Film at 11: Wisconsin Offense

Editor’s Note: Each week during the season, the FTB Staff will release its scouting report on Penn State’s upcoming opponent. Normally, these blogs will be posted at 11 a.m. EST Thursday and Friday…but we’re a little premature this week. Hey, happens to the best of us. 

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For 8 months, the 2020 Duke’s Mayo Bowl – a game whose live TV viewership couldn’t match the swarm of clicks the destruction of its trophy received on Instagram – has been the unwanted relative sitting in my DVR.

Countless times my Significant Other has asked, ‘Hey can we get rid of this?’ in order to free up room for episodes of General Hospital or that one show where home renovators are always shocked to find mold. And countless times I’ve replied, “No, we cannot get rid of this. I need it.”  

OK, maybe “countless times” is a tad hyperbolic.  We can all count to two. 

Regardless, the point I’m failing to make is that putting together informative scouts on Penn State’s Week 1 opponents will forever be clunky because you’re using tape that’s collected a lot of digital dust since last season. Guys graduate. Guys transfer. Guys return from injury. Guys move up the depth chart, beating out starters from last season.

And in Wisconsin’s case, guys also can get 2020’d. 

Following a complete dismantling of Illinois in Week 1, Wisconsin’s 2020 campaign hit the skids soon after when a COVID outbreak ripped through the Badgers program.  Initially, six Wisconsin players – including starting quarterback Graham Mertz – tested positive. That number soon ballooned to 16, then 27 active cases within 10 days, leaving the Badgers no choice but to cancel the Nebraska and Purdue games while totally shutting down all face-to-face football operations. 

Three weeks later, quarantine ended and the Badgers got back to business, although “normalcy” never fully returned. Wisconsin AD/Big Ten Shadow Commissioner Barry Alvarez OK’d a tweet on Nov. 9 declaring, “We feel confident that we have a handle  on the situation,” even though the info-box data attached in that same tweet completely contradicted that sentiment .

Zero positive cases in 5 of the last 6  days? Hmm, guess that’s one way to spin it. Or, from the sanitized glass-half-empty POV, it’s also accurate (probably) to type that Wisconsin had players/staff test positive twice that week (or else the tweet would have read, “…6 of the last 7 days”) and at least once in the previous five days (or else it would have read “….five days in a row”). Yes, Wisconsin absolutely curb-stomped Michigan that same week, but it also suffered a wave of injuries, too. The reason? Um, maybe it had a little something to do with the Big Ten’s draconian COVID protocols preventing the Badgers’ entire roster from doing anything physical for 16 days! Start-stop-start can’t be good for the body. 

Just how disjointed was Wisconsin’s 2020 season, you ask?

Well, of the 39 offensive players who saw action last year, only 8 Badgers appeared in every contest of Wisconsin’s truncated 7-game slate. Mertz and Jake Ferguson were the only Wisconsin starters to line up at the same position – quarterback and tight end, respectively – for the entire season. 

Because of all that disruption, as weird as this reads, we have absolutely no clue what to expect from the Big Ten’s most predictable offense. Wisconsin is Wisconsin and will Wisconsin now and forever, but projecting the potency of this particular 2021 vintage is really a guess, at best. 

But, heck, we’ll give it a shot.   

For this scout, we examined the Badgers 42-28 triumph over Wake Forest in the ‘Grandfatty of Them All,’ the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, and Wisconsin’s post-quarantine clobbering of Michigan.

Starters

 

Formations  

For the most part, especially on standard downs, Wisconsin operates out of Ace – a single set back formation that affords positional flexibility congruent to a team’s personnel strength. And because much of Wisconsin’s wide-neck, thick-ankle roster looks like it flew here from 1955 on Doc Brown’s DeLorean, the Badgers lean on plenty of two tight end or tight end/fullback looks and with receivers bunched near the ball, thus creating extra run gaps defenders must honor. 

As modern defenses trend smaller and faster, tailored to cloak homogenous spread attacks sideline-to-sideline and goalpost-to-goalpost, Wisconsin’s “Fat Guys in a Photobooth” formations pile heaps of stress on defensive coordinators and the defenders they coach. Not saying preparing for Wisconsin rivals gameplanning against a triple-option Service Academy, but it does require a lot of reprogramming. Uber-talented, uber-twitchy 4- and 5-star defenders accustomed to flying around and making plays in space must suddenly throttle down, stay disciplined and maintain gap integrity for four slog-filled quarters…which is virtually impossible.

To borrow a phrase from Coach Codutti, our YouTube film study guy, the nanosecond Wisconsin catches two or more defenders “peeing in the same Coke bottle” – aka filling the same gap — you’re toast. Behold, a fullback in its unnatural habitat!

