense – upping the two tight end looks, more than doubling the number of plays featuring six offensive lineman, and letting Sean Clifford rebuild his confidence with plenty of mundane, makeable throws and a sprinkling of spectacular runs. 

If Penn State didn’t beat itself, then Michigan couldn’t beat Penn State – simple. The lone unfortunate consequence of this newfound conservative victory formula is we probably won’t realize the true potential of this offense until 2021 at the earliest. 

But I’m cool with that, as long as we don’t lose until 2021 at the earliest.  

FORMATIONS

For the first time this season, Kirk Ciarrocca rolled out 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) to start the game. In fact, Penn State operated out of this specific unbalanced Shotgun Twins set three plays in a row on the Nittany Lions’ initial possession. The picture below is the third of those three plays because the ABC cameraman mashed the damn Zoom lever on plays 1 and 2. 

Penn State ran 14 plays out of this formation. Those plays averaged 6.1 yards, including Clifford’s designed QB Draw touchdown for 28 yards and Lee’s 4th Quarter 23-yard run that we’ll detail thoroughly in the next section when we fawn all over 84-Theo Johnson’s run blocking. 

Ciarrocca also brought the critically-panned 6 OL HEAVY package back to the stage this week, beefing up a total of 12 times (11 plays…Keyvone Lee’s boner false start penalty being the other). Against Iowa, Nebraska and Maryland, Ciarrocca used 6 OL HEAVY once.

Prior to the Michigan game, Penn State’s 6 OL HEAVY formations averaged 0.5 yards per play. Against the battered Wolverines, Penn State amassed 55 yards (5.0 YPP) in HEAVY…soooo, progress.

Like it did vs. Indiana (fumble) and Nebraska (no gain), Penn State featured a Will Levis-specific HEAVY package. This look, however, was drastically different than any of those other two toe-stubs. 

So yeah, 6 OL (Scruggs is the extra lineman), the tight end motions across the line, creating an unbalanced line. 86-Brenton Strange lines up as an H-Back/Offset FB while the RB gets flexed to the slot. No read. No mesh. It’s QB Off Tackle with the numbers in the Nittany Lions’ favor…and Michigan never adjusted.

Dagger TD. 

Dagger First Down to end the game. 

Now that this is on tape, next evolution is to throw goal line pop passes – ala the Freiermuth TD vs. Indiana – to Johnson, wheel routes to Strange out of the backfield, or see if Dotson can beat a corner in MAN with no safety help.  

Last note, Penn State ran a play with 4 true WRs and no tight ends – a first in 2020. Lutz caught a bubble screen for 3 yards.  Neat.

SUBSTITUTIONS

To quote legendary performer, Jackson Heights’ own, Mr. Randy Watson, “I believe the children are our future…teach them well, and let them lead the way.”

Sure enough, art imitated life, because that’s exactly what happened on Saturday. The children led the way!

Lining up in the aforementioned Shotgun Twins 2 TE set, Penn State started at least one player with freshman eligibility at wide receiver (3-Parker Washington), running back (24-Keyvone Lee), tight end (86- Brenton Strange and 84-Theo Johnson) and on the offensive line (79-Caedan Wallace).

And much like Mr. Watson said of his band, Sexual Chocolate, Penn State’s freshman “played so fine, don’t you agree?” 

Critiquing Lee’s monster day on the ground – the highest single-game rushing output by a PSU true freshman since some dude named Saquon Barkley torched Ohio State for 195 yards (200+ if not for some bogus hold that erased a TD) in The Horseshoe – is low-hanging fruit. So let’s climb a little higher and give Johnson a gold-star sticker before anyone else. 

Standing 198 centimeters tall and weighing nearly 114 kilograms, the prized recruit from Windsor, Ontario – home of FTB’s 1996 Super Chexx Bubble Hockey Tournament at Don Cherry’s – flexed (politely) on Michigan’s defenders as a run blocker and displayed a nasty streak 99 percent of true freshman don’t possess and never acquire. I mean, watch No. 84 on these three plays!

Play 1 – Pancakes 3rd-Team All-Big Ten and fifth year senior (aka Grown Man) Carlo Kemp, paving a clear path for Lee to gobble up 7 yards. 

Play 2 – Johnson seals the edge and drives a Michigan DB 5 yards downfield, enabling Levis to get the first down. 

Play 3 – No hole, no push where the play is designed, but Johnson’s never-quit 8-yard downfield escort of the backside contain corner (sowry) clears a path for Lee’s improv bounce to the edge for big yards. 

