Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – PSU vs. Ball State
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Introduction
Two weeks. Two quality wins.
Throughout the off-season plenty of Penn State pundits circled the Ball State sandwich date between Wisconsin and Auburn as a potential #TrapGame™. On paper, it was a valid concern. In 2020, the Cardinals went 7-1, won the MAC championship, and capped the season with a convincing bowl victory over shorthanded San Jose State. On top of that, Ball State returned 20 starters this season, 14 of which were “super seasons” as the FS1 announcers mentioned at least 10 times on Saturday. So, they had success and experience. But they didn’t have the talent, strength, speed, or coaching that Penn State had, which might explain why the Lions breezed by the Cardinals for their 300th win in Beaver Stadium. It wasn’t a complete performance, but James Franklin’s bunch showed improvements in certain areas (run game) compared to last week and, most importantly, escaped without any major injuries. The Whiteout awaits Auburn next week but before we get into that, let’s dive into some B10/MACtion crossover excitement!
Quick Hitters
- Jordan Stout update: On Saturday our do-everything kicker converted 8 of 9 PAT/FGs, punted 3 times for an average of 51.3 yards, which actually LOWERED his total for the season, and forced a touchback on every kickoff. I will accept NO more Jordan Stout hate.
- For only the third time in his career, Sean Clifford completed at least 70 percent of his passes – the other two coming early in 2019 against Buffalo and Maryland. In fact, Clifford’s more-accurate-the-usual afternoon – 21 of 29, 72% completion — marks the 11th time in the James Franklin Era that Penn State’s starting QB hit the 70 percent threshold. Lions are 11-0 in those games
- In our Mike Yurcich: QB Whisperer blog post back in August, I predicted the PSU QB stats for the year (all PSU QBs). I wrote they’d average 61% completions (currently 63%); 34 passes per game (currently 32); and 8.5 YPA (currently: 7.8). So, thus far, we’re in the ballpark! We also tabbed Penn State QBs to throw 0.6 INT/game (currently 0!!) and 2.25 TD/game (currently 1.5). It’d be nice to see the TD’s click up a bit but, overall, we are right on pace.
- Sure, Eastern Michigan – those guardians of the gray turf – isn’t a powerhouse, but even against a weaker opponent Wisconsin’s defense once again proved they’re the real deal. The Badgers allowed a total of 92 yards and 7 points against the EMU Eagles (they should totally be the EMU Emus). Penn State’s struggled last week (especially in the first half) but I would bet a considerable sum of money that Wisconsin finishes with a top 10 defense nationally.
Basic Statistics
The game against Ball State didn’t necessarily feel like a dominate performance but the Lions certainly won handily. Maybe we’re just hard to please? Every stat in our table favored Penn State including TOP which has been a weak point under CJF, no matter the OC. Even more telling is that that half of Ball State’s total yards and points came in the 4th quarter against Penn State’s backup defenders. In the initial three quarters, the Cardinals mustered a pitiful 144 yards on 49 plays (2.9 YPP).
For Penn State, a couple of things stick out to me. First, the run game started to gel on Saturday, churning out 240 yards on 48 attempts (5 YPA). Proving you can punish teams on the ground will eventually free up vertical deep shots and enhance Penn State’s blossoming under-center Play Action attack. Staying on this good-vibe wavelength, for the second week in a row, Penn State’s turnover row in the table above feature a big, fat 0! Keyvone Lee did get separated from the football on the fourth of four 10+-yard runs to start the second half, but he luckily fell on it. For the most part, Sean Clifford hasn’t forced throws into coverage. Though we seem to recall at least one dangerous, off-balance attempt that could have been picked against Wisconsin, PFF reports that Clifford has not made a ‘Turnover Worth Play’ in 2021.
Advanced Stats – Red Zone & Havoc
When opponents move the ball into the red zone vs. Penn State, it seems like the Lions defense has been lights out. When Penn State advances in the opponents’ red zone, it seems like Mike Yurcich’s offense has flickered more than a neon sign in a ghost town. I emphasized ‘seems’ because we’re eventually going to understand each situation better with actual data. Then, on the Havoc and Havoc Avoidance stats which, for new readers, highlights a defense’s ability to make bad things happen against an offense (sacks, TFL’s, fumbles, interceptions) and an offense’s ability to avoid such plays. Somewhat surprisingly, at least in these Havoc categories, Penn State’s offense hasn’t been as bad as you’d think while the defense has been as spectacular as we all think. As usual, all contextual data is from 2009-2020 and only includes FBS vs. FBS games. Let’s dig in.
