Film at 11: Northwestern Offense

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I’m not one of these sports savants who can describe in perfect detail a specific play from a Week Twelve game against Pitt in the mid-80’s. By the end of each football season, I pretty much delete those files from my human hard drive (a.k.a. my brain) to clear room for all of the day-to-day trivial gigabytes – passwords, family birthdays, answers to security questions like the middle name of my second-grade gym teacher – to survive from late January to late August.

There is one exception, though…weird weather games.

Not sure what it is, but there’s something about players flopping around in extreme rain, snow, wind, that just stinks in my memory. Heck, 60 years from now, when my no-good unborn children stick me in a senior assisted living facility (or God’s Waiting Room, as it’s also called) I’ll still be muttering about the 2007 Steelers-Dolphins Monday Night Mud Bowl and the Brandon Fields punt submerged in the slop…well, when I’m not screaming about the nurses stealing money.

Last year’s Penn State/Northwestern Slip N Slide showdown in Dampy Valley occupies a similar space in many of our minds. Seven combined fumbles, 11 total turnovers, but for me the lasting memory will forever be the soggiest, most depressing chicken fingers I’ve ever eaten. About as miserable a day for a fan as one can have while watching football.

Luckily, according to the fine folks at Accuweather, there will be no encore this Saturday in sleepy Evanston, Illinois. Sunny. High of 76. Wind under 10 mph. Chamber of Commerce late morning/early afternoon…meaning I’ll forget everything about this game and everything about Northwestern roughly four months from today.

For this scout, we celebrated the Wildcats entire 2023 catalog, but mostly their Week 3 and Week 4 performances – a blowout against the floor-slappers at Duke and a where-did-that-come-from, 21-point comeback versus the “I feel elite, coach”  boat rowers of Minnesota.

Starters

Philosophy

The phrase “ball control” was a favorite Pat Fitzgerald-ism; if he saw what’s become of his team he’d be rolling over in his…well, not his grave but whatever sofa he’s been spending his Saturdays on lately. The ‘Cats possessed the ball for less than 1:30 of the first quarter of the Rutgers game and barely five minutes against Duke. Hell, even UTEP won the time of possession battle.

Way back in December 2019 during the introductory press conference announcing OC Mike Bajakian’s hiring, Fitzpatrick praised him for building offenses that “beat you through the air, and others that punished opponents on the ground, depending on personnel.” That goodwill evaporated after a 2022 campaign in which Northwestern fielded the worst scoring offense in the Power Five (13.8 points/game). Fitzy told WildcatReport.com‘s Louie Vaccher he only brought Bajakian back this year because he already hired a new DC and wanted continuity on at least one side of the ball.

Smash cut to two months later: Bajakian is basically the last man standing. He’s got that Mayor of Deadwood energy: you kinda get the feeling the only reason he’s still around is he’s too dumb to be dangerous.

Bajakian has struggled to find a new identity for his team with Peter Skoronski and Evan Hull graduating to the NFL. Far from leaning on the ground game, their 98.0 rushing yards/game ranks dead last in the B1G, and 118^th out of 133 FBS schools. They racked up 400 passing yards against the Golden Gophers (dumb name, by the way) but I have a feeling “get down BIG, quick, then score 28 in the 4th/OT” isn’t a sustainable recipe for success.

James Franklin mentioned in his press conference Tuesday he thinks this iteration of Wildcats would prefer to move the ball through the air. Whether that represents a philosophical change for Northwestern’s offense, or they’ve been forced to play that way by game script factors, I’m not qualified to speak on (psst, it’s the latter). Coach may be playing a little “cat and mouse” there.

Formations

Classic run-and-gun prototype: a blend of tight, power formations and spread-em-out shotgun looks. The key to that is Northwestern’s one-two punch at RB: 4-Cam Porter and 20-Joseph Himon. Porter (the bell-cow) is posting a respectable 4.2 yards/carry with 148 of his 204 yards (73%) coming after contact. Himon is a scatback with game-wrinkling speed, dynamic out of the backfield.

When you aren’t getting on top of defenses (only 2 completions 20+ yards downfield through Week Three) you better make them cover sideline-to-sideline. Below, Duke is showing single-high with pattern-matching underneath that implies man-under (Cover-1). There’s a lot of green – and blue – between that hash and his receiver on the far numbers; that’s a tough, risky throw to make:

At the snap the defense bails out to a Cover-3 (maybe that Saban Cover-1/Cover-3 hybrid). Not that Northwestern QB 2-Ben Bryant noticed; he was staring down his X-receiver on the short-side all the way. That’s classically a cardinal sin for a QB but he put the ball where the defender would have to go through the receiver to make a play. A better throw would have been a gimme first down and an opportunity for a lot more.

If Northwestern tightens/condenses their formation, be ready for the jet sweep. The idea there is to compress the defense and try to get your speediest guy around the edge:

Below is a snapshot of another jet sweep but from a wider formation, with a twist of play action. Duke’s showing single-high, hinting man-under; the nickel back (“6”) traveling with Wildcats WR 8-A.J. Henning when he goes in motion confirms that. There’s a high probability that defender will get lost in traffic trying to scrape over the top. That leaves only Duke LB-8 and CB-11 between the ball and the safety, and two blockers to deal to account for them. If everyone does their job, there’s only one man who can keep this play out of the end zone:

The ballcarrier in all these plays is Henning — a Michigan transfer, if the name sounds familiar — and he ran it to the field-side each time. He has 11 rushes for 65 yards and one TD in the first four games. All three of those early-season tallies are more than the totals for all Wildcat WRs FOR THE ENTIRE 2022 SEASON.

