PSU ABC's

Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – PSU vs. Sparty

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Introduction

For you Glass-Half-Fullers out there, the Penn State Nittany Lions finished the 2021 regular season with a winning record, which is something we couldn’t say at the end of last year. That’s the good. But for you Glass-Half-Empty Sky Screamers, the fact that the Nittany Lions slipped on several banana peels (starting roughly around the 10-minute mark of the 2^nd Quarter vs. Iowa) while stumbling across the finish line was hard to swallow and will leave an unpleasant aftertaste for the next 9 months. From 5-0 and No. 4 in the country to 2-5 in the last 7 and a non-New Year’s Day bowl participant. That’s the bad. Issues abound on both sides of the ball – issues we’ll have plenty of time to talk about in February and March as we wait for the snow to melt.

Today, though, let’s focus on the debacle in East Lansing. After gifting Michigan State a quick 14-point lead, the Lions fought back to take the lead before literally fumbling it away. Toss in an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance, missed kicks, and a complete lack of a running game and you have a recipe for disaster. Post-Pick-6 until about 2-minutes left in the 4^th, the wheels fell off and a season that blossomed with so much promise and hope cruelly wilted in the arms of Spartans WR Jayden Reed during a rather nonthreatening onside kick attempt.

Quick Hitters

Going into the regular season finale, Penn State’s defense was allowing 35% conversions on 3^rd down and 53% on 4^th down. MSU converted 9 of 18 (50%) on 3^rd down and 3 of 4 (75%) on 4^th down. The Spartans had conversion plays of: 3^rd-and-8 (40 yards), 3^rd-and-8 (23 yards), 3^rd-and goal (9 yards TD), 3^rd-and-8 (19 yards), 4^th-and-6 (19 yards), 3^rd-and-12 (21 yards), 4^th-and-15 (20 yards, TD). Absolute disaster.
On the flip side, the Penn State offense only managed to convert their season average of 38%. They failed to convert on: 3^rd-and-2 (1 yard), 3^rd-and-5 (sack, -2), 4^th-and-1 (0), 3^rd-and-1 (-1, fumble). Similarly as bad as the defensive performance.
If we’re being nice, let’s just say the kicking game left something to be desired. For as fantastic as Jordan Stout has been at punting and kickoffs, he was not the answer in the PAT and FG department. Against MSU he left 4 points on the table that were the difference of the game. Granted the conditions were terrible but you need those points. For the season Penn State was 75^th best in terms of FG’s at 70% and missed 2 extra points, which puts them in the bottom 30 of FBS. Can’t have it.

Basic Statistics

Credit where credit is due, the Spartans did just enough to win the game. Yes, they outgained Penn State by 77 yards but had a worse efficiency (yards-per-play) at 5.9 versus Penn State’s 6.2. That 6.2 YPP number that the Lions generated was tied for the 2^nd best performance of the season (Villanova -7.8; Ball State and Indiana – 6.2). Unfortunately, the 5.9 allowed was the 2^nd worst showing of the year (OSU gained 6.9 YPP). Going into the day, the Penn State defense was 6^th in the country against FBS opponents in YPP allowed (4.55). For their part, MSU was 26^th gaining an average of 6.4 YPP.

While the weather outside was frightful, both teams passed the ball quite well completing 68% and 63%, respectively. The 68% showing was Penn State’s 4^th best completion percentage of the season to go along with their best yard-per-passing attempt since Villanova. Again, the defense, which was 38^th in the country at completion percentage allowed and 5^th(!?!?!?!?!?) in yards-per-attempt allowed (5.6) had one of their worst performances of the season. Only Ohio State’s 9.0 YPA was better than Sparty. Michigan State was averaging “only” 8.1 YPA offensively for the season so the 8.9 YPA posted against Brent Pry’s bunch far exceeded expectations.

Surprise, the Penn State rushing attack was bad…again. In fact, it was bad all season. How bad? Well, we’re going to devote a whole post to that next week so I won’t discuss it too much here…but the fact that we’re isolating that specific aspect of the offense should tell you something. I will say this: For as well as Penn State has recruited over the years, the running game should have at least been serviceable this season. But it wasn’t. Not even close.