Credit where credit is due, Wake Forest did a superb job staying gap sound throughout its condiment-sponsored clash with the Badgers, limiting Wisconsin to 122 rush yards — roughly 50 short of Wisconsin’s season average (171.7). Problem is, even when you do your job and fill your gap, the battle isn’t won. Wisconsin loves to run power and pull the center, guards, tackles and tight ends, all of whom are eager to bump defenders out of their assigned gap and into another – evidenced here when 62-Cormac Sampson (a backup guard on this week’s depth chart) absolutely ejects All-ACC linebacker 5-Ryan Smenda Jr., clearing a hole for Wisconsin’s velocity-deficient then-senior running back 37-Garrett Groshek.    

Typically, after Wisconsin has dealt body-blow after body-blow in the run game, defenders cheat and shoot gaps prematurely in hopes of beating linemen to the spot…which leaves them susceptible to play action shots downfield.

In addition to Ace, Wisconsin occasionally lines up in the I-Formation on standard downs and sprinkles in Shotgun and Pistol looks when it’s 3rd and long. Once the ball gets inside the 3-yard-line, Paul Chryst and Co. love tipping the scales and cramming as many Polish, Slavic and German jersey nameplates as possible into this beefy inverted wishbone (see video below). 

Warning: All you silver-haired Penn State message-board posters with a fullback fetish reading this, take a second and lock the door because this next video montage is so titillating, so explicit, that it’ll be banned on Only Fans a month from now. 

Oh, and when Wisconsin wants to get wild, they’ll throw out of this formation, too.  

Damn, that’s hot. 

Philosophy

Pure uncut Bolivian Neanderball. 

During the Paul Chryst Era, Wisconsin has captured the Big Ten West crown three times – 2016, 2017 and 2019. And in each of those championship-ish seasons, the Badgers offense finished Top 15 nationally in run-to-pass ratio – 62 percent runs in 2019, 64.4 percent runs in 2017, and 65.5 percent running plays in 2016. 

Last season, Wisconsin wandered slightly off script and posted a very un-Wisconsin-like 57.8 percent run-to-pass ratio – which, for context, still tilts very, very run-heavy, but not quite as knuckle-dragging as years past.  

Therefore, there’s an new (old) sweatshirt-wearing Sheriff in Madtown.  

After bequeathing play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph for seven forgettable games last year, Chryst told the media in February that he’s snatching those duties back so that he – and only he – can make those tough choices of whether to run left, run right, or run up the middle.

Media consensus from Wisconsin’s fall camp – which was far more open and transparent than Penn State’s practices, BTW – hints that redshirt freshman 8-Jalen Berger and Clemson transfer 6-Chez Mellusi will split carries in Chryst’s Tecmo Bowl offense since neither rusher stood apart from the other in August. 

On film, Berger and Mellusi are the two Spider Man (Men?) pointing meme – suitable-not-special, wiggle-less backs capable of finding a hole when one’s present and incapable of doing anything but running up their blockers’ backs or bouncing wide into a TFL when a hole isn’t present. In the passing game, both guys proved they can catch, but Berger’s 4-cylinder GEO Prizm engine can’t reach the top-end speeds needed to create mismatches downfield, evidenced here:

And though we can’t prove it, we’re assuming Mellusi doesn’t possess it, either…or else he’d still be at Clemson. 

Because we have a bunch of Clemson All-22 film burning a hole in our hard drive, here’s an unwanted montage of Mellusi runs from the Degenerate Over/Under Bettors Witching Hour, a.k.a. garbage time, last year.

Lion Tamers

84-JAKE FERGUSON, TIGHT END: If Pat Freiermuth and Mike Gesicki had a baby who grew up to be a better blocker than either of his two dads, he’d be Jake Ferguson.

Despite running a (reported) 4.73 40 in high school and jumping a (reported) 35-inch vertical, Barry Alvarez’s grandson (seriously, he is) was just a 3-Star composite recruit on 247Sports as a senior. That modest prep profile landed Ferguson a handful of offers from Ethanol Empire also-rans like Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State, and Northern Illinois — scholarships that he was never going to accept because HE’S BARRY ALVAREZ’S GRANDSON!

After redshirting in 2017, Ferguson has cemented himself as a dependable/dangerous target ever since, appearing in 34 consecutive contests and tallying at least one reception in each of those games. Barring catastrophe, Ferguson will haul in his 100th career reception on Saturday (he’s currently at 99). 

Like Gesicki, Ferguson is a faster-than-he-looks long strider with deceptive straight-line speed. With that noted, what’s strange is that Ferguson might be more dangerous when his feet come off the ground rather than stay on the ground. 

When the ball is in the air, it belongs to Ferguson. Snatch-y hands. Elite aerial contortion and body control. Strength to survive the ground. 

I mean, doesn’t this…

…look similar to this?

A few 2022 NFL Draft prospect reports from websites we’ve never heard of knocked Ferguson for his post-catch prowess…or lack thereof, insisting he had “heavy feet.” Heavy feet? Ferguson? Scroll up 1,500 words or so and re-watch that play action deep ball to Ferguson clip, the one he punctuates with a badass Jordan logo leap. That dude has heavy feet?

