Big Stakes for B1G’s Brand

A Slate of High-Profile Non-Conference Matchups Could Define the Big Ten Before the Leaves Change

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If there is one lesson to be learned thus far from college football’s playoff era, it is this: Brand matters.

While the number of playoff berths seems destined to expand eventually, it appears we will have several more years with the current model, in which the supply of postseason slots dramatically dwarfs the demand from would-be participants and their fans. It is a system where national perception of your program definitively dictates the reality of its playoff chances, a trend that absolutely extends to your conference at large. So if you aspire to chase an elusive committee selection, a great name is a necessity, but it sure helps to keep the right company. Don’t believe me? Ask our fellow Rebel Alliance partner the PAC-12 about how level the playing field seems from where they sit.

Perversely, one of the more frustrating losses for Penn State fans, a potential home upset of Ohio State in 2014 that hinged on two abjectly terrible blown calls, probably altered the Big Ten’s fate in the selection committee’s brand equity horse race – and therefore the Lions’ own future playoff chances – for the better. In August of 2014, the preseason conventional wisdom tabbed the stodgy Big Ten, clinging to its cable boxes and dusty memories of days gone by, as the most likely “odd man out” of the five-conference race for four newly-minted playoff spots. As it happened, Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes caught lightning in a bottle, and after a demolition of Wisconsin in the B1G Championship vaulted them over TCU and into the inaugural CFP, Ohio State toppled mighty Alabama on its way to a national title win over Oregon. That championship performance, which resuscitated the Big Ten’s flagging reputation and pushed the Big XII and PAC-12 down in the pecking order, never would have happened without the Nittany Lions taking one for the team.

While fans debate the relative merits of “rooting for a conference” (honestly, is some abstract notion of “pride” worth the indignity of cheering on Ohio State or Michigan in a bowl game?), the perceived strength of the Big Ten could directly impact Penn State’s season. In an optimistic scenario where the Nittany Lions start 7-0, only a national narrative arguing for the Big Ten’s prestige will prevent their Halloween weekend trip to the Horseshoe from becoming a de facto elimination game for the playoffs. So if you’re viewing the world through Blue and White lenses – the only way to do it this time of year, to be honest – then the question of the B1G’s national reputation is more than an academic matter, and it could be definitively decided before October.

As it is, four more B1G programs are guaranteed to start the season at 0-1, joining Nebraska. Quirks of the potentially ill-fated move to nine intra-conference games resulted in 10 teams opening against a fellow member institution, including this past Saturday’s “Week Zero” sweat-fest between the Cornhuskers and Fighting Illini (and Penn State’s trip to Madison the following week). So fully a third of the teams will start out in recovery mode, and you never get a second chance to make a first impression.

Beyond that, a total of 15 key games over the season’s first four full weeks of action, involving all 14 members of the conference, will pit B1G teams against marquee opponents from outside the conference, each with the potential to elevate or damage the Big Ten’s national profile. And that’s to say nothing of games involving several Group of Five opponents who did not quite make the cut. Coming off the calamity of last season, even the likes of Michigan ought not overlook their opener when Western Michigan comes to town. The same should certainly be said for Rutgers hosting Temple in the first week. It may still be a little hard to swallow, but Nebraska’s home opener versus the Buffalo Bulls, favored by some to win the MAC, can no longer be dismissed as a “gimme.” Hitting even closer to home, Penn State’s first chance to play before a home crowd in over a year also comes in their second game, and defending MAC champion Ball State, with its potent offense and bevy of returning starters, has the profile of a spoiler.

The first full week of games brings West Virginia traveling to face Maryland and Oregon State visiting West Lafayette to take on Purdue, plus Western Michigan’s aforementioned road trip to Ann Arbor. A string of underwhelming seasons has finally cooled preseason pollsters’ enthusiasm for Michigan, but rankings be damned, an embarrassing home upset for one of its (ahem) Blue Bloods would be a black eye for the Big Ten. Nobody is going to bad mouth the conference too much if the Terps and Boilers both bite it in their games, but going at least .500 that weekend (or better yet, 2-0) would set up the favorable framing of “our middling teams are better than your middling teams.” It beats the alternative!

But it is the following weekend when things really get interesting, headlined by a highly-anticipated clash between Oregon and Ohio State in Columbus. If the Big Ten’s banner carrier is felled at home in the biggest out-of-conference barometer game, the remaining 13 supporting players will need to pick up the slack and be more than the Washington Generals, or you can fold up the tent for 2021. Speaking of “Washington,” Week Two also sees the UW Huskies visiting the Big House in a potential statement game for a Wolverines team whose recruiting rankings outpace their standing in the polls. On the national radar, Iowa-Iowa State is typically just a charming artifact of a bygone era when regional rivals faced off annually (insert Penn State-Pitt hot take). This year, the Hawkeyes (pictured above holding the ‘coveted’ Cy-Hawk Trophy) have a chance to almost-immediately spoil the novelty of their hated in-state foe’s Top 10 ranking on the Cyclones’ home turf. Last (and least, but still significant in its own way), you have Rutgers at Syracuse, another “our trash versus yours” type of game that could prove crucial to Greg Schiano’s pursuit of what would be an admittedly-impressive bowl invite in the second year of his rebuild.

That’s a trio of marquee matchups, all of which could help cement the Big Ten’s status as a power player this Fall or just as easily spread the stench of decay, and they’ve got nothing on Week Three. It is a rare thing indeed for an SEC team to come up North, and yet for the second time in 10 years, the Nittany Lions will host a visitor from Alabama when Auburn gets the prime time Whiteout treatment. While this battle of traditional powers amid one of the sport’s most distinctive atmospheres clearly enjoys the superior pedigree, the unlikely pairing of Cincinnati and Indiana may actually carry the most intrigue. IU’s interesting 2020 set up sky high expectations, and the Bearcats will look to justify their own lofty expectations when they visit Bloomington. One Cinderella could end the day disinvited from the ball.

Despite the best efforts of Nebraska’s athletics administration, the Cornhuskers will mark the 50th anniversary of the “Game of the Century” by facing Oklahoma. Anything better than the expected embarrassment at the hands of the Sooners ought to count as a “win” when it comes to parceling out brand equity. The rest of the week offers a quintet of games that could offer a preview of a near-future dominated by the Alliance: Michigan State at Miami, Minnesota at Colorado, Illinois at Virginia, Northwestern at Duke, and Purdue at Notre Dame. It’s not difficult to imagine the road teams going winless in those contests, but nor does a 3-2 mark seem an unreasonable ask, especially since it does not require a miracle from the Spartans or Boilermakers. One more big time non-conference match comes the next week when Notre Dame faces Wisconsin, a tremendous opportunity for the Badgers to claim victory for king and country.

So the Big Ten will have every chance to blast out of September on fire or trip over its own feet and tumble down the stairs in public. If things are going well, just one upset, any upset, at any point, could dump accelerant on the blaze. If not, at least we all might drag Ohio State down with us.

Chris Buchignani hosts The Obligatory PSU Pregame Show, entering its fifth season in televised syndication, with Brandon Noble, Mike the Mailman, and Kevin Horne.