Advanced Stats – Jahan Dotson Appreciation Post

Jahan Dotson certainly isn’t the biggest receiver that Penn State has had in recent memory, but he might have made the biggest impact on the field. In 2020 and 2021, whenever Penn State has needed a play they turned to No. 5 and, time and time again, he delivered incredible catches, big gains, and touchdowns. For all the talk about what the season could’ve been if Clifford didn’t get hurt against Iowa, where would this team be if Dotson didn’t flip from UCLA late in the recruiting process four years ago? It’s scary to think about. But thankfully he did flip…and the rest has been history.

Were hoping this isn’t the case but with a lower-tier bowl game on tap and 1^st or 2^nd Round NFL Draft status cemented, it’s possible Dotson might have just played his final game in Blue and White. Therefore, let’s give the man a deserving stage today take a look at where his stats stack up against Penn State’s premier WRs of the 21^st century: Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and KJ Hamler.

But first, why don’t we analyze Penn State’s WR unit as a whole. Going back to 2009 (as far as I can go back for individual season-by-season stats today) which is now nearly 13 full seasons, the 274 receiving yards per game for the 2021 season is the 2^nd most prolific season in terms of receiving yards behind only 2017 with 290 yards.

In terms of receiving TDs, the 2021 Nittany Lions generated 2 receiving TDs per game, which is tied for the 3^rd best in the last 13 years (behind 2016 and 2017). With the overall stage set, we want to examine how big Jahan Dotson’s contribution was compared to the other No. 1 WRs who’ve run through the program recently.

In terms of just receptions, in 2021 Dotson was responsible for 31.8% of Penn State’s production (Parker Washington had 19.9% and Keandre Lambert-Smith had 10.8%). Only Allen Robinson in 2013 at 37.9% had a higher share of receptions than Dotson did in 2021.

In terms of yardage share, in 2021 Dotson was responsible for 34.6% of Penn State’s total receiving yards which is the 3^rd most behind Robinson’s 44% in 2013 and Godwin’s 38% in 2015. Dotson led the team in share in 2020 with 32.5%, good for 4^th on the list. Penn State’s offensive dependency rivals that of two guys (Godwin and Robinson) who are top 25 wide receivers in the NFL right now.

Jahan Dotson currently ranks 4^th on the Penn State career receiving leaders list at 2,757 yards (Bobby Engram – 3,026, DaeSean Hamilton – 2,842, and Deon Butler – 2,771) and assuming he plays and has a decent bowl game, he’ll easily move up to No. 2. Keep in mind, Jahan’s 2020 season was only 9 games long and his career will have spanned 48 total games. Hamilton played in 53 games. Bobby Engram played in just 45 games and only had 40 yards receiving as a freshman – which really puts his dominance in context.

With his 2 touchdowns against MSU, Dotson now has 25 receiving TDs for his career, which is tied for 2^nd all-time with former All-American WR Kenny Jackson (1980-1983) and behind only Bobby Engram’s 31. Jahan had zero receiving TDs in his freshman year and then had 5 in 2019, 8 in 2020 (9 games), and 12 this year. The growth that he’s shown in his ability to become both a reliable deep threat (see: Wisconsin game) and also make guys miss with yards-after-catch (see: Indiana game) has been impressive and is reminiscent of how KJ Hamler played.

To summarize, Jahan Dotson was easily the most important weapon in an offense that was more productive in the passing game than most others in recent PSU history. He’ll be remembered as one of the most prolific receivers in Penn State history. We will (should) get one more opportunity to admire his unique skillset and marvel at his hands, speed, agility, and leadership. Once the clock turns to 2022, Jahan will be off to the NFL and the Nittany Lions will have a huge hole to fill. But, there’s a certain sophomore from Fort Bend County, Texas (Parker Washington, for those geographically challenged readers) who has already shown a knack for big plays and circus catches. Something tells me we’re going to be talking about No. 3 in the same breath as Dotson, Hamler, and Godwin soon.