Film At 11: West Virginia Offense

Country Roads – plus a late-season AD change and a Teflon $16.7 million buyout – took/kept WVU HC Neal Brown home to the place he probably doesn’t belong for a make-or-break (likely break) final stand. 

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Underneath the iconic roof of a $1.3 billion architectural marvel, seated behind a plastic folding table you can buy for 50 bucks from The Home Depot, West Virginia head coach Neal Brown – fresh off a family beach vacation – drew a strategically-placed, carefully-calculated line in the sand.

I’ll say this at the front,” Brown told the hundred or so sportswriters/Marriott Rewards Point stashers inside Jerry World who picked the Mountaineers to finish last in the conference at Big XII media days back in July. “Appreciate what you all do as far as covering college football and making it one of the top, um, really, sports, in, in, that’s out there.”

After fattening up these figurative hogs with a trough full of pleasantries, Brown began leading them to the verbal slaughter.

“I’ll start with this because I’m sure I’ll be asked about it – upset about the media poll,” Brown continued. “Definitely do not agree with that. The good thing, the positive, is that the media has not been, uh, as far as predicting the Big XII, has not been very successful in recent years, so I think that’s that, uh, bodes well for us.”

Mad-ish as hell, Brown went on to tell these disrespectful scribes that upon receiving word of this meaningless slight his mind immediately flipped to “football mode” (whatever that is). Then, admittedly he got a little sidetracked and spent 90 seconds making the case why the media should reconsider its vote, a meandering argument Brown punctuated by noting the Mountaineers return their punter and long snapper. Eventually, though, Brown rekindled his original Ned Flanders fury, locked eyes with the horde of reporters and, like Joe Namath or former Men’s Wearhouse CEO George Zimmer or deceased Cajun TV chef Justin Wilson, made this tone-setting guarantee.

“Looking forward to proving, proving everybody wrong on that, on that front and, um, we won’t finish there.”

YEAAAAAHHH…wait, what?

That’s it, coach? That’s the guarantee? That you won’t finish 14^th in a 14-team league?

No offense, (meaning we’re totally about to offend) but not even Kool-Aid Man would run through a brick wall following that feckless declaration. Clay Travis’ website for angry divorced dads who wear Under Armor perfectly encapsulated the absurdity of those remarks in an article headlined, ‘WEST VIRIGINIA FOOTBALL COACH NEAL BROWN MAKES FIRM PROMISE TO ACHIEVE BARE MINUMUM WHILE ON HOT SEAT,’ in which writer Grayson Weir typed:

(Brown’s) team might suck – he didn’t rule that out – it just won’t finish last!

 The source of Brown’s child-proofed vitriol, and the motive behind his talking-on-eggshells approach this entire offseason, has EVERYTHING to do with the shaky, uncomfortable, and downright weird employment purgatory he’s trapped in.

See, the AD who hired him and granted Brown an unwarranted contract extension for posting a .500 record through two seasons, got axed last November. The replacement AD – Wren Baker from North Texas — inherited an albatross situation where cutting a $17 million buyout check to send Brown to a farm upstate wasn’t financially prudent. When pressed about what Brown needs to do to keep his job this season, Baker has been purposely double-edged when non-answering – claiming there is no magical win total to reach, which initially sounds like a ‘cool boss’ thing to say until you realize it gives Baker an out to fire Brown even if his squad somehow runs hot this season.

Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, the Mountaineers’ splash hire in 2022, saw the writing on the wall and peaced out for the same gig at AOC-less and Chuck Sizzle-free Purdue – the career equivalent of jumping off the Titanic to go captain the SS Edmund Fitzgerald. Filling the void, Brown retakes the play-calling reins once again, praying that a roster full of square pegs can somehow fit a round-hole faux Air Raid system well enough to beat the odds and keep his job.

To get a better grasp of what Brown has to work with, we scouted three WVU contests from the back half of 2022: the Mountaineers low-scoring upsets of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and their 41-31 setback against playoff participant TCU. Word of warning: Week 1 scouts are clunky because we’re watching dusty, months-old film featuring some players who have transferred, lost their starting roles or switched positions, play for pay now, or as the laughable NCAA PSA says, have gone pro in something other than sports.

