Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – PSU vs. Illinois

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Introduction

“Oh man, what a terrible loss.” – Me, Oct. 9, 2021.

“Oh man, what a terrible loss.” – Me, Oct. 23, 2021.

Hope – the most dangerous of four-letter words – rested on the figurative shoulders and literal “right torso” (as ABC’s sideline reporter kept calling it, as if humans have two) of QB1 Sean Clifford following a disappointing, but excusable, setback at Iowa. And then Saturday happened. What began as a foregone conclusion on Tuesday – no way Clifford plays vs. Illinois, but no way Penn State loses to Illinois, either – turned into the most unpleasant surprise in recent memory – Oh wow, Clifford’s starting, and Oh Wow, Penn State lost to a bunch players the opposing coach doesn’t want on the roster. In the most ‘Big Ten’ of Big Ten games, Illinois posted 10 times more rushing yards than passing yards but couldn’t really score, as Penn State’s ‘Bend but Don’t Break’ defense once again showed off its Stretch Armstrong pliability. The Nittany Lions offense, with a clearly hobbled quarterback, couldn’t muster enough production to score more than 10 points in 60 minutes of play against an Illini defense that was allowing 28.7 points per game prior to Saturday.

Basic Statistics

The simple stuff today looks as bad, or worse, than it did against Iowa…which is pretty darn depressing. The unwanted Illini dominated the Nittany Lions in total yards, rushing, and time-of-possession. Penn State won the turnover battle by 3…yet still somehow lost the game, which is rare. Like really rare. How rare, you ask? In 2014 the guru of CFB analytics (Bill Connelly) wrote about just how rare it is. Games where a one team finishes +3 in the TO margin occur 11.8% of the time. Those teams that enjoyed a +3 TO margin won 78% of those games by an average of 18.2 points. Penn State didn’t, and that’s frustrating.

Other than the lopsided turnover margin, the fact that Illinois had 38 passing yards and still won is sickening. That’s something that would’ve been acceptable in 1921, not in 2021. Actually, come to think of it, then-PSU coach Hugo Bezdek probably wouldn’t have been cool with it, either. So, yeah, not good. Unless you’re playing America’s bravest (the service academies) it’s inexcusable to lose to an offense as one-dimensional as Illinois was yesterday. Bret’s bunch ran several plays with 9 (NINE!) big eaters on line of scrimmage with zero wide receivers…and they worked, as Illinois ripped off chunk plays drive after drive. The way that the Nittany Lions’ defensive front got beaten up is is concerning as they travel to Columbus in five days (more on that game later in the week).

Recent Historic Context – Bringing the ‘C’ Back to the ABC’s with Quick Hitters

Today, rather than some advanced stat discussion, we’re going to look at this loss in the context of the James Franklin era at Penn State. As we try and draw parallels between this soul-sucking setback and other day-ruining performances from the past, here are 18 stats (one for each point scored against the Illini) that will help us put this game in perspective.

1. Saturday’s tilt vs. Illinois was the 95^th game of James Franklin’s tenure. The loss dropped his overall record to 65-30 (68.4 winning percentage).
2. For the 7^th time under James Franklin, Penn State is currently on a losing streak. Three of those losing streaks extended to 3 or more games. In the other 3 losing streaks, Penn State righted the ship after two games with wins vs. Boston College (2014), Rutgers (2017), and Indiana (2018).
3. Penn State’s 18 points scored marked the 21^st time a Franklin team had scored <20. Not surprisingly, Penn State is 5-16 in such games. Twelve (12) of those games came with John Donovan employed as the OC (again, not surprisingly), 5 under Ricky Rahne, 2 under Yurcich (Illinois and Wisconsin), and 1 each for Kirk Ciarrocca and Joe Moorhead.
4. Penn State’s defense allowed 20 points yesterday (in 60 minutes of gameplay, 2 “normal” overtime periods; and 7 moronic/gimmicky overtimes). That’s the 48^th game where the Lions’ defense allowed 20 or fewer points. Penn State is 44-4 when surrendering no more than 20 points. The other 3 losses were 2014 Maryland, 2014 Michigan, and 2014 Illinois.
5. As mentioned earlier, a +3 TO margin should lead to a win. Below is PSU’s record by TO margin under James Franklin:

So in total, when PSU wins the TO battle they are 39-4 (91 winning percentage). The other losses were: 2017 OSU, 2019 OSU, and 2015 Michigan.

6. The 227 yards gained by the Nittany Lion offense was the 8^th worst output under James Franklin – one of 18 games where the Nittany Lions failed to reach 300 total yards. When Franklin’s troops fail to generate 300 total yards, Penn State’s is 4-14.
7. Penn State’s 62 rushing yards was 12^th worst since 2014 and was one of 32 games where the Nittany Lions didn’t eclipse the 100-yard mark under Franklin. In those 32 games, Penn State is 15-17.
8. Sean Clifford’s 4.9 yards per passing attempt (YP) passing was the 13^th worst for a Penn State QB since 2014 and the 15^th game with <5 YPA. Penn State is 3-12 when they don’t throw for at least 5 YPA.
9. But…the Illinois offense generated only 1.8 YPA, which is the best performance the Lions’ defense has had in limiting opponent passing. The 38 yards passing was 2^nd best (Army in 2015 had 32 yards on 1 attempt). The Penn State defense has held opponent offenses to <5 YPA a total of 26 times. They are 22-4 in such games.
10. The YPA differential was 3.1 in favor of Penn State. When the YPA differential is zero or greater (i.e. PSU ties or wins the yard-per-pass) the Lions are 51-12 in the Franklin era (81% winning percentage).
11. The Illini rushing attack generated 5.3 yards-per-rush which is the 8^th worse the Penn State defense has allowed since 2014 and the 13^th time they’ve allowed over 5.0 YPR. Somewhat surprisingly, PSU is 7-6 when allowing 5+ YPR.
12. The 395 total yards allowed by Penn State’s defense was the 30^th worst under James Franklin. They are 15-15 when allowing as many or more yards than they did against the Illini.
13. The Illini ran 88 total plays. Penn State opponents have run 80+ plays in 20 games since Franklin’s hire. Surprisingly, Penn State is 14-6 in games where their opponents run 80 or more plays.
14. Penn State ran 63 plays against Illinois and has run 65 plays or less in 33 games since 2014. They are 21-12 in games where they run 65 or fewer plays.
15. The minus-25 play differential is the 10^th worst for the Lions.
16. The Illini gained 0.9 yards-per-play more than Penn State which represents the 17^th worst YPP differential since 2014. Under CJF, PSU has lost the YPP differential a total of 28 times. They are 9-19 when they lose the YPP battle.
17. A stat that I’ve found to be highly predictive of success/failure is points-squared-per-yard (P2PY) differential. It’s equated exactly as it sounds: Points*Points/Yards. (You need to trust me that it’s more than just a point dominant stat). Saturday, Penn State’s offense had a P2PY of 1.43 which is the 61^st best under Franklin (not good). The defense allowed a P2PY of 1.01 which is 43^rd best (not great, but decent).
18. Penn State won the P2PY differential by 0.41 (1.43-1.01). The Nittany Lions have had a better P2PY in 64 games since 2014. Penn State is 61-3 (95% winning percentage) in such games. The only other two losses were the Rose Bowl against USC and 2017 Ohio State…so two heartbreakers, just like Saturday.