FTB Goes Bowling For Dollars, Part 1

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Introduction

Ah, bowl season…

…that magical time of year when we’re once again reminded that Montgomery, Alabama has a tourism bureau (for some reason), Tropical Smoothie Café exists (somewhere), and that middle-aged men shouldn’t wear bright blazers (ever).

It’s the unrivaled pageantry of your body congealing to the contours of your crumb-crusted barcalounger — brain numb, eyeballs dry and red from the lost, hollow hours spent watching mediocre football, sparse crowds, and soulless corporate mascots – wondering why you’ve never taken the wife and kids to Shreveport for a weekend? The guilt of depriving loved ones from experiencing a town with “So Much to Explore!” weighs on your conscience like a lead vest. Sips of warm, domestic beer briefly chase away the pain while Kent State’s walk-on right guard holds four fingers aloft as the third quarter expires. Inexplicably, you hold four fingers up, too.

(Stares into nothingness)

Anyway, like I said, it’s Bowl Season! 42 games! 42 excuses to put off all our adult responsibilities! 42 excuses to gamble!

With that said, we’ll preview each and every bowl matchup using our WAR model to forecast straight-up winners, winners Against The Spread, and Over/Under. Regular readers of the blog might remember us featuring this same WAR prediction model back in August for our Penn State game-by-game predictions. In that piece, we wrote:

Last year, I developed a system (WAR) that allows us to estimate a team’s offensive, defensive, and overall efficiencies based on previous game-by-game performances. For the most part, it’s a useful retrospective tool that can also effectively predict the outcome of future games. In some unpublished work, I used this method to predict the entire 2019-2020 bowl calendar. Out of 39 games, my system correctly picked 31 straight-up winners (79%), 25 winners against-the-spread (64%), and 20 O/U (51%). Yes, it was a really small sample size, but that trial run showed there’s some potential in this system as a prognosticating tool.

So, for the first time, we’re putting this system to the test publicly. Wish us luck!

But the game is only part of the bowl experience, right? The location and the history of the city/state matter, too. When you go to a bowl it’s great to experience the culture. Therefore, this year, we are going to identify the best musical artist to come out of each bowl location. Whether the person/band was born in a place or is known to “come from” a place, we will explore the very best of music across the USA.

Methodology

For the bowl predictions, I took the lines from CBS Sports. These lines are from December 8^th, so there’s likely to be some shifting. Finally, I didn’t use the WAR model exactly as described in the article above. I adjusted the ratings for a strength-of-schedule (SOS) by conference using a combination of my own data and realtimerpi.com data.

In the tables for each game we have the teams, gambling data, and other general info for the bowl. Then, the table features my offensive, defensive, and overall efficiency ratings and rankings. For offense and overall efficiency, higher is better. For defense, lower is better. Then, in the bottom-center are the predicted score and winner (outright and ATS) and along with projected total points versus O/U number.

To pick the musicians, I searched “best musical artist from [CITY]” and looked on ranker.com. I didn’t always take the top hit there. I mean, I feel like I have a better than average appreciation and knowledge for what’s good in music so in some cases I took some liberties. The moral of the story – if you disagree with the pick, blame ranker.com. If you agree, it was my pick. I have also added the top Spotify song for the artist and the number of Spotify steams so you can check them out.

Buckle up, get a cup of coffee, glass of wine, beer, cocktail, or other “medication” as there are far more games than you realize and you’re going to be here awhile. Here we go!

Bowl Preview

The Game: The MTSU Blue Raiders (6-6) are making their first bowl appearance since 2018 and take on a Toledo Rockets (7-5) team that finished 3^rd in the MAC West. Four of the five Toledo losses came by a total of 11 points (including a 3-point loss against Notre Dame.) MTSU on the other hand has been feast (5 of 6 wins by double digits) or famine (4 of 5 losses by 10+). Based on the ratings Toledo is a very solid team and brings a well-balanced offense and defense. The prediction says Rockets by 6 with MTSU getting the cover.

The Music: Why are we here? Are we alone in the universe? Who let the dogs out? These are some of the most important existential questions of our time, although it wasn’t apparent that the latter needed to be answered until the “Baha Men” released their chart-topping hit in 2000. The Bahamian music scene wasn’t as strong as I expected but it is the source of one of the catchiest tunes in recent memory. Top Spotify Hit: Who Let the Dogs Out (84 million)

The Game: According to my calculations, the Northern Illinois Huskies (9-4, MAC Champions) rank as the worst team to make a bowl game. Just look at their dreadful defensive efficiency and overall efficiency rankings. The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (10-2) have their 2^nd straight 10-win season and spent most of 2021 ranked. They bring a top-20 offense that’s averaging the 6^th most PPG against FBS competition. That offense will put up points against the NIU defense, which allows 34.3 PPG. Can NIU keep surviving or does their run end? Give me CCU – big.

