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Introduction

Shortly after Mike Yurcich’s surprise hire as Penn State’s new offensive coordinator back in January, we used a wide array of basic and advanced stats to examine how well his previous offenses performed and why Nittany Lions fans’ initial excitement for what could be in 2021 was totally justified. Then, a couple of weeks ago, we crunched various numbers to figure out, at this this point in his career, whether Sean Clifford is more Trace McSorley or Christian Hackenberg. 

Today, we’ll sort of morph those two concepts together.

That is, since 2013, how have Yurcich’s quarterbacks performed and what might that portend for Sean Clifford in 2021? Statistically, we’re going to keep it simple, but I think (hope!) there are some nuggets in here that make us optimistic for the season.

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Introduction

This Friday marks the return of Penn State Football’s  ‘Lift for Life’ charity event after a one-year hiatus because of COVID. For those not familiar with annual philanthropic endeavor, Lift for Life raises funds and awareness for the treatment of rare diseases by putting the football team through a number of physical/strength challenges. In 2019, the Nittany Lions generated close to $51,000 in donations during Lift for Life.

By the way, for those interested in donating to this year’s event, follow this link.

Unlike years past, when Penn State players participated in a litany of drills and lifts, the 2021 version of Lift for Life will focus on one event: a 225-pound bench press competition between nine football position groups – QBs vs. OL vs. LBs, etc. If that particular amount rings a bell, 225 pounds is also the official weight used for the bench press at the annual NFL Scouting Combine.

So, as an avid stat person and weightlifter, this got me thinking about the purpose of the bench press, how data and performance of the bench has changed (if at all) over the years, and how the number of 225-pound reps put up at the combine correlate to future NFL success.

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Introduction

There has been a lot (too much?) talk in the off-season about Penn State’s need to upgrade its quarterback situation going into the 2021 season. Every time any FBS quarterback hit the Transfer Portal, message boards and Twitter exploded with speculation about Penn State’s interest, and whether said quarterback would be an upgrade over Sean Clifford. Heck, a vocal few even wondered if a strong spring from Ta’Quan Roberson or true freshman Christian Veilleux could be enough to supplant the incumbent quarterback. 

All that talk made for great fodder from January to April, but it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Clifford will be the Game 1 starter in Madison, making him the 3rd three-year starter for Penn State in succession. That begs the question: as Clifford enters his third (and presumably final) season under center, how has his statistical performance compared to the numbers compiled by the previous two starters – Christian Hackenberg (2013-2015) and Trace McSorley (2016-2018)?

The answer, as you’ll see, is almost smack-dab in the middle. 

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Introduction

Welcome to Part 2 of our in-depth look at Penn State’s defense since the promotion of Brent Pry to Defensive Coordinator in 2016. In Part 1 we analyzed the Nittany Lions’ performance in standard statistical categories and compared those numbers against the rest of the Big Ten over the past 5 seasons (2016 – 2020). The main takeaway was that the “bend, don’t break” reputation that the Penn State defense has earned recently is deserved. Pry’s group tends to give up a fair number of total yards but does an excellent job of preventing teams from scoring and limiting big plays (the low YPP). Additionally, Pry’s teams have been better than average on 3rd down and generating Havoc plays in the form of sacks, tackles for loss, and fumbles. 

Today, we will take a deeper look at the defensive performance in some of the more advanced statistical measurements. Again, all stats herein are only for conference games from 2016-2020. 

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Introduction

With the offseason hiring of Mike Yurcich, Penn State welcomes its fourth different offensive coordinator in five years.  Therefore, In comparison, the fact that defensive coordinator Brent Pry is about to enter his 6th season calling the shots on the other side of the ball makes him a relative stalwart and model of stability. So today let’s analyze how he’s done leading the squad over the past five years. 

During Pry’s tenure, there have been periods of frustration – the 2017 and 2018 OSU comeback losses, the 4th quarter of the 2017 Rose Bowl, the first half of the 2020 season – but all-in-all the fan barometer of our time with Pry seems mostly positive. But what do the stats say? Are there specific areas of weakness? 3rd down defense? Pass defense against otherwise mediocre quarterbacks? Let’s find out.

