Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – PSU vs. Maryland

Sponsor: Hey, it’s us! For The Blogy! Join our 2021 FTB Donors Club – the best way for you to show your support and keep this train rolling – and receive an exclusive FTB zipper bottle Koozie as a gift! Sign up HERE. 

*Please remember to click the ‘Share My Address With For The Blogy’ box when checking out so we know where to mail your gift!

Introduction

Penn State is back in the win column, which makes pounding out this piece way more fun than the previous three. So, hey, we’re off to a sunny start!

Now for the dark cloud…

Despite registering the 6^th W of the season, there remains concern about this instillation of Penn State ever becoming a complete team. The run game looked better, especially with respect to the performances of Noah Cain and Keyvone Lee. Jahan Dotson gave his usual superstar performance. The defense limited Maryland to a very low point total and the game was sealed with an interception by a former Lackawanna Falcons safety, Ji’Ayir Brown. With that established, the offense only gained 2.8 yards-per-rush; the defense surrendered more than 400 yards, which is too many, and though it felt like the Nittany Lions had complete control, and the game was still technically in doubt with under 10 minutes remaining. So, a win’s a win but there are still things to explore and issues to fix.

Quick Hitters

1. Against the Terps, the Penn State kickoff team had to tackle somebody for the first time all year. Yes, you read that right. Through eight games, every Jordan Stout kickoff resulted in a touchback…until yesterday. And wouldn’tcha know it, the Nittany Lions coverage team starred! Maryland 5-star WR Rakim Jarrett was held to 11 yards his lone return opportunity. Therefore, the Nittany Lions lead the nation in kickoff return defense. Hang the banner!
2. Not sure if this got mentioned in any other media outlet, but Jahan Dotson is amazing — 11 receptions, 242 yards and 3 TDs. Yep, amazing. The dude is an unbelievably talented and productive wide receiver.
3. Way back in August, we published a piece forecasting the projected performance of Penn State’s quarterbacks. Wanna check-in on our progress? Cool, let’s do it. Through nine games, the PSU passing game is averaging: 38 attempts/game (prediction: 34); 62.2 completion-% (prediction: 61%); 7.3 yards/attempt (prediction: 8.5); 278 yards/game (prediction: 289); 1.9 TD/game (prediction: 2.25); 2.1 to 1 TD/INT ratio (prediction: 3.9 to 1). So, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. I feel good about the comp-%, total yards per game, and TD numbers. The yards/att and TD/INT ratio need some help.

Basic Statistics

If you didn’t know the score of the game and only saw a list of the basic stats – not sure how this would happen, but if it did — you’d very likely think that the game was much closer than a 17-point win for Penn State. And up until Maryland’s second turnover, you’d be right. Ji’Ayir Brown’s interception sealed the deal and extended the 10-point Nittany Lion lead to 17. But before that, there were times where Maryland moved the ball exceptionally well (the Terps’ initial TD drive comes to mind). Maryland’s 419 yards of offense against the vaunted Penn State defense was the second-highest total allowed this season — trailing the 466 yards Ohio State posted 7 days earlier. Similarly, the 4.9 yards-per-play allowed was the 2^nd worse of the year. But, yards don’t dictate the outcome – see Penn State-Ohio State 2016. Points do. And the defense held tough when the Terps got into Nittany Lion territory. In four red zone trips, Maryland scored two TDs and committed two turnovers. Overall, Maryland crossed Penn State territory 8 times and came away with 14 total points. Not bad.

On the flip side, the Mike Yurcich offense over the past few games has seemed to become very binary. It’s either an explosive/efficient touchdown drive that makes you think Penn State is on the verge of putting up 50 points, or it’s a disastrous/uninspired 3-and-out. Perhaps that a tad hyperbolic (purposely hyperbolic) but in the moment, that’s how it feels. But, excluding Villanova, this is the 2^nd-highest yardage output of the season, trailing the 493 tallied against Ball State. Additionally, Penn State’s 7.7 yards-per-pass attempt (YPA) was a marked improvement over the previous 3 losses. Obviously, a huge chunk of that 7.7 was gained on Jahan Dotson’s 86-yard TD catch. But, that play happened and it counts (thankfully).