The Music: Orlando is the hub of boy bands and (unfortunately). So instead, I want to highlight one of more underrated rock bands of the late 90s and early 2000s – Matchbox 20. Releasing 3 platinum and 1 gold album between 1996 and 2012 they captured the coming-of-age angst of Generation X. Top Spotify Hit: Push (187 million)

The Game: The Appalachian State (10-3) versus Western Kentucky (8-5) game matches two teams that made it to their respective conference championship games but came up short. This appears to be a strong early December bowl game though, matching a very good defense from App State versus a top-10 offense from the Hilltoppers. The prediction is that App State wins and covers. The juicy bet, though, might be the O/U. Only one App State game has gone over 68 points all season (8 WKU games have gone over 68; one hit 68). This should be a good one.

The Music: Is Mr. Worldwide (aka Pitbull) from Boca Raton? No, he’s from Miami but that’s close enough for me. Beyond endorsing every product known to man, Pitbull has taken the sounds of the Miami club scene globally. Pitbull has collaborated with everyone from J Lo and Kesha to Blake Shelton to Akon. That’s quite a diverse cast. And that’s why he’s Mr. Worldwide. Top Spotify Hit: Timber feat. Kesha (898 million)

The Game: This is the first prediction that I hate, personally. Not sure why the formula/model likes UTEP so much? It’s great that UTEP (7-5) is making its first bowl appearance since 2014 but I’m not sure how they hang with a Fresno State (9-3) team that gave Oregon all they could handle, lost by 3 at Hawaii, and only had one bad loss (40-14 against Boise State). Fresno State brings its usual strong and tough defense that should beat up on the UTEP offense (ranked 106^th nationally and producing only 24 PPG – slightly ahead of Iowa…). Still, the computer says take UTEP and the points

The Music: When you think of John Denver you probably think of West Virginia. But John Denver, born Henry John Deutschendorf Jr., hails from Roswell, New Mexico and grew into one of the greatest folk singers of the late 20^th century. During the 1970s he had 5 songs that reached at least #2 on the US charts. Sadly, his life was cut short when he died in a plane crash in 1997 after an illustrious career as a musician and humanitarian. Top Spotify Hit: Take Me Home, Country Roads (394 million)

The Game: BYU – the No. 13 team in the CFP rankings — finished the season 10-2 with wins against Utah, Arizona State, and Virginia. Not surprisingly, the Cougars are predicted to win and cover over the UAB Blazers (8-4) who hold losses against Rice, Liberty, and Georgia by 49? The line being only -7 for BYU is closer than one might expect considering BYU boasts a Top 15 offense and will be facing a below average defense while being fairly evenly matched on the other side of the ball. I would expect the Cougars to cover this one easily.

The Music: Ferriday, Louisiana is about a 3-hour drive from Shreveport, but contemporary rock and roll may not exist without contributions from Ferriday’s favorite son – Jerry Lee Lewis. Having recorded 40 studio albums and 77 singles (12 that reached #1), Lewis changed how people viewed the piano – transforming it from a classical instrument to a rock one. Top Spotify Hit: Great Balls of Fire (110 million)

The Game: Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liiiiberty. Now that that insurance jingle is stuck in your head, let’s talk about the Flames. Liberty has a distinct advantage on both side of the ball with top-30 units on offense and defense. They’re going against the 20^th worst defense in FBS by my calculation. Flames by a lot.

The Music: Bowl season means Christmas and Christmas means music. There is almost no more recognizable voice (maybe Mariah) during the holiday season than Montgomery, Alabama’s own Nat King Cole. Nobody reading this has ever eaten a chestnut but 100% of you know the line from his most famous song. Aside from his music, he appeared in more than 30 movies and even had his own TV show in the mid-1950s. Top Spotify Hit: The Christmas Song (455 million)

The Game: The Utah State Aggies (10-3, MWC Champs) have a real chance at upsetting the 7-5 Oregon State Beavers. Sure, OSU West is favored by a touchdown and does bring in a strong offense that is scoring 32 PPG (32^nd in FBS). But the Aggies are hot winning 7 of their last 8 including a 46-13 MWC Championship stomping of SDSU. Our model spit out a one-point victory for Oregon State but an Aggies outright win wouldn’t surprise us.