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In a move that was more shocking than The Red Wedding, Penn State has another new Offensive Coordinator. Today, we analyze what to expect from Mike Yurcich who (like yours truly) has been privileged with significant PSAC experience in his days.

Introduction

By now, you’ve probably watched the excellent video breakdown on fortheblogy.com on what to expect schematically from Coach Yurcich’s offense. If not, click back to the main page, scroll down and check it out. We’ll wait…

…OK, welcome back. Coach Nick does an amazing job with X’s and O’s, but when it comes to ABC’s we focus on numbers, statistical trends, and results. Today, while we’re all still in the honeymoon phase of this hire, let’s dig into what Yurcich did as an offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State and Texas – and compare those tenures to what Penn State’s previous OC’s accomplished.

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Introduction

Now, it’s the defense’s turn. Same general premise as yesterday. As we turn the page to 2021, let’s take one last look back on what was the 2020 Penn State Nittany Lions – specifically defensive coordinator Brent Pry’s unit. We’ll explore what trended well, and explore what needs to be fixed in the offseason. And how are we going to do that, you ask? Same way we did weekly during the season – using a mix of basic and advanced stats within the broader context of the James Franklin era at PSU. 

Basic Statistics Summary

You’ve watched all the games but it’s worth reposting the basic stats summaries. Let’s start with yards allowed. In the graph below we have the passing yards (blue), rush yards (orange), and total yards (red) surrendered in each game.

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Introduction

Before we turn the page to 2021, let’s take one last look back on the 2020 Penn State Nittany Lions. What trended well? What were the consistent strong/weak points? And, finally, what needs to be fixed in the offseason. Today, it’s the offense’s turn under the microscope. As we always do, this season-ending summary will be a thorough mix of basic and advanced stats within the broader context of the James Franklin era at PSU. 

Basic Statistics Summary

Our first graph shows the yards generated in each game. Passing yards (blue), rush yards (orange), and total yards (red) .

With the exceptions of Indiana and Nebraska, Penn State really struggled to run the ball early in the season and relied heavily on the pass game to generate yards against Ohio State, Maryland, and Iowa which were (probably not) coincidentally the three biggest losses. Penn State’s lack of a rushing attack against good defenses like the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes –two teams that typically have strong, opportunistic defensive lines – left the Lions offense vulnerable to sacks and turnovers. If we look at passing yards as the % of total yards generated (Pass Share) in the graph below, you can see how much the offense skewed towards passing, especially early on.

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Introduction

Penn State’s victory against Illinois seems to be an oddly satisfying conclusion to a bizarre, frustrating, and at times (namely the first five games) disappointing season. But if it must end, let it end with a thorough beat down of an overmatched and depleted team. By now, most people know that the team opted to not play in a bowl game this year and no one should be upset about that. For myriad reasons, this has been one of the most stressful years in recent history and the team, coaches, and staff certainly earned the right to return to some sense of normalcy with their families and friends. Not even the prestige of playing in a condiment or mortgage lending bowl was worth continuing with the restrictions placed on them. Let them come back fresh in the mid-winter and begin preparations toward a hopeful 2021 season. In the meantime, we’ll look back on 2020 over the course of the next few weeks and try to get a picture of what was and what might be moving forward.

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Introduction

During the 2nd quarter and halftime of the game against Michigan State on Saturday how many of you (us) thought that the last two weeks, where both Penn State’s offense and defense looked competent, were flukes? Who thought that the Lions, who managed wins against terrible Michigan and Rutgers teams, were now being exposed against a terrible 2-win Spartans team, and were destined to finish 2-6 themselves and with the fewest wins in the division? 

I sure did.

 I mean, the Good Guys were down 21-10 at the half and made Payton Thorne look like vintage Peyton Manning as he carved up our secondary. But then the 2nd half came, and the defense looked more like the unit we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks and by the end, Penn Sate was literally doing backflips on the field. 

If it’s possible for a 3-5 team to possess momentum, Penn State seems to have harnessed it heading into Big Ten “Champions” Week – a.k.a., “Hey Fox, Here’s Some TV Content So You Don’t Have to Run a Masked Singer Marathon” Week. 

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