Or what about this play – a screen that Wake Forest LB and Wild West sheriff 12-Luke Masterson diagnoses perfectly and appears primed to blow up until Ferguson subtly sashays out of trouble. Masterson loses his base. Ferguson rumbles for 21 yards, refusing to go down. 

Feet don’t look too heavy there. 

Now if we’re being fair and shelving our mancrush for a paragraph, Ferguson isn’t a Rembrandt of a route-runner and doesn’t easily separate from man coverage on obvious passing downs. 

And yeah, sure, Ferguson doesn’t move two-legged mountains off the line of scrimmage as a blocker, though he’s certainly effective — like a bur stuck on a wool sweater — once he gets his hands on you. So no, he’s not perfect. But he’s the top offensive threat Penn State must neutralize if it hopes to pull off an upset…if for no other reason, Ferguson’s the lone pass catcher that played enough snaps in 2020 to develop a report with Mertz. 

According to PFF, Mertz targeted Wisconsin’s 2021 starting receivers – 3-Kendric Pryor and 7-Danny Davis III – just 20 times last season.

60-LOGAN BRUSS, RIGHT TACKLE: Surprise! A lineman!

After starting 5 of 6 games at right guard in 2020, Bruss (assuming he’s healthy) moves back to right tackle on Saturday, a spot he manned for all of 2019. In 434 career pass protections at RT, Bruss has allowed one (1!) sack and that was to former Ohio State game-wrecker Chase Young….soooo, come on. He’s pretty darn good. If Penn State’s green defensive ends even sniff Mertz while working against Bruss consider it a win. 

NFL scouts love Bruss’ short-area explosiveness (which is why many project him as an interior lineman on Sundays) but, man, what about the athleticism he consistently flashes at 319 pounds?

Here’s Bruss (60, right guard) going full Bulls on Parade, shielding Michigan LB 12-Josh Ross 10+ yards downfield.

And here’s Bruss  (60, right guard) picking up a BOGO block backside at the LOS and  second level.

Finally, here’s Bruss pulling and sealing a 10-foot wide hole on a touchdown run.

Red Flags (Problem Areas)

5-GRAHAM MERTZ, QUARTERBACK

On June 28, 2021, Graham Mertz ushered in the long overdue NIL era of college athletics with an 8-second video featuring a 26-year-old rap song used to unveil a trademark logo that really, really resembles the already-existing trademark logo of Guerilla Games, a video game company.    

Coming soon… pic.twitter.com/XDhapgrRrr

— Graham Mertz (@GrahamMertz5) June 28, 2021

Dope. 

Speaking of resemblances, guess whose strengths, weaknesses, and PTSD-triggering  WTF moments Mertz’s game reminds us a lot of…our boy Sean Clifford! Tomorrow, when we test your attention span once again with thousands of words on Wisconsin’s defense, we’ll slap the ‘Red Ring of Shame’ around Clifford in our starting lineup diagram. Today, though, it’s Mertz’s turn. 

Whereas Clifford’s up-and-down collegiate career neatly divides between 2019 (mostly ‘up’) and 2020 (mostly ‘down’), Mertz somehow managed to cram an exhilarating/nauseating roller-coaster ride into a singular Shetland season. 

The gobs of fan equity Mertz acquired in his near-perfect, logo-worthy 20 of 21, 248 yard, 5 TD college debut vs. Illinois has shielded the redshirt sophomore from harsh criticism and lingering doubt most would normally cast upon a QB that threw 2 TDs and 5 INTs in the final five games of 2020. Mertz’s 6.4 yards per attempt for the season was more than a full yard less than what Clifford averaged per throw. That’s a pretty damning stat when you consider Clifford was so inconsistent/inaccurate through five games that former PSU OC Kirk Ciarrocca had to child-proof the passing game during the Nittany Lions season-ending win streak.  

Part of the problem, just like it has been for Clifford, was that as COVID and injuries sidelined several starters on the offensive line, Mertz began dropping his eyes, ignoring receiving targets, and abandoning the pocket prematurely. 

3rd and 6. Wake rushes four and drops seven. Mertz wisely climbs the pocket when Badgers guard 74-Michael Furtney ‘opens the gate’ in pass pro…although, to the big guy’s credit, he does a decent job recovering. Doesn’t matter. Let’s focus on Mertz.

As the play develops, the easy/smart read would be to flip the ball out to 37-Groshek in the flat. Groshek has a 10-yard cushion between him and Wake’s 5-Shmenda Jr., the lone defender with a shot (a less than 50 percent shot, we’d guess) at preventing the first down. Or, if Mertz wanted to wear a cape and play hero ball, there’s the low-percentage but makeable deep out to the boundary receiver.

Problem is, Mertz doesn’t spot either option because his eyes drop four yards before he reaches the line of scrimmage. Mertz turns runner. Mertz feels pain. Wisconsin punts. 

Then, there are the mechanical inconsistencies that lead to cover-your-eyes missed layups in the passing game. And when Clifford and Mertz get lazy technically, their passes tend to sail.