With that established…don’t click off. Keep reading. Thanks.

STARTERS

Editor’s Note: To keep these write-ups under the 3,000-word mark, we won’t necessarily have write-ups on every Lion Tamer/Red Ring of Shame player every week. As far as adjusting Penn State players’ standing (potential All-Big Ten, All-American, Red Ring of Shame, etc.), we’ll try to stay away from prisoner-of-the-moment syndrome as best we can. Therefore, we’ll update their status every third game.

PHILOSOPHY

Technically, the revolution was televised – mostly on broadcast fossil Jefferson Pilot Sports (IYKYK) – but Neal Brown didn’t need to check his local listings to catch it.

Because as a seldom-used, try-hard, walk-on wide receiver who caught a statistical drop in the ocean (10 career receptions for 48 yards) in a pass-happy Kentucky offense that piled up 1,040 completions for 11,502 yards from 1998-2000, Brown witnessed Hal Mumme and Mike Leach’s unprecedented aerial mastery first-hand in living color.

Tenets of the head pirate’s then-groundbreaking (skybreaking?) Air Raid attack have served as the offensive foundation at every outpost along Brown’s two-decade coaching voyage. Quick throws that neuter opposing pass rush. Easy reads that eliminate the need to think. Screens that stress defenses horizontally. Vertical concepts that test secondaries downfield. Plunder bubbles in zone coverage. Pick on the weakest defender in man coverage. And do it all at a Jolt Cola pace.

However, of all the mateys who eventually captained their own ships, Brown parrots Leach the least. Instead of trotting out 5 wide receivers and flinging the rock all over the yard, Brown lives in 11 or 12 personnel, deploying tight ends in the traditional sense and as glorified fullbacks/H-backs. The D-list ESPN broadcast team calling the WVU-Oklahoma State season finale referred to Brown’s offense as the “Run Raid” – which, when you look at the numbers, is pretty apropos.

Usually, balance = blasphemy in Air Raid circles as the typical pass-to-run ratio ranges between 65-35 to 75-25. If that’s the gospel, then Brown doesn’t mind being labeled a sinner. During his successful four-year stint at Troy from 2015-2018, the Trojans had three different 1,000-yard runners. At West Virginia, Brown’s pass-to-run ratio has declined every year to the point where decimals are now needed to break the 50-50 split.

FORMATIONS/SCHEME

Nothing too wild. For the most part, the Mountaineers are a shotgun squad that occasionally dabbles in Pistol and goes under center in the ACE formation sometimes (but not always) when the field shrinks and the old guys on the sidelines in fluorescent Big XII bibs drop the chains because it’s goal-to-go.

What did pop off the screen, however, was the Mountaineers excessive use of pre-snap motion/shifts, and the corresponding headaches that come with all that movement. According to our charting, West Virginia altered its post-huddle alignment on 43 of 64 total snaps ( that’s 67.2% for those scoring at home) in the water-logged Oklahoma State tilt.

Why is that significant? Well, let us show you:

Pistol. Trips formation to the boundary, single receiver to the field. WVU TE 88-Brian Polendey (no longer on the team, eligibility expired) motions across to a wing back spot, thus shifting the strength of the formation. The move causes OSU safety 5-Kendal Daniels to shadow Polendey, tipping off young QB 6-Garrett Greene that the Cowboys are in man coverage – an important pre-snap revelation. Then, the original No. 3 receiver to the boundary goes in orbit motion, sucking up the other Okie State safety, leaving no help to bracket the slant/glance RPO. As soon as the Cowboys’ SAM (or whatever hybrid monicker they label that guy) takes a step forward to assist in run support, Greene throws behind his earhole for an easy defensive holding and automatic first down.

One more:

Man, tons to unpack here. Diabolical deception.