The Music: Los Angeles means show business and the list of influential musicians to come from LA is long – Beach Boys, Metallica, CCR, The Chili Peppers, Tupac, and many mid-century stars. But I’ll go with the group who has a billionaire in it, had a movie made about them, and has produced literally dozens of future stars. N.W.A. changed the face of rap with their release of “Straight Outta Compton” in 1988 and key members Ice Cube, Eazy-E, and Dr. Dre all had successful solo careers. Dr. Dre especially had a laundry list of 90’s, 2000’s, and 2010’s artists that he discovered and launched including: Snoop Dogg, Nate Dogg & Warren G, Eminem, 50 Cent, Xzibit, and Kendrick Lamar. All totaled N.W.A. is responsible for piles of gold and platinum records and the continuing evolution of rap. Top Spotify Hit: Straight Outta Compton (241 million)

The Game: The R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl takes place 2 hours east of Lafayette, so expect a partisan Ragin Cajuns (12-1, Sun Belt Champions) crowd when they face off with the Thundering Herd of Marshall (7-5) led by former Penn State assistant Charles Huff. ULL’s sole loss was in the first game of the season against Texas. Despite that bad loss, they’ve relied on a stout defense to win their next 12 games. Marshall looks decent in the stats and 4 of their 5 losses were by one score. However, they’re coming off a 32-point loss to Western Kentucky. Can they rebound to hang with a Ragin Cajun team that’s hotter than a plate of Louisiana food?

The Music: New Orleans has such a rich music history that it’s tough to pick just a couple but we’ll start with the most famous trumpeter in modern history – Louis Armstrong. Known as an innovator in jazz trumpet and evolving into one of the most distinctive vocalists of the era, he is the one jazz musician that virtually everyone knows even as the genre has fallen out of mainstream popularity. All totaled, he has 19 Top 10 hits. Top Spotify Hit: What a Wonderful World (324 million)

The Game: Despite not playing the 2020 season because of COVID, Old Dominion finds itself back in the postseason, facing off against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-6) – a team that rebounded from an opening week loss to UC-Davis of the FCS. Statistically, Tulsa is somewhat better but I don’t think they’re 9.5 points better (and neither does the computer). Pulling for former PSU OC Ricky Rahne to get ODU its 2^nd bowl win in program history.

The Music: I’m sure there is some Low Country artist that I’m missing but for South Carolina, I’m going with Hootie and the Blowfish. Hootie isn’t quite country or rock or pop, but they’re also all of those things at the same time. Their first two albums (“Cracked Rear View” and “Fairweather Johnson”) reached #1 in the US in the mid-90’s. After a brief hiatus, which allowed vocalist Darius Rucker to record his own version of “Wagon Wheel”, a song you all know, Hootie resumed touring as a group in 2018. For what it’s worth, you can hear “Wagon Wheel” live if you go see them in concert. Top Spotify Hit: Only Wanna Be with You (105 million)

The Game: If it wasn’t for NIU, the Kent State Golden Flashes (7-6) would be the worst bowl team according to my ratings and yet they too won their division in the MAC. At least they, unlike NIU, were predicted to win their division in the preseason. They bring the 123^rd rated defense allowing 37.2 PPG (120^th) west to face Wyoming (6-6) – losers of six of their final eight. Despite ranking 104^th in efficiency, the Cowboys offense somehow grades out better than Kent State’s defense. I’ve got the Cowboys covering.

The Music: Idaho got me. I have no idea who any of the top groups are from the Gem State. So, we’re going to go with Built to Spill, an indie rock band formed in 1992. They apparently (according to Wikipedia) are known for their “long and often complex song structures.” So, check ‘em out. Top Spotify Hit: Carry the Zero (23 million)

The Game: I like this game. With UT-San Antonio (12-1, C-USA Champ) you’ve got the best version of University of Texas football in 2021 (ahead of El Paso and Austin). Likewise, San Diego State (11-2) may be the best team in California. Both boast P5 wins in 2021 – UTSA over Illinois; SDSU over Arizona and Utah. SDSU has one of the nation’s best defenses (27^th overall; 9^th in points allowed per drive) and will go against a UTSA squad that has a top-50ish offense that averages the 18^th most points per drive. This game will come down to whether the SDSU offense can score against an average UTSA defense. I like UTSA to continue the best season in their short history and getting to 13(!) wins.

The Music: There are LOTS of artists who come from the DFW area and defining “best” is very tough. We’ll start our tour of North Texas with one of the top 12 guitarists of all time (according to Rolling Stone) – Stevie Ray Vaughan. Reaching national prominence with his band “Double Trouble” and working with the likes of David Bowie and Stevie Wonder, Vaughan was a generational talent who was lost to a helicopter crash at only 35 years old. Top Spotify Hit: Pride and Joy (112 million)

The Game: The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl features an armed force – the Black Knights of the USMC (i.e. Army – 8-3) against the Mizzou Tigers (6-6). Army is the #2 rush offense in the country (289 YPG) and Missouri is the #120 rush defense (230 YPG allowed). The Black Knights run for 300+ and cover.