Northwestern was in shotgun (or at least pistol) for all but two snaps of the Duke game. I went back to when PSU played them last year: in the first half their QB took the snap under-center exactly once. That’s peculiar for a run-forward team.

Usually starting from the shotgun slows your runner down at the mesh point while the guys chasing him already have a head of steam. Steelers fans remember when Ben was nearing the end, fragile as a Ming vase, insisting on being in shotgun to put an extra step between himself and the defense. Najee Harris was coming out of the blocks with a parachute tied around his waist. Ben’s reluctance to run play actions for fear of turning his back to a pass rush didn’t help, either.

Backed up against his own goal line in the wild Minnesota game last weekend, Bryant went under-center and fed Porter on five straight downhill runs. His first four were successful for 26 yards but they went to the well one too many times, he lost two yards on the fifth attempt and Northwestern plumb gave up on it.

Lion Tamers

WIDE RECEIVER 17-BRYCE KIRTZ: Who’s a threat to put salt in Manny Diaz’s flawless hair this weekend?

One of college football’s sixth-year Van Wilders thanks to COVID, WR 17-Bryce Kirtz hadn’t caught a touchdown until this season. Now, one-third of the way through his Last Dance, Kirtz already has a career high in receiving yards (274)…and he didn’t play in the opener. Numbers like that don’t need context but I love my job so I’ll throw some out there anyway. First, take a look at the film, then we’ll compare notes:

Kirtz’s first TD was a busted Cover-3 with two of the deep zone defenders jumping the TE seam route, leaving the boundary wide open for an explosive catch-and-run. Later, on three consecutive snaps: he found the honey hole in an inverted Cover-2, won a one-on-one against Cover-1 with a great release, then flattened a post route to sit in the deep hole of a Cover-2 for his second score of the day.

QUARTERBACK 2-BEN BRYANT: I’d be remiss if I did not shout out Bryant for his part in the mini-miracle we just witnessed last Saturday. After a rocky start to the year he’s starting to show why he has three seasons on his resume with PFF passing grades better than 80.

The over-the-shoulder throws show touch, driving that ball in at the goal line shows gun-slinging power, and triangulating it between three defenders shows key-hole accuracy.

Then there’s the pocket mobility that makes it all possible. That’s what differentiates a gym class hero from a varsity prospect. Nothing’s ever going to be clean so you have to get comfortable in the midst of the hurricane, step up into the eye of the storm and keep a stable platform to throw from.

They say for certain QBs (Tom Brady comes to mind) blitzing only makes them better. Ben Bryant does not appear to be that kind of guy. In Northwestern’s two losses this year he’s been knocked down (sacks+hits) 7 and 9 times. That averages out to 8 (impressive quick math), which is exactly double the times he was knocked down in each of the Wildcats two wins.

The question I’m sure is curling the corners of your mouth: how confident and comfortable will he look opposite Chop and Adisa?

Red Circles

OFFENSIVE TACKLES: Up front they are a far cry from the talent they had a year ago. Both starting offensive tackles (at least the Week 3 starters, more on this two sentences from now) have sub-replacement level PFF grades. LT 72-Caleb Tiernan (54.2) and RT 79-Zachary Franks (59.8) have combined for 17 pressures and 5 sacks allowed through four games. Franks didn’t play against Minnesota — he’s either hurt ( though he’s not listed on any injury reports) or he’s lost the starting role to 56-Josh Thompson, who isn’t really an upgrade.

As you can see the interior OL isn’t exactly carrying their weight, either, but I can’t Red Ring of Shame the whole line. In particular they struggled with Duke’s second-level rushers in that game, a spice used liberally in Manny Diaz’s kitchen. It’s something they wouldn’t see a lot in practice with the style of defense Northwestern plays. They’ll see plenty of it this weekend.

The only injury concern to note is TE 88-Marshall Lang. Lang – who led Wildcats’ TE’s last season with 192 receiving yards – was in the process of making a tough catch up the seam when he got folded in half (hamburger-style) by a collapsing safety. He left the game holding his left midsection.

Final Thoughts

With a new, interim coach and a revolving door at QB it’s fair to ask where this team’s leadership is coming from. Bryant’s a steadying force when his offensive line can keep him on his feet…which will be difficult vs. Penn State.

One thing’s for sure: these aren’t the same Wildcats we saw in the B1G Championship Game less than three years ago. For Penn State, this weekend is about taking care of business, and leaving without bumps and bruises: take the plays when they’re there, bail when they’re not, and get iced up for Ohio State (ahem, I mean UMass).

I’ll leave you with a passage I found in an Inside NU piece reacting to the Wildcats’ disastrous Week 1 performance against Rutgers:

“Later in the night after the game ended, I watched ‘Zodiac,’ a truly unnerving movie that scared me to my core. Thinking about this offensive line facing off against Chop Robinson and Penn State in a few weeks is even scarier.”