OK, so West Virginia initially shows an empty-ish concept (-ish because the H-Back hangs near the QB, though he’s no threat to receive a handoff) with the primary running back flexed out to the slot. Then, they shift. Running back dots the Pistol…H-Back flips to the same backfield spot on the opposite side…No. 2 receiver races from the boundary to the field, making sure to stay on the LOS so this remains a legal formation. Then, another shift! The No. 1 receiver to the field motions to complete a Tight Bunch look – a well-choreographed decoy that demands defenders rapidly communicate (never a good thing) as they frantically scramble to match numbers at the cluster.

At the snap, the Mountaineers run G/H counter toward the sideline, which creates extra gaps that the Sooners defenders are slow to fill – especially the MIKE who just spent 5-8 seconds making sure everyone else knew what the hell they were doing. Looks familiar, doesn’t it?

While West Virginia and Michigan’s talent don’t reside in the same stratosphere, the Mountaineers experienced offensive line – especially C 54-Zach Frazier and LT 64-Wyatt Milum (now No. 74 on Saturday) – will seriously test the Nittany Lions ability to “bring people to the party” when these athletic big men pull and attempt to square up white helmets at the second level.

LION TAMERS

RUNNING BACK 4-CJ DONALDSON JR.: Like a crumpled up twenty found in the front pocket of your puffy coat when winter’s first chill arrives, CJ Donaldson Jr. (No. 12 in these clips, btw) was West Virginia’s most pleasant surprise last season. Not because he proved to be physically and mentally mature enough to handle the rigors of big-stage college football as a true freshman. And not because Donaldson amassed 6.0 yards per carry and a team-best 8 touchdowns on the ground.

No, turns out the welcomed shocker was that Donaldson was…(wait for it)…actually a running back! Who knew?

Recruited as a 6-foot-2, 240-pound, pass-catchy 3-star tight end prospect out of Gulliver Prep in South Florida, WVU coaches flipped Donaldson’s role within the opening week of fall camp last year, even though he never cameo’d at RB in high school. Twelve months later, Donaldson is a no-brainer preseason All-Big XII ballcarrier who’s nowhere close to his eventual ceiling since he’s still figuring out the nuances of the position…like vision, setting up blockers, patience, when to bounce laterally, when to stick his helmet in a pile, muscle up, and plow forward.

Built like those old 1980’s rubbery, top-heavy WWF action figures, Donaldson averaged 4.20 yards after initial contact (a full yard better than Kaytron Allen-3.03 ) and forced 18 missed tackles despite only receiving a paltry 87 rushing attempts all year thanks to a season-ending injury suffered vs. TCU in late October. Not really stepping out on a limb here with this prediction, but expect those post-contact metrics to balloon substantially since Donaldson spent the offseason reshaping his body to fit the traditional RB mold.

For a thick, filled-out runner, Donaldson possesses an uncanny smoothness that often dupes second- and third-level defenders into taking poor angles to the football. At this infant stage of development, Donaldson can’t switch gears. He’s got one speed…and it’s adequate enough to turn corners but not outrace dudes to the end zone.

Finally, this Donaldson goal line sequence (below) might have been the exception rather than the rule, but since it’s all we got to go on, we expected to see more “bully” from the beefy back in goal-to-go scenarios. Again, if this WAS an issue in 2022, offseason S&C should correct it in 2023.

RED CIRCLES (Problem Areas)

 QUARTERBACKS 6-GARRETT GREENE or 8-NICCO MARCHIOL: For a quarterback, West Virginia’s Garrett Greene sure is a helluva running back.

Radiating loads of kid-brother-with-something-to-prove energy every time he steps on the field, this 5-foot-11 Great Value Johnny Manziel has produced explosive 10-plus-yard carries on more than a quarter of his 99 career rush attempts…which includes sacks. As our new friends at WVU blog Smoking Muskets (great name, btw) noted: Of FBS QBs who reached the qualifying run attempts criteria, Greene finished with a Top 10 PFF rushing grade. To date, Greene has more 100-yard rushing games in his career than 200-yard passing performances.

More comfortable with the ball tucked away than he is with it leaving his fingertips, Greene melds supreme straight-line speed (seriously, it wouldn’t shock us if his 40-time bests every RB on the Mountaineers roster), elite short-area acceleration, and ankle-breaking/groin-ripping elusiveness.

