Analytics, Basic Stats, and Recent Historic Context: The ABC’s of Penn State Football – PSU vs. Arkansas

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Introduction

Coincidentally, Penn State’s 60-minute trajectory in the 2022 Outback Bowl mirrored most every red-blooded eater’s typical experience at game’s title sponsor.

Much like the Nittany Lions did in the first half, you roar into the place looking to devour every calorically-dense morsel in sight. Then, about halfway through (like the start of the second half) you slow down and eventually hit a wall. Finally, when the waiter comes and asks if you’ve saved any room for dessert (late stages of 4th Quarter) you puke all over yourself.

Arkansas completely dominated Penn State in the 2^nd half, outscoring the Lions 17-0 and lapping them in total yards. Following an initially sweet turned super sour 2021 campaign, we go into the off-season with a lot of uncertainty on both sides of the ball. We will have lots to write about in the off-season, but before we get there, we have one last very exciting and not at all grueling (cough), postgame wrap-up.

Just Some Random Stats

Today we’re not doing basic or advanced stats. We’re just doing stats, plain ol’ stats —  just throw a bunch of random crap against the wall because that’s what it seems like the team does on offense.

At halftime, Penn State led Arkansas 10-7. The Nittany Lions outgained the Razorbacks 230 to 172, posted 172 passing yards, and were winning the turnover battle 2-to-1. Think about that before looking at the table below…OK, go ahead and look. Sickening isn’t it?

1. In the 2^nd half, Arkansas threw the ball a total of 5 (five!) times and ran it 32 times. That’s about as one-dimensional as it gets but obviously the simple scheme it worked. More on the details later.
2. On PSU’s side, Sean Clifford ran the ball on 12 of Penn State’s 28 total attempts. Christian Veilleux had two rushes of his own. Running backs (ya know, the ones who are supposed to run the ball) totaled 10 rushes (Lee-4, Cain-5, Ford-1). What’s worse than the lack of carries for the guys who are supposed to be the main carriers? Penn State’s running backs actually looked decent for once! Collectively, Cain/Lee/Ford averaged 6.7 yards per rush.
3. For their part, the defense held the Razorbacks to 24 points. My models (I ran several) and SP+ all predicted that Arkansas would hit 24 points (i.e. spot freaking on). Unfortunately, the offense was inept and only managed 10 points (15-16 points below projection). Pretty obvious take here, but the offense is the issue that needs sorting in the offseason.
4. Remember in 2016 when the Nittany Lions made it a habit to trail at halftime and Coach Franklin would spout off “we’re a 2^nd half team” and then Penn State would come out and drop 30 points on their opponent? Yeah, us too…although those offensive eruptions are starting to feel like distant memories.  This Penn State team was the ANTI-2016 team. The 2021 Lions had 2^nd half leads in every single game this year except the Ohio State game (they were tied) and 4^th quarter leads in all other games except Michigan State and Arkansas. Therefore, in five of six losses this season Penn State blew 2^nd half leads.
5. In the Outback Bowl, the Nittany Lions were outscored 17-0 and managed only 93 yards of offense in the 2^nd half. They managed 26 total passing yards, which is 25 more than the Razorbacks’ 1 passing yard in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters, while allowing 256 rushing yards.
6. Beyond the ridiculousness of that 2^nd half discrepancy, the saddest part is that, overall, this type of offensive production is closer to “average” for the season than “bad.” In terms of yards-per-play, on the season, the Lions have averaged 5.4 YPP. Today’s 5.1 YPP ranks 9^th (better than Iowa, Illinois, OSU, and Michigan) and falls well inside the standard deviation. The 4.5 rush yard per attempt (RYPA) is the 3^rd BEST of the season (behind Ball State and Indiana) – meaning that aspect was relatively good on Saturday.
7. But the passing game did not show up (except for some exceptional plays by Parker Washington). Penn State managed only 198 yards, completed just 43% of its throws, and tallied 5.7 yards-per-attempt (10^th best for the season). In the first half, the team was 10/21 (45% – still bad) but generated 172 yards (8.2 YPA). In the 2^nd half, they went 5/14 (36%) and generated the aforementioned 26 yards (1.9 YPA). That’s bad.
8. Keyvone Lee had a 25-yard run against Arkansas. That was the 5^th longest run of the season for Penn State (Lee – 44, 33, 25; Cain – 34; Clifford – 43).
9. Arkansas’ 6.1 yard-per-rush-attempt (RYPA) was the most of the season allowed by a Penn State defense (this stat isn’t unsurprising considering the missing starters). Only Auburn, Illinois, and Ohio State had finished above 4.7 before Saturday.
10. The Arkansas passing game only managed 4.9 YPA which was the 4^th best performance by the Penn State defense for the season. Granted, when you’re averaging 6.1 RYPA, why bother passing?
11. When you combine the allowed RYPA and YPA (pass) you get 5.8 YPP allowed. Only Ohio State (6.9) and Michigan State (5.9) did better against the Lions’ defense. On the season, the defense allowed 4.7 YPP (8^th in the nation).
12. The defense struggled to stop the Razorbacks but I fault them FAR less than the offense for the loss. There were a lot of new contributors on the defensive side of the ball (and they don’t have Brent Pry). All-in-all I think they did a fine job.
13. That new-look Penn State defense generated HAVOC (sack, TFL, or turnover) on 21% of Arkansas’s offensive plays. That is the best rate of the season.
14. The offense allowed 14% HAVOC on their plays. That’s the 6^th best rate of the year. It wasn’t mistakes that killed them (although the 2^nd interception was a backbreaker). It was just a general lack of execution.

Summary

I have no idea where this team goes from here. Stats 1 through 14 highlight some big problems that need to be figured out in the next several months. Penn State is 11-11 over the past two seasons and no longer feels like a shoe-in Top 3 contender in the Big Ten East. The 2021 resurgence of the Michigan schools, Indiana’s best recruiting class EVER, and Maryland notching its first winning season since 2014 will only make a tough division even tougher.. Literally everything needs to be on the table in the offseason (probably short of switching offensive coordinators) and it’s my hope that this season felt like a slap in the face to anyone with any power inside of the program. It was a mess and the effort of the defense was absolutely wasted by an inconsistent and, frankly, subpar offense. The administration has committed to Franklin with a 10-year deal. But I promise that if Penn State posts another 7-6 season that unfolds like 2021 did, the fanbase will not be so dedicated.