Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – Week 4: PSU vs. CMU

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Introduction

It was the best of times, it was the okay-ist of times, I guess.

Penn State is 4-0 after downing their 2^nd MAC foe in three games as the the Central Michigan University Chippewas managed to hang around but never really threaten during a 33-14 setback at Beaver Stadium. Penn State football Twitter (the community not the university account) was in some disarray after CMU came back to tie the game at 14 late in the 2^nd quarter. Then, the Nittany Lions scored the final 19 points to close out the game. Of course, that didn’t silence the army of keyboard warriors out there. There was concern about quarterback play and decision making. There was concern about the run game that was stifled for much of the first half. There was concern about the Lions’ pass catchers. Regardless, Penn State has safely navigated 1/3rd of its 2022 slate without a hiccup in the loss column and sit comfortably within the Top 15 nationally. This on a Saturday where several top-ranked teams looked shaky, even indestructible Georgia. So, Penn State Twitter, give your frantic fingers a rest while we explored where Penn State ranks nationally in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency.

But first…

Quick Hitters

1. Penn State was +4 in turnovers for the 2^nd week in a row marking only the 5^th time under James Franklin that they have been +4 or better. Pretty incredible that two of those times already occurred in 2022. It’s a testament to Manny Diaz’s aggressive defense but also the ability of the offense to protect the ball. Through 4 games, the offense has only given up one turnover.
2. Zakee Wheatley was part of that turnover effort picking up his 2^nd interception in as many weeks. Those, plus the forced fumble that led to the last TD before halftime against Purdue, have been big plays from the freshman safety. He is one of the bright stars in what is turning out to be an incredible secondary.
3. Speaking of the secondary, the defense had 13 pass breakups against CMU. Central threw the ball 52 times. Quick math…that means Penn State broke-up 25 percent of all throws. That is extremely disruptive to an opposing offense.
4. The kicking game struggled on Saturday going 0/2 on FGs allowed a PAT to get blocked. So much for the bounce back that they had against Auburn. The lack of consistency from both placekickers could come back to bite Penn State as the schedule toughens in mid-to-late October.
5. Barney Amor again had a great day with 3 of 4 punts settling inside the 20. He continues to be a weapon capable of flipping the field.

Basic Statistics

The Penn State performance against CMU was – stop-and-go? Mid? Workmanlike? Some other beige descriptor? The Nittany Lions started out fast with two quick scores – the second served up on a platter thanks to Wheatley’s pick and long return — min the first 8 minutes of the game. They had racked up 14 points on 74 yards while holding the Chips to -4 yards. Then things turned a bit. CMU started making some incredible plays, including a circus juggling TD catch on 4^th and Goal, and tied the game at 14 before Kaytron Allen’s 14-yard TD before halftime.

Offensively, Penn State still managed pile up more than 5 yards per rushing attempt, which is the 3^rd time this season they’ve accomplished that feat. That’s already one more than Penn State racked up all of last season. So they’re starting to show sustainability in that phase of the offense. The 6.1 yards/pass attempt is concerning, though. That’s really low. In the first two drives, Clifford had 62 yards on 5 attempts. For there, he only managed 155 passing yards on his next 29 attempts and missed several wide-open opportunities – e.g. Kaytron Allen in the flat for a huge gain. Clifford not looking at wide-open RBs is sort of a trend the last couple of games.

On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State was disruptive and stingy. That’s nothing new. They’ve been that way all season. Diaz’s defenders currently rank 30^th in FBS in yards-per-play allowed at 5.0. The Lions top-40 rush defense had another good showing allowing 88 yards on 23 attempts.

Time of possession has been less tilted in 2022 compared to previous years. Penn State holds the ball for nearly 31 min/game which ranks 53^rd nationally. That’s up from a 113^th ranked 27.8 minutes in 2021 but still a far cry from the 41+ minutes per game that national leader Minnesota – and old friend Kirk Ciarrocca – possess the ball.

Advanced Stats – Efficiencies

For this week’s metric, let’s explore Penn State’s efficiency on both sides of the ball. As a reminder, we examine/calculate efficiency on a per drive basis…how well do teams move the ball (yards/possession) and score (points/possession)? Then, we’ll use our proprietary Overall Effectiveness metrics to see where Penn State sits versus the rest of the conference.

We’ll start with the offenses and the plot below of yard efficiency (x-axis) versus scoring efficiency (y-axis). Each logo represents that particular Big Ten team and each dot represents a team from the other conferences. Teams above the trendline are scoring at a higher rate than they statistically should and teams below the line are underperforming. As you can see, Penn State lands as a middle-of-the-conference team in both metrics. The Lions rank 6^th in the Big Ten in yards/drive and 5^th in points/drive. Their 37.2 yards/drive is slightly above the 33-yard FBS average. For points, they rank 27^th nationally with 3.1 points/drive (FBS average=2.4).

Look at freakin’ Minnesota! Kirk, we’re sorry, man. I still contend that Ciarrocca got a raw deal and was an easy scapegoat for a very forgettable season. The efficiency of his current offense seems to validate my opinion. The Gophers overall scoring average is as good as many teams’ red zone scoring and they are averaging 15 yards/drive MORE than Ohio State (UGA is the gray dot next to Goldy the Gopher). Granted, the boat rowers haven’t played a murderer’s row of defenses. New Mexico State. Colorado. Michigan State is still a mess on that side of the ball. Still, it’s impressive. Very glad Penn State plays the Gophers in Beaver Stadium this season.

Defensively, again we see Minnesota near the top of the league. The muscle Gophers are T-1st in the nation in points/drive allowed with Iowa and Alabama. In this defensive chart, below the line means giving up less scoring than expected for the amount of yardage surrendered. Penn State is pretty far below the line. This translates into “bend don’t break” as it has for several seasons lately. The Nittany Lions are 50^th in FBS in yards/drive and 17^th in points/drive. The Penn State offense, after the October 1 meeting against Northwestern, takes on Michigan (6^th nationally in yards and points), Minnesota (1^st points; 6^th in yards), and then finally get a breather against Ohio State (14^th points and 18^th in yards). Having the last two games at home is a blessing but that is about as tough of a three-game stretch as you can get.

We end with the Overall Effectiveness. The y-axis is the difference of offensive effectiveness and defensive effectiveness and the x-axis is the offensive effectiveness on its own (just to give some separation of logos). The location on the y-axis is the team rating. There, we see a clear separation of three squads (Ohio State, Michigan, and Minnesota) as the current class of the Big Ten. They rank 3^rd, 4^th, and 6^th respectively across FBS. The other teams in the top 6 are Alabama (1^st), Georga (2^nd), and Tennessee (5^th).

Penn State comes in at 12^th as of this week and is 23^rd in defensive effectiveness and 25^th in offensive effectiveness. The Lions will take that #12 ranking against the 75^th-ranked Northwestern Wildcats this week before a bye to rest ahead of the gauntlet. The Nittany Lions fairly impressive metrics should stay steady or even improve this week. But, what happens between the 15^th and 29^th of October will either propel the program to new heights (likely on the back of Sean Clifford) or reduce the rest of the 2022 slate to nothing more than a dress rehearsal for a 2023 playoff run (likely on the back of Drew Allar).