Oh, forgot to mention, he’s tougher than winning an argument with your wife, too. Scrappy Doo in cleats. Mighty Mouse rocking a helmet. Some other small cartoon character wearing football equipment (sorry, couldn’t muster up another example to complete The Rule of 3). As you’ll see in this next montage, Greene has no qualms lowering his Shetland shoulders into defenders – the sort of reckless but selfless disregard for your own well-being that teammates eat up and banjo strummers/jug-rim blowers write songs about.

That same heart-racing, hold-your-breath, creep-to-the-edge-of-your seat exileration Greene induces when utilizing his gifted legs also applies to his uncalibrated rifle arm…which isn’t a good thing.

Greene connected on just 55 percent of throws last season, an already troublesome ratio made all the more concerning when you consider that nearly one-third of his total completions came on designed screens. What’s frustrating/maddening/infuriating/exasperating is that Greene’s unique athleticism and sandlot sorcery present soooooo many opportunities to shred defenses through the air that he can’t cash-in because of his accuracy issues. Prime example:

Jet Motion sucks the Oklahoma safety toward the line of scrimmage. The No. 1 receiver at the top of the screen runs a skinny post to clear out the corner, while the motion player executes a wheel route that the charging Sooners safety can’t keep up with. Crackerjack concept. Cue the band. Load the mascot’s rifle. This is a layup TD…or, at least, it should have been. Can’t figure out if this was a designed rollout or if Greene went off script and goofed up, but the unwise choice to bolt from a clean pocket forces an unnecessary off-platform throw. Still, an FBS P5 QB has to connect here. The margin for error is vast. No need for precision. Arm punt a ‘500’ ball, for goodness sakes. Frankly, the only thing you can’t do is what Greene eventually does – throw the ball out of bounds, giving the WR zero shot to make a play.

Here are a few more Ricky Vaughn moments we clipped:

At least one Dr. Scholl’s insert lift shy of 6-feet, Greene also struggles seeing the entire field and locating open second and third options in passing concepts, leading to a lot of predetermined throws even when pre-snap alignment and post-snap coverage dictates he should look elsewhere. Like this play:

It’s 3^rd and 12. The Oklahoma corner on the field side playing off-ball bails into a deep-third at the snap, making it nearly impossible for WVU WR-0 Bryce Ford-Wheaton (2023 UDFA, New York Giants) to pop the top off the defense. Compounding matters, Greene fails to look off the centerfield safety, thus eliminating any chance of a 1-on-1 50/50 ball scenario, but still chucks up a pre-determined prayer into double coverage. In doing so, Greene missed a chance of hitting the slot receiver running an open option-route bender across the middle of the field.

Fast-forward 2 quarters…same game, same down and distance, same coverage shell, same route combination, same missed opportunity to hit the chain-moving bender. No clue why Greene left the pocket here.

Last one:

3^rd and 4. Sooners send six guys after Greene, dropping five in quarter-quarter-half coverage. West Virginia does a decent job picking up the blitz, affording Greene enough time to stay patient, stay strong in the pocket knowing punishment awaits, and hit the wide open mesh. Instead, Greene inexplicably steps up in a collapsing pocket and throws a wild jump pass that sails over the receiver AND nearest defender.

Probably not a shocker to learn that PFF saddled Greene with a 5.1% ‘turnover-worthy play’ rate last season, one of the worst percentages in the Big XII.

NOTE: Brothers in irrelevant gamesmanship, Neal Brown and James Franklin have both decided to not name a starting QB nor release a depth chart prior to Saturday night’s festivities. Every Mountaineer fan on YouTube who ponied up $120 for a SHURE microphone inside their recording studio  bedroom seems to believe Greene is the guy. However, if that’s not the case, the Mountaineers will turn to second-year 4-star composite lefty 8-Nicco Marchiol. Considering Marchiol only completed 2 passes in the games we scouted, we’re not gonna fake it, draw unfounded conclusions, and pretend we extracted anything of merit from this dry-hole sample size.

We did mash together a few reps for YOU to overanalyze, though. Enjoy!