As much as we all love Pat Freiermuth, and appreciate his commitment to suit up this season when others (cough, Micah, cough) didn’t, he never developed into a consistent blocker – a deficiency that will likely relegate Baby Gronk to the late 1st Round/early 2nd Round of the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Johnson – albeit in a microscopic sample size – already appears to be what Freiermuth never was (and likely never will be) when it comes to blocking. And he’s only 19 years old! Now whether Johnson can catch the ball in traffic, create mismatches in coverage, and run crisp routes…well, IDK but I sure hope Ciarrocca lets us find out!  Even if Johnson’s pass-catching ability only reaches 75 percent of Freiermuth, he’ll still be a treasured and vital piece in Ciarrocca’s offense. 

Now, Keyvone Lee. 

Around the Twitterverse, a lot of Penn State fans threw out yesteryear comps for the newly-minted Big Ten Freshman of the Week. Tony Hunt is a popular pick. I also saw an Evan Royster, too. Here’s the thing: I think any comparison made this year is premature, because I think (or hope) Lee will look completely reshaped nine months from now if there’s any semblance of normalcy in the 2021 off-season S&C program. 

Remember, Lee wasn’t an early enrollee, so he’s only been privy to regimented nutrition and training for a few months – and who knows how “normal” all that even is because of COVID precautions. If Lee drops 20 pounds of bad weight (he looks too heavy) and gains 10 pounds of good weight, perhaps he’s more of a Miles Sanders comp – a shifty, patient runner who can catch the ball and flash above-average (not elite) speed  — in 2021. 

Should Lee’s physical exterior ever match his supreme intellectual and instinctual interior (not sure that makes sense, but let it slide and go with me here) he’ll be the next GREAT Penn State running back. Twice on Penn State’s final touchdown drive, Lee found yards when there were none.

Zone read. Michigan DE doesn’t crash, so Clifford gives. Problem is, 70-Juice Scruggs can’t get to the second-level. That leaves Michigan senior linebacker Josh Ross free to fill the hole. There’s nothing here. BUT instead of lowering his head and getting a yard, Lee quickly shuffles to the right where the Michigan corner overran the play, and 71-Will Fries occupies Wolverines linebacker Adam Shibley juuust long enough for ‘Florida Man’ to slip through the back gate for 24 yards.

Two plays, third Lee run in a row:

Tight quarters, slim run alleys, but Lee’s patience makes it work –specifically, waiting for 53-Rasheed Walker to clear the LB run blitzer and 70-Juice Scruggs to get a 2-for-1 block on 15-Chris Hinton and read defender 91-Taylor Upshaw.  

Wrapping up the Subsitution Section that somehow morphed into a two-player spotlight segment…at wide receiver 85-Rudy Lutz was targeted 20 percent of his total snaps (3 of 15) while heralded freshman 13- KeAndre Lambert-Smith didn’t see a pass flung his way in 30 plays. 10-TJ Jones and 6-Cam Sullivan-Brown saw limited spot duty (less than 10 snaps) and also were not targeted. 

Same starting OL for the third game in a row. When CJ Thorpe entered the game, Will Fries bounced from RG to RT. 62-Michal Menet (who Mike Golic called “Men-AY,” on-air like the fifth year senior was an air-boat Swamp Tour operator) and 53-Walker played the entire game at center and left tackle, respectively. 

RUN/PASS BLOCKING

No nitpicking this HINDSIGHT. 

When you gain 250+ yards rushing (sans kneels) with your preseason 4th and 5th-string backs, allow one sack against a traditional power loaded with on-paper talent, and play 79 snaps of penalty-free football (the false start was on the RB) then yeah, it’s time to pile on the praise – especially a week removed from bottoming out vs. Iowa. 

Penn State established its dominance on the first drive of the game – scoring for only the second time this season (Indiana) – punctuated with two coaching clinic-worthy run plays. 

Clifford reads the WDE (Paye) and correctly gives the ball to Lee. Walker (+.5) gets to the second level and blocks 12-Ross. 73-Mike Miranda (a popular HINDSIGHT target this season) gets EXCELLENT push vs. 15-Hinton. Not only that, but Miranda (+1) stays engaged and maintains balance when Hinton tries to toss him – keeping his helmet in Hinton’s left armpit, thus letting Lee scoot through untouched. 

Next play, more hat-on-hat mastery leads to a walk-in TD.

