Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – PSU vs. Michigan

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Introduction

There’s no sugarcoating it: As a fan, that absolutely sucked.

After a quarter of play it looked like Penn State would play the role of spoiler against the Wolverines. The Nittany Lions dominated total yards in the initial stanza to the tune of 145 to 15, drove deep in Michigan territory in each of their first two possessions while the defense ushered the winged helmets off the field with two 3-and-outs. But, despite that yardage discrepancy, Penn State could only muster 3 points, which allowed Michigan to keep doing Michigan things and not panic. The emotional rollercoaster that ensued proved far more stressful than entertaining as we watched Erick All effectively seal the deal with a 47-yard touchdown reception.

Quick Hitters

1. Going into the game, one thing that I highlighted was Michigan’s ability to prevent HAVOC on offense. Before Saturday’s contest, Michigan had the best HAVOC avoidance in FBS since at least 2009, allowing Havoc plays (TFL, sacks, turnovers) on 5% of their offensive plays (the average is 13%). Well, Penn State managed to generate HAVOC on 10% of the Wolverine plays (1 TO, 2 sacks, 4 TFL) and the Michigan offense also had several false starts. HAVOC generation on defense was going to be the difference between victory and defeat for Penn State. Who knows, another sack here, another TFL there, and perhaps the final outcome flips?
2. Speaking of HAVOC avoidance….oh boy, Penn State’s offense. For the season they were exactly average, with a 14% HAVOC allowance. And while the Wolverines defense features the best DE tandem in college football, had only caused HAVOC on 13% of plays prior to the Penn State game. Therefore, you might of thought HAVOC wouldn’t have been a huge issue. Well, you’d be wrong. Michigan racked up 7 sacks, 12 TFLs, and 1 turnover. That’s 20 HAVOC plays on 86 offensive snaps. That’s, like, a lot. Specifically, that’s a 23% HAVOC rate. The Wolverines 19 combined sacks and TFLs for was only two less than they’ve had in their LAST 4 COMBINED GAMES! Downright sickening.
3. On the season, the Penn State offense averages 4.8 points per Red Zone attempt (70^th nationally) and the Michigan defense allowed 4.7 points/RZA (50^th nationally). It’s neither a strength nor weakness for either team. On Saturday, Penn State reached the red zone four times and generated 13 points (3.25 points/RZA) – which is substantially below (1.45 points less per trip) its season average. 1.45 x 4 = 5.8 points. That’s pretty much the difference in the game.

Basic Statistics

As I mentioned above, the Nittany Lions had 145 of yards on 33 plays (4.4 yards-per-play) in the first quarter. The 4.4 isn’t particularly impressive but the 145 yards and holding the ball for 11:42 were great signs from an offense that has struggled to be consistent all season, especially after Sean Clifford’s injury. Sadly, it didn’t last long. The consistent theme of inconsistency returned in the 2^nd quarter and continued throughout the game. The Nittany Lions gained only 26 yards in quarter two and 332 total for the game (187 after the 1^st quarter). Michigan, on the other hand, completely flipped the script. After gaining only 15 yards in the 1^st, the Wolverines managed 136 in the 2^nd, and 361 for the game.

The theme of coming up a bit short vs. Michigan is consistent with most of our basic stats today. Michigan out-rushed Penn State 144 to 109 (and 0.9 yard-per-carry). The Wolverines had a markedly better yard-per-pass attempt (7.5 to 5.1) but the total passing yards were very close. Arnold Ebiketie’s demolishing of Cade McNamara in the 4^th Quarter evened out the turnover column.

Rambling Commentary

Today, instead of the normal dive into some advanced stats (which we covered in the Quick Hitters) we just need to vent. To me, this ranks as the most painful loss of the year. You couldn’t chalk it up to an injury like Iowa or a game that they weren’t supposed to win like Ohio State. This was a game where Penn State fought back from an 8-point deficit in the 4^th quarter to take a lead despite some bad miscues early in the contest. And still, that fight wasn’t enough, and the Lions found a way to lose.

The aforementioned basic stat comparison of this game is a microcosm of the season for Penn State. The Lions are a team that seems close to being good but has come up just short in some facet for the majority of the past month. Whether it’s deficiencies in backup QB play against Iowa, repeatedly slipping on banana peels against Illinois, disastrous turnovers against Ohio State, or the offensive line getting dominated against Michigan, the 2021 installation of Penn State just doesn’t seem to have enough of the clichéd IT. As a team, the Lions lack an identity. Defensively, we’ve discussed “bend don’t break” ad nauseum and I suppose that’s an identity. But, the defensive line has been decimated by injuries and struggles to put pressure on the quarterback, tackling issues still arise within our linebacker corps, and the cornerbacks get flagged or give up big plays too often. The offense isn’t going to run it down your throat, nor will it really light you up through the air. Except for “isolate and hope Jahan does something awesome” there’s nothing that they can run with any consistency and reliability. Even special teams has had issues in the field goal game that have prevented wins. Everywhere you look there are still holes that better teams can exploit when Penn State is playing well and bad teams can exploit when they’re playing poorly.

Don’t get me wrong; the defense has been very good, especially when it comes to scoring. In their wins, they’re allowing a mere 12.5 points, and in the losses, they’ve allowed 23, 20 (10 in regulation), 26, and 21 points for an average of 22.5 points. An average of 23 points allowed would be 38^th nationally but going into Saturday Penn State was 9^th in FBS points allowed. But the reliance on “bend don’t break” is a dangerous thing. Consistent bending and flexing builds fatigue in the system. That fatigue will eventually lead to more and more breaks and some of that is what we may have seen on the last scoring drive for the Wolverines.

Going into the day, the Penn State defense was on the field for a whopping 620 snaps this season but had only allowed 5 plays of 40+ yards. That’s fewer than 1 in 100. In the 60 odd snaps leading up to the 47-yard TD, Penn State’s defense allowed merely 2 plays of over 20 yards (21 and 25) which is very good. But then the break came, and it cost the game.

When the offense is on the field, you would like to think there’s some philosophy that can reliably gain 2 or 3 yards when it’s absolutely critical (think 4^th and goal at the 2 or the 2 point conversions against Illinois). But this offense doesn’t have it. Great teams can line up and, even when the defense knows what’s coming, can convert with some form of dominance. Maybe the Penn State offense’s identity is “chaos” and unpredictability. But if it is, that relies on incredible execution in myriad sets, formations, and play types and they do not execute at a high enough rate to play that type of offense. And the offensive line play prevents them from being more predictable. When Wisconsin or Iowa (good, system teams) are faced with 4^th and 1 or 2, they run QB sneak. Everyone on the field, in the stands, and watching on the TV know that it’s coming but they still do it and are typically successful. It’s basic and built on force and it’s the type of thing that’s missing from this Penn State team.

The need for an identity may seem abstract and/or like a rhetorical ask but great teams have either incredible strengths (think 2019 LSU offense or 2011 Alabama defense) or have few and minor weaknesses (2021 Ohio State seems a reasonable example). The 2021 Nittany Lions are not a great team. They have a very good, but not generational, defense. And they have an offense with glaring weaknesses that teams on equal or better footing with respect to talent or coaching can exploit. We all root for playoffs and for the team to take “the next step.” That will not come until they figure out who they are, what their football identity is, and for everyone in the building – players, coaches, staff – to commit 100% to that mission.