Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – PSU vs. Iowa

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Introduction

Oh man, what a terrible loss. After winning nine straight games following the home loss to Iowa in 2020, the Nittany Lions’ streak is over. The team jumped on top of the Hawkeyes 17-3 and then the bottom dropped out when Sean Clifford left the contest with an apparent upper body injury. After he departed, Iowa outscored Penn State 20-3. The difference in offensive performance before Clifford’s injury and after was stunning. It’s borderline masochistic to evaluate the team before and after Cliff left the game but that’s what I’m going to do. I hate that Penn State lost the game but I also firmly believe they were the better team and it makes me feel better to show it.

Quick Hitters

1. In perhaps the most stereotypical Big Ten thing ever, both punters played HUGE roles in determining Saturday’s outcome. Penn State’s Jordan Stout continued to bomb the ball, blasting several punts out of the end zone. On the afternoon/evening, Stout averaged a fantastic 50.4 yards per punt on five attempts. Not to be outdone, Iowa’s Tory Taylor (who might have been the Hawkeyes MVP) punted 9 times for an average of 44 yards and placed six of those kicks inside the 20.
2. Penn State’s defense was Penn State’s defense. By that we mean they were elite. 11 TFLs, 3 sacks. 1 turnover. Despite defending a short field for what felt like the entire second half, Brent Pry’s group kept Penn State in the game for 60 minutes.
3. Today had to be the worst day for drops that the team has had all year and it hurt them in some untimely moments. It would’ve likely only taken a few more plays here or there to turn this game around.

Basic Statistics

Penn State lost virtually every category listed in the Basic Stats table. With that established, the Nittany Lions did hold Iowa to 305 total yards and 4.0 yards-per-play – both well below the Hawkeyes’ season averages. On the other side of the ball, PSU generated 287 yards on offense, which is more than the Hawkeyes typically allow. The defense ended up on the field for nearly 36 minutes which is too much to sustain as were the four turnovers that the offense allowed (3 before the game was truly over).

If you look at the table above, there’s obviously lots of green on the wrong side of the ledger. Iowa tallied 86 yards on two pass completions, including the 44-yarder that proved to be the winning score. Take those big gainers out of the equation and the Nittany Lions defense surrendered only 219 yards on 74 plays for a 2.9 YPP. Of course, you CAN’T take those two plays out of the equation. They happened. Point is Penn State’s defense was stingy.

Advanced Stats – A Tale of Two Halves Redux

Way back in early September when we published our Wisconsin ABC’s blog entry, we mentioned how the game flipped dramatically at halftime – from hard-to-watch offensive ineptitude in the first half to big play bonanza in the second. Same storyline yesterday…except in reverse — Penn State did what it pleased in the first half and then did nothing in the second. Actually, come to think of it, it wasn’t even really a half against the Hawkeyes. Sean Clifford’s last play occurred with 12:34 left in the 2^nd quarter. Before I bothered looking it up, it seemed like he played longer, didn’t it? Regardless, Mike Yurcich, Sean Clifford, and the entire Penn State offense were humming for those 17 and half minutes of football. Then, Clifford went to the locker room, returned in a blue t-shirt, and the offense came to a screeching halt. As painful as it is, let’s take a closer look at various statistical categories that offer further context to the rapid 60 to 0 deceleration of the Nittany Lions attack.

Efficiency

Let’s start with the efficiency metrics – Yards-per-Drive (YPD) and Points-per-Drive (PPD). Coming into the game the Penn State offense averaged 33.7 YPD, which ranked 57^th in the FBS – basically average, not good but not bad. Conversely, the Iowa Defense enter Saturday’s showdown allowing just 20.6 YPD, good for 6^th in the FBS.

Oh boy. Yeah, those numbers in the YPD table are stunning. On Penn State’s initial five drives – which includes its 1-Play, ZERO-yard WTH possession that ended with an interception — the offense managed 210 yards, good for 42 YPD. That average was twice as much as the Hawkeyes normal allowance and even bested Penn State’s average for the entire season. After Clifford went out, however, different story. If you count penalty yardage lost, Penn State managed just 4.4 YPD on 11 possessions. Penn State’s initial touchdown march traveled 75 yards. Every possession that Ta’Quan Roberson captained gained 77 yards total.

Similar trend when it comes to scoring. Prior to the Iowa game, averaged 2.4 PPD this season, which again made them incredibly average (55^th overall) compared to other FBS teams. When you consider the level of competition on the schedule thus far, that output isn’t great but it’s also not that bad. On defense, Iowa was allowing 0.9 PPD this season – tied for second best in all of FBS with Penn State, and just half-a-point behind UGA’s 0.4. Well, once again, with Clifford Penn State far exceeded Iowa’s allowance and topped their own season average by scoring 3.4 PPD. On the season, 3.4 PPD would rank in the top 15 among all FBS teams. After Clifford left, the Lions managed 0.3 PPD. That number would rank last in the FBS this season. The combined number of 23 points on 16 drives yields 1.4 PPD – bottom 20 in FBS. Not good.

Explosivity and Tempo

We explained Explosivity and Tempo back in our Week 1 ABCs article. For those who missed it, or failed to take notes, here’s some background for you: Tempo and Explosive Plays are the hallmarks of Mike Yurcich’s offense. As an offensive coordinator, Yurcich’s teams at Oklahoma State and Texas averaged 2.66 plays per minutes – which makes them faster than any Penn State offense, even Bill O’Brien’s 2012 group with its NASCAR packages. Additionally, Yurcich has produced some of the best Explosivity ratings (Yards x Points/100 plays/game) in modern college football – more explosive than Joe Moorhead’s record-setting 2016 and 2017 Penn State offenses.

An average team runs 2.4 plays per minute they possess the ball. The fastest team in FBS this season is UTSA. The appropriately named Roadrunners run 3 Plays/min of possession. After Clifford went out, Mike Yurcich kept the pace fast (2.9 Plays/min of possession) although those figures are somewhat misleading because of the large quantity of incomplete passes. When Clifford was in though, they ran a blistering 3.9 Plays/min per possession. If the Lions were able to keep that pace going along with the productivity they had early on, the Iowa defense may have been gassed by the 3rd quarter and this game would’ve looked much different.

Coming into the game, the Penn State offense had an average Explosivity rating while Iowa was 3^rd best in the nation at holding teams from being explosive (Point*Yard / 100-Plays). While Clifford was in the game, Penn State hit an Explosivity value of 3.0, which would be 5^th best in the country. They basically went to zero after he left.

In summary, the offense was…different after Sean Clifford left the game. I’m paraphrasing but Wendy’s spokesperson Reggie Bush called Iowa’s defense the best unit he’s ever seen during the Outlet Mall College Gameday show Fox airs. Well, when Clifford was QB, Penn State dissected that same defense. The Nittany Lions were on their way to a dominant victory but it was derailed by a legal and unfortunate hit on Sean Clifford. That one hit may have been the single biggest play in the Big Ten all season, especially if he can’t come back by Ohio State – 21 days from this Iowa loss. The various charts listed above illustrate how vital Clifford’s health will be to Penn State’s future success.