The Music: Next, we move to Fort Worth and recognize the original American Idol – Kelly Clarkson. She won Fox’s singing competition in 2002 and is easily the most successful alumnus of the made for TV talent show. She has sold over 25 million albums and 45 million singles globally. Her first #1, “A Moment Like This” in 2002 was followed by Top 10 songs in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2015. Top Spotify Hit: Because of You (463 million)

The Game: What’s better than one bowl game in Frisco? How about two! The inaugural FFC doesn’t have the same clout as the Cotton Bowl but gives us a battle between Miami (6-6) – the Ohio one, against a bowl eligible team from northern Texas that isn’t TCU or UT-Austin – The North Texas Mean Green (6-6). These teams are quite evenly matched and are both ranked between 70 and 90 in all the stats. North Texas boasts a win against previously unbeaten UTSA while Miami’s best win is over Central Michigan so there, the edge goes to UNT.

The Music: If the NCAA can make up bowl games out of thin air, I can make my own rules for the music selection, and I can include one of my favorite bands – System of a Down – who did have at least one concert in Dallas (in 2005). They hail from Los Angeles and bring with them some of the most socially conscious lyrics in the genre. Their songs swing between very aggressive instrumentals mixed with one of the best rock voices of the 21^st century in Serj Tankian. Top Spotify Hit: “Chop Suey” (738 million)

The Game: We have the battle of I-75 pitting the Florida Gators (6-6) against the original G5 (OG5, if you will) playoff threat in UCF (8-4). The Gators are better on both sides of the ball and are better than their record indicates. UCF has a quality win over Boise State but lost by 64 points combined to Cincy and SMU. Here’s one where I think the model gives a bit too much credit to UCF. Motivation will play a big role here, though. Will the Gators have any?

The Music: Back to Florida, and while the game is in Tampa, we are going to highlight Gloria Estefan who was born in Havana and immigrated to Florida when she was two years old. She, both as a solo artist and with Miami Sound Machine, had several chart-topping singles and albums in the US and internationally. Her life and career were nearly cut short because of a tour bus crash in 1990 outside of Scranton, PA. Doctors expected her to be paralyzed, but she fought back to overcome her injuries and continue her storied career. Top Spotify Hit: Conga (156 million)

The Game: The Memphis Tigers (6-6), Penn State’s last bowl opponent, travel off the mainland to take on the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (6-7). Hawai’i is 4-2 at home (losses to San Diego State and San Jose State) and 2-5 on the road. It will be interesting to see how the travel affects Memphis, which boasts an offense that’s slightly above average going against one of the worst defenses in FBS when adjusted for schedule. The 8:00 eastern start benefits Memphis.

The Music: There were a few options to represent the Aloha State but I’m going with Israel Kamakawiwo’ole (aka Bruddah IZ or IZ) who, in the mid-1970’s through the early 1990’s, blended traditional Hawaiian ukulele with more mainstream genres. He was named “The Voice of Hawaii” by NPR in 2010 and is regarded as the best Hawaiian musician ever. His rendition of “Over the Rainbow” is easily his best-known song but alone doesn’t do justice to his breadth and influence as a musician. IZ was a giant of a man weighing as much as 750 pounds at one point and as such, suffered from severe health issues causing his death at the age of only 38. Top Spotify Hit: Over the Rainbow (230 million)

 

The Game: Two recent ‘Pay-to-get-Pounded’ Penn State out-of-conference opponents that lost 100-13 combined — Ball State (2021) and Georgia State (2017) square off in the TaxAct Camellia Bowl where Ball State. After winning the MAC in 2020, and returning 20 starters, many expected Ball State vie for an undefeated season. Well, that didn’t happen. Instead, the Cardinals struggled to get bowl eligible and had the #108 scoring offense in FBS in 2021 (down from #22 in 2020). Georgia State is making its 4^th bowl appearance in five years and own a BIG win over Coastal Carolina. This looks to be a fairly evenly matched game by the statistical measures, so expect the outcome to be inside the line number.

The Music: I’m not really a country music fan but one name that nearly everyone knows in country is Hank Williams Sr. Heck, he’s got his own holiday in the state of Alabama. The father of the “Are You Ready For Some Football?” guy, Williams had 35 singles that were Top 10 Country hits and 11 that reached #1. Williams was ranked #74 in the 100 Greatest Artists of All-Time (2004 Rolling Stone) list. Top Spotify Hit: Hey, Good Lookin’ (32 million)