To best analyze Penn State’s red zone performance, we’ll examine the Lions Points per Red Zone Appearance (PPRZA). Most often, people consider Red Zone Scoring Percentage (i.e. number of scores/ number of RZ trips) but that statistic is a tad simplistic because it values Red Zone TDs and Red Zone FGs equally. Here’s the equation for calculating PPRZA: # touchdowns scored * 7) + (# FGs scored * 3) / number of RZ trips. Below is the histogram that shows PPRZA by conference since 2009. The Big Ten is the light orange color.
As you can see, FBS teams from the recent past have averaged somewhere between 4.4 and 5.4 points per Red Zone trip. Bad team fall below 4.0 PPRZA while elite squads surpass 5.6 PPRZA. The FBS average is 4.9. However, PPRZA scores don’t directly translate to overall success. For instance, 2019 Oregon State posted the best PPRZA score since 2009 but finished with a 5-7 and only averaged 29.9 PPG. So, PPRZA is effectively our “efficiency” metric.
When it comes to Penn State and PPRZA, Ricky Rahne was our most efficient OC, averaging 5.6 points every time the ball was advanced inside the 20 (very good). In a single season Joe Moorhead’s 2017 team was the best PPRZA performer with a 5.8 value. As you probably guessed, the 2020 squad was below average: 4.3.
Through two games, the current iteration of our Nittany Lion offense has had 7 RZ attempts and generated 6 scores – 3 TDs and 3 FGs. This yields a PPRZA of 4.3 which as we stated is below average. The data generated from two games is too incomplete to worry about this becoming a definite problem throughout the season, but it is something Penn State needs to fix with marquee matchups against Auburn, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan on the horizon. Leaving points on the field will turn the close wins into close losses quickly.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Nittany Lions rank 7th in the country in Red Zone scoring allowed. They have allowed 2 TDs and 2 FGs in 8 Red Zone attempts. One of the TDs was the late score against Ball State. Again, small data sample so far and the 25% TDs/RZA will likely worsen throughout the season. However, the national leader in defensive PPRZA typically finishes around 30% TDs/RZA… so, so far, so good.
Now, HAVOC. Offense first. Historically, this is how many Havoc plays (sacks, TFL, fumbles lost, and interceptions) FBS offenses have given up since 2009.
In the histogram, you see that an average team yields between about 8-11 Havoc plays per game. On the low end of the range, Army and Air Force, extremely disciplined and run-heavy offenses show up often. On the top end (14+ Havoc plays) perennial doormats like Kansas, Rutgers and Akron are well represented.
Through two games, the 2021 Nittany Lion offense has allowed 5 sacks, 13 TFL , and zero turnovers – 9 Havoc plays/game, which is above-average and ranks in the 70th percentile historically.
One the defensive side of the ball, average FBS defenses generate 9.6 Havoc plays per game with “acceptable” qualitatively being >8 and “great” being >12.
Since 2014, Penn State defenses have averaged 12 Havoc plays per game. That’s exceptional and trails only Clemson in that time frame. Disruption has been a very strong component of Brent Pry’s defenses and, I would argue, drives the “bend but don’t break” reputation. Even if a team is in the red zone, it doesn’t guarantee they’ll stay there or that the possession won’t end in a turnover.
However, through two games in 2021, Penn State’s defense has only averaged 10 Havoc plays per contest – which is decent, but low historical expectations. Penn State has only sacked the QB 3 times, forced 12 TFL, intercepted 4 passes (which, on it’s own is great) and recovered 1 fumble. The sack number is especially low considering the Lions typically average 3 sacks per game. Havoc shows us that as well as Penn State’s defense has played early on, there exist plenty of opportunities for them to become a more disruptive unit. More sacks. More negative plays. More takeaways.
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