Advanced Stats is Looking Ahead

Each week on Wednesday or Thursday, sometimes Friday, I put my official (very official) @PSU_Analytics game preview on Twitter for all the world to see. These previews show some of the advanced stats we care about and how Penn State and their opponent match-up in those categories. Then, it has a score prediction based off an advanced proprietary algorithm that never fails in guessing a score. Note that “accurately predicting” the score is very different than “guessing” the score. Never ones to let semantics get in the way of a good time, we’re going use our stats to look ahead to “Sorta White Out #2” that is the huge match-up this coming Saturday at Beaver Stadium against the hated Michigan Wolverines. Full disclosure, I haven’t yet done the game prediction, but I am nearly 100% sure that it will have Penn State losing. I think Penn State win this weekend no matter what my stupid equation says. So take that, math. Anyway, here we go!

First, we’ll look at the offenses. But before we begin, if you’ve been around these parts you know a few things: 1. All the data throws out FCS opponents; 2. Havoc and Havoc Avoidance measure a team’s ability to generate or avoid Havoc (turnovers, tackles-for-loss, or sacks); 3. Offensive and defensive effectiveness are fairly complicated metrics that combine ball control and scoring explosiveness. If you’re new here, now you know what the hell the next several hundred words will be about. You’re welcome.

The graph below highlights the offenses for Michigan (Yellow) and Penn State (blue) thus far in the season. We start with Havoc avoidance where we see a huge advantage for the Wolverines (lower is better). An average team allows Havoc during 14% of the plays it’s on offense – roughly one fumble lost, or interception, or sack, or TFL will happen in about 1 out of every 7ish/8ish snaps. At this point, Penn State is a perfectly average Havoc avoidance football team. Michigan is well above-average in this same metric, allowing these HAVOC plays to happen only 5% of the time (1 out of 20 snaps). Since 2009, the Wolverines currently have the single best Havoc avoidance number of any FBS team during that time period. Precisely three other teams have finished the whole season below 6% (2018 Army – 5.6%; 2020 Buffalo – 5.3%; 2020 Washington – 5.2%). The Wolverines have allowed only 19 TFLs, 6 sacks, 4 INTs, and 3 lost fumbles in 639 plays. For Penn State to win this weekend the Lions defense must do better that the previous 9 teams have against the Michigan offense.

Because when bad stuff isn’t happening, good things likely are. As such, Michigan’s 39.8 yards gained per drive (YPD) ranks 20^th in FBS. Their 31.9 points-per-10 possessions (PP10) ranks 13^th and the Wolverines overall offensive effectiveness ranks 19^th. So, yes, the Wolverine offense is in the top tier of the nation this year and only Ohio State is better in the Big Ten. Compare these stats and rankings to Penn State and, well, there’s really no comparison. The Lions rank 100^th in yards-per-possession; 84^th in points-per-possession; and 73^rd in OE. Now, there the initial two losses of the season two(Iowa and Illinois) dragged the Lions offense down considerably. Going into Iowa, Penn State’s numbers were 33.7 YPD; 23.8 PP10; and 30.3 OE. The Penn State offense that was on display versus Auburn, Indiana, and Ohio State (minus the turnovers) needs to show up on Saturday.

Turning to the defense, we see a couple of evenly matched squads. In scoring (PP10P Allowed) Penn State (13.4) ranks 8^th nationally and Michigan (14.1) is 10^th. In YPD allowed, Penn State is 27^th (bend don’t break) and Michigan is 10^th (bend less). Finally, in Defensive Effectiveness, they’re tied for 8^th. Both teams are average in generating Havoc but in the other metrics – they range from good to fantastic.

One thing to consider though is the slate of opponents. Michigan’s opponents average a rank of 80^th for Offensive Effectiveness, which likely aids some of those excellent defensive stats. But Penn State’s opponents (very coincidentally) also average 80^th. For the offensive stats, the Wolverine’s opponents average a Defensive Effectiveness rate of 64^th whereas Penn State’s opponents rank 47^th so this may even things out a bit against Michigan.

So what do we think? Certainly Michigan’s offense has been more consistent and better through the year than Penn State’s but it’s come against somewhat lower-end defenses (except Wisconsin whom they scored 38 points against). I have no doubt that Penn State’s win against Maryland will give the team confidence. There are still things to play for (a NY6 bowl is in reach if they win out). Can the Lions finally get a win against a top-10 team this year though? Time will tell but I bet the third time is the charm here. What does the model say? We’ll save that for Thursday.