79-Caedan Wallace (+1) handles Kemp while Menet and Will Fries execute a double-team block on the Michigan DT – cracking open a huge running lane as all three linemen have their backsides facing one another when Lee passes through.  Our boy Johnson overpowers the Michigan DB. The only guy who has a chance to make a tackle is Michigan safety 30-Dax Hill – but watch his eyes right before the snap…he’s looking at the Trips alignment of this RPO! By the time his head turns back to the action, the play is in motion, and it’s too late.  

You’ll never guess our highest-graded lineman this week…give up? It’s 69- CJ Thorpe. The talented but out-of-sorts offensive guard from Pittsburgh who lost his starting job Week 4 and further buried himself with penalties and poor play as a backup, finally put it all together vs. Michigan. Gotta feel good for him. 

Thorpe played two drives (just TWO) the whole game, but saw 23 snaps because both those drives concluded in the end zone.

Sweet run by Cliff, right? Well, right…but what sprung it? Thorpe’s pancake of Michigan DT 67-Jess Speight, which allows Clifford untouched second-level access. 

QUARTERBACK PLAY

We’re back to one table. 

*Chart Doesn’t Include 5 Throwaways/Batted Balls/Spikes, but does include throws negated by Penalties.

Not bad, huh?

Doesn’t hurt that Ciarrocca tailored the playbook to accentuate Clifford’s strengths — zero progression, predetermined throws — and cut out aspects that got the Cincy native benched, namely longer-developing pass concepts. 

Example of Good Clifford.

As you saw above, and as you’ll see below, Clifford looked a lot more fluid, calm and decisive making RPO reads and throws. Here 30-Dax Hill plays outside leverage against 85-Lutz in the slot. After the snap, the defender bails more to the outside, giving Lutz the easy slant…Lutz looks like he’s planning to give a move to create separation, but once he sees Hill two or three yards outside the hash, he stutters quick and turns his back to the wing-helmeted DB.

More Good Clifford:

The Clifford play that pleased us most – and perhaps hints that the light bulb finally turned on for QB1-turned-QB2-now-QB1 is this decision to calmly step up and find an uncluttered passing window vs. a 3-man rush and stick this dart on Washington after the initial routes failed to get open. 

Watch Clifford pre-throw. He’s under control. His eyes don’t drop. He’s always ready to throw. He’s not hyper or panicked. Go ahead and rush three. Clifford, (well THIS Clifford, anyway) will make Michigan DC/Your Neighbor Who Loves His Lawn Too Much Don Brown pay and give his receivers time to ad-lib.

Finally, stop with the nonsense about Levis being a better runner than Clifford. He’s not, OK? Will Levis isn’t escaping this mess below (see video). Blow me up in the comments section if you must, but right now it’s pretty obvious Clifford is the most elusive open-field runner at QB since Michael Robinson. Other than Trace McSorley’s insane TD vs. Michigan in 2017, name his runs that are better than Clifford’s TD in this game, Clifford’s TD vs. Indiana and this escape:

To clarify: McSorley was/is WAY better than Clifford at avoiding pressure behind the LOS (thinking about that 2017 3rd down escape against Nick Bosa in Columbus, the 2016 spin vs. Rutgers, and that Rose Bowl rollout to Godwin in the first half). But Clifford has some elite wiggle in space. 

PASS CATCHING

*Chart doesn’t include uncatchable passes

Parker Washington did a lot of nice things after the catch (although he needs to know When to say When and get down) and posted career highs in receptions and yards, but I want to end our first post-win HINDSIGHT praising 5-Jahan Dotson’s ability to rise up during two CRITICAL 4th Quarter 3rd downs. 

Here’s it’s 3rd and 3 on Penn State’s 32-yard-line. Good guys are up 20-17. 

What is this route? It’s like a Sluggo with a slant chaser – a Sluggoant? Whatever it is, it’s nasty and totally befuddles the Michigan DB. Credit the O-Line for keeping Clifford clean and letting this slow-as-sin route fully develop.

Here’s the second 3rd down conversion – this one a 3rd and 7. Penn State in the Puke Green Zone (Red Zone to every other team). 

Through five games, Penn State has put a TON of Red Zone crossing routes on tape, and we’re guessing this tendency was talked about at length in Michigan’s secondary meetings this week…because Michigan DB 27-Hunter Reynolds JUMPS the crosser to Dotson in a finger-snap. But Ciarrocca breaks tendency and has Dotson run a Whip Route – baiting Reynolds out of position as Dotson pivots and boxes out the crashing DB. 

Clifford’s pass is intentionally low – to counter the defender’s reach – but not too low that Dotson has to go to the ground before getting the necessary yardage to keep the drive alive. 

Great play design. Elite execution